Mr K - KEENELANDPICKS.COM

SUNDAY - JULY 12, 2020 - DAY 5 - SUMMER MEET

Mr. K's Play of the Day for Sunday, July 12, 2020
Race 4: This is a 6-furlong maiden dirt sprint for fillies and mares. Trainer Ben Colebrook sends out Kisses for Heidi for owner Harold "Heidi" Heidinsfelder. In her last race at Churchill, Heidi was driving for the win but Orbs Soul came over and she had to check hard denying her a chance for victory and Orbs Soul was taken down from her place posting because of it. The winner of that race went on to win in her next time out. Jockey James Graham has been riding well during this 5-day meet with 3 wins and 3 seconds. Look for him to take Heidi to the front to avoid any trouble and win this one on the cutback in distance.

THE BET: Race 4: $50 across the board on #2-KISSES FOR HEIDI

Results: After a perfect break, jockey James Graham inexplicably steadied Kisses for Heidi before the far turn losing at least 4 lengths. That put Heidi out of the race as she finished 3rd. Brutal ride. Cashed for $100.

Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Sunday, July 12, 2020
Race 9: Not only is the Elkhorn Stakes today's finale, it's the shortened Summer Meet's finale. Today both Mr. B & Mr. K are pitting long shots against one another. Mr. B likes #3-Ramsey Solution at 20-1 and I like 10-1 shot Oscar Dominguez. Trainer Richard Balthas has put this 7-year-old gelding in four races at this 1-1/2 mile distance winning once as well as a third place finish. In that victory, Oscar Dominguez posted his career buyer of 95. Normally I don't like deep stretch runners in long routes like this, but today Oscar gets jockey Joel Rosario who is arguably the best turf rider in the business. He will time today's ride perfectly and nip all of them at the wire.

THE BET: Race 9: $20 across the board on #9-OSCAR DOMINGUEZ

Results:

Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Sunday, July 12, 2020
50-cent part-wheel: (AFTER SCRATCHES) (UPDATED 11:50am)

Pick 5 Pick 4
Ticket #1 Ticket #1
Race 1: 1-3-4-6-8-10-12
Race 2: 1-4-5 1-4-5
Race 3: 2-4-5-6 2-4-5-6
Race 4: 2 2
Race 5: 3-6-8 1-3-4-6-8
Total: $126 $93
Return: ($126) ($93)


Race 5: 1-3-4-6-8
Race 6: 1-2-5-6-7 1-2-5-6-7
Race 7: 1-3-5-6-7 1-3-5-6-7
Race 8: 2-6-12 2-6-12
Race 9: 5-9 5-9-10
Total: $375 $112.50
Return: $278.45 $77.20

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SATURDAY - JULY 11, 2020 - DAY 4 - SUMMER MEET - BLUE GRASS STAKES DAY

Mr. K's Play of the Day for Saturday, July 11, 2020
Race 10: Today's Blue Grass finale goes 1-3/16th on the lawn. Trainer Ignacio Correas starts Peruvian-bred filly Kuora. She is coming off a September 2019 layoff where she won all three lifetime starts at Hipodromo de Monterrico in Lima, Peru. She won her last two by beating 15 other foes, once at 1-1/8th miles and once at 1-1/4 miles. Over the past four months, Kuoro has had a good training regimen with all of her workouts at the friendly confines of Keeneland. Look for Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith to pilot her to a win this afternoon.

THE BET: Race 10: $50 across the board on #6-KUORA

Results: Kuora chased the pace early, was in the five path into the lane, and empty in the stretch. Loss of $150.

Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Saturday, July 11, 2020
Race 9: In the featured Blue Grass Stakes, my longshot play is the Bret Calhoun-trained Mr. Big News. This colt by Giant's Causeway is regally bred for the turf but Calhoun feels that Mr. Big News is destined to be a dirt champion which starts today on the road to the Derby. In his last start at Oaklawn in April, Mr. Big News changed tactics and made one big run to nip Farmington Road in the Oaklawn Stakes. This pace in this race should be contentious with forwardly placed runners like Shiveree, Finnick the Fierce, and filly Swiss Skydiver. So Mr. Big News is going to have plenty of pace to run into. Look for him to make a sweeping move and nail the tiring leaders at the wire for the win at 10-1 morning-line odds.

THE BET: $20 across the board on #4-MR. BIG NEWS

Results: Mr. Big News chased the pace early on which was not his style. He stalled in the stretch with no kick. Loss of $60.

Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Saturday, July 11, 2020
50-cent part-wheel: (AFTER SCRATCHES) (UPDATED 12:45pm)

Pick 5 Pick 4
Ticket #1 Ticket #1
Race 1: 4
Race 2: 4-6-9-10 4-6-9-10
Race 3: 2-6 2-6
Race 4: ALL(6)2 ALL(6)2
Race 5: 3-5-7-8-9 3-5-7-8-9
Total: $120 $120
Return: $10.20 $130.55
   (4 of 5)

Race 5: 3-5-7-8-9
Race 6: 1-2-7-8-10-13 1-2-7-8-10-13
Race 7: 2-3-4-6 2-3-4-6
Race 8: 2 2
Race 9: 3-4 3-4
Total: $120 $24
Return: $6.10 ($24)
(4 of 5)
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FRIDAY - JULY 10, 2020 - DAY 3 - SUMMER MEET

Mr. K's Play of the Day for Friday, July 10, 2020
Race 4: This 5-1/2 furlong turf sprint will hopefully stay on the lawn with rain in the forecast for Friday. Trainer Wes Ward hasn't lit the first two days on fire, but this first time starter doesn't draw against much worthy competition. This field of 12 will likely stay at 12 with 4 also-eligibles so I'm pointing to a well drawn Guana Cay. This 2-year-old is in the 4-hole which should give jockey Irad Ortiz the advantage. Look for Guana Cay's turf breeding to dominate today. Both her sire and dam relished moisture in the ground. This moves her up should a brief shower come through Lexington.

THE BET: Race 4: $20 across the board on #4-GUANA CAY

Results: The 1-5 GUANA CAY ran a dismal 3rd. Worst result ever. Cashed for $21.00

Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Friday, July 10, 2020
Race 7: The Grade III-Beaumont is a 7-furlong sprint on the main track. Trainer Rudolphe Brisset typically trains his horse for the turf but Friday he sends $450,000 Fasig-Tipton purchase Slam Dunk for a try on the dirt. In her last outing in April, Slam Dunk finished dead last by 42 lengths as the post-time favorite. That would turn off most handicappers but not Mr. K. This one obviously had an issue which caused her to be pulled-up and now she comes back off a 2-month layoff at attractive odds of 15-1. This one is an alley-oop for jockey Luis Saez.

THE BET: Race 7: $20 across the board on #1-SLAM DUNK

Results: Slam Dunk stalked the pace early, then retreated finishing last. Loss of $60.

Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Friday, July 10, 2020
50-cent part-wheel: (AFTER SCRATCHES) (UPDATED 12:45pm)

Pick 5 Pick 4
Ticket #1 Ticket #1
Race 1: 1-2-3-4-6-7
Race 2: 2-4-5 2-4-5
Race 3: 1-6-7-8 1-6-7-8
Race 4: 3-4-6 3-4-6
Race 5: 2-7 2-6-7
Total: $216 $54
Return: ($216) ($54)

Race 5: 2-4-6-7
Race 6: 1-2-4-5-7-8 1-2-4-5-7-8
Race 7: 1-3-4 1-3-4
Race 8: 4-6-8-9 4-6-8-9
Race 9: 12-13 5-6-12-13
Total: $288 $144
Return: ($288) ($144)

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THURSDAY - JULY 9, 2020 - DAY 2 - SUMMER MEET

Mr. K's Play of the Day for Thursday, July 9, 2020
Race 6: This one goes 7-furlongs on the main track. Trainer Brad Cox only wins 15% with firsters and wins at 24% overall. This is quite the disparity which will resonate at the windows and make this the value play of the race. Made to Measure is making her debut as a 3-year-old and this daughter of Medaglia d'Oro has been showing all kinds of speed in the mornings along with an affinity for the Keeneland dirt surface. She has a traditional turf pedigree but she is out of an Empire Maker dam which explains her fast works. On Wednesday, the inside posts seemed favorable so with 12 horses in this sprint, I see Made to Measure having a distinct advantage. Give me a Brad Cox runner at 5-1 all day long.

THE BET: Race 6: $20 across the board on #2-MADE TO MEASURE

Results: Made to Measure was rank from the start. This is something that is unpredictable with firsters. Loss of $60.

Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Thursday, July 9, 2020
Race 8: This is a 6-furlong sprint on the dirt and features a field of 10. Trainer Chis Block has been having a rough year by Chris Block standards winning at only 10%. But year in and year out he always seems to put his Keeneland runners in a good position to put forth their best effort. Today will be no exception as Mom's Red Lipstick comes to Lexington off an 8-month layoff. This filly was sired by Race Day who is the son of Tapit. Before Race Day went to the breeding shed, he won 6 of 12 races posting triple-digit Beyer speed figures in 5 of those races. Mom's Red Lipstick's latest work was clocked at 46:1 which was the best of 97 on Independence Day. I look for her to fire bigtime on Thursday at juicy morning-line odds of 15-1.

THE BET: Race 8: $20 across the board on #4-MOM'S RED LIPSTICK

Results: Mom's Red Lipstick was inexplicably done early. Loss of $60.

Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Thursday, July 9, 2020
50-cent part-wheel: (AFTER SCRATCHES) (UPDATED 12:45pm)

Pick 5 Pick 5 Pick 4
Ticket #1 Ticket #2 Ticket #1
Race 1: 5-9-12 2-5-7-9-12
Race 2: 1-3-7 1-3-4-7 1-3-7
Race 3: 1-8-9 1-3-6-8-9 1-8-9
Race 4: 1-4-7 1-4-6-7 1-4-7
Race 5: 4-9-10 4-9 4-9-10
Total: $121.50 $400.00 $40.50
Return: ($121.50) ($400.00) ($40.50)

Race 5: 4-9-10 1-3-4-6-9-11
Race 6: 1-2-10 1-2-10-11 1-2-10
Race 7: 1-9-11 4-5-8-9-11 1-9-11
Race 8: 3-4-8 4-8 3-4-8
Race 9: 1-6-9 6-9 1-6-9
Total: $121.50 $240.00 $40.50
Return: ($121.50) ($240.00) ($40.50)

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WEDNESDAY - JULY 8, 2020 - OPENING DAY - SUMMER MEET

Mr. K's Play of the Day for Wednesday, July 8, 2020
Race 8: This 5-1/2 furlong turf sprint features two trained by Wes Ward and two trained by Mark Casse. This presents a great opportunity to get a price on the Darrin Miller-trained High Holy. Even though he is the 5-1 third choice on the morning-line, he may be forgotten at the virtual windows thus making him the value play. He shows 3 trouble lines in his 5 lifetime starts. The last being a distant 2nd to Invader in the John Battaglia Stakes at the now-demolished Turfway Park back in February. Like most of us, High Holy took the pandemic off and returns fresh. He is cutting back in distance and recently posted a bullet work of 46:3 where he was the best of 20. Look for journeyman jock Joe Rocco to bust out of the gate and never look back.

THE BET: Race 8: $20 across the board on #1-HIGH HOLY

Results: High Holy never fired. Loss of $60.

Mr. K's Longshot Play of the Day Wednesday, July 8, 2020
Race 6: This turf-mile presents an opportunity for a big score with a full field of 12 going postward. Coming off the Independence Day weekend, I am pointing to the Rusty Arnold-trained My America. This 4-year-old homebred by Medalia d'Oro broke his maiden in his 5th start last August at Ellis Park. Then he was put on the shelf for 11 months and has posted 9 works at Keeneland in preparation for today's return. The connections have had high expectations for this colt since debuting at Saratoga two years ago. Look for him to break sharply under jockey Brian Hernandez and be forwardly placed in a race devoid of speed. His pedigree will show in the stretch. My allegiance is with My America at 15-1 morning-line odds.

THE BET: Race 6: $20 across the board on #3-MY AMERICA

Results: My America led throughout and even kicked clear in the stretch but favorite Greyes Creek wore him down and headed him at the wire. My America finished 2nd at 20-1. $20 for place and show paid $266.

Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Wednesday, July 8, 2020
50-cent part-wheel: (AFTER SCRATCHES) (Updated 12:45pm)

Pick 5 Pick 5 Pick 4
Ticket #1 Ticket #2 Ticket #1
Race 1: 2-6-7 2-3-4-6-7-9
Race 2: 1-4-6 1-2-3-4-6   1-4-6
Race 3: 5-6-9 5-6-8-9-11 5-6-9
Race 4: 5-6-7 5-6-7-11 5-6-7
Race 5: 1-3-7 7 1-3-7
Total: $121.50 $300.00 $40.50
Return: $0 $21.80 $0
(Conso: 4 of 5)

Race 5: 1-3-7 1-3-4-7
Race 6: 2-3-10   2-3-5-10   2-3-10
Race 7: 3-6-8 1-3-6-7-8 3-6-8
Race 8: 1-2-6 1-2-6-9-10 1-2-6
Race 9: 3-10-14 10 3-10-14
Total: $121.50 $200.00 $40.50
Return: $10.25 $711.55 $0
(Conso: 4 of 5)