2020 Fall Meet Totals Wagered: $13,689.50 Cashed: $5,828.20 Net Profit: ($7,861.30) ROI: -57%
SATURDAY - OCTOBER 24, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Saturday, October 24, 2020 Race 9: Going BIG today on both of my best plays. The 9th race goes a mile on the turf and is the only grass race of the day. Trainer Al Stall is 0-for-17 this meet but his first visit to the winner's circle happens today. In Good Spirits is a 3-year-old Ghostzapper filly that had a win over this surface exactly a year ago today. Since then, Stall has entered her in three straight stakes including the G2-Edgewood where she ran 4th behind All-Stars; Sharing, Hendy Woods, and Lucky Betty. It appears as if she may have needed that race as she was tiring late. Today won't be the case. Watch as 40% winning jockey Miguel Mena takes her to the lead and fends off the closers for the win.
The Bet: Race 9: $100 across the board on #2-IN GOOD SPIRITS
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Saturday, October 24, 2020 Race 2: This one is on the main track going 1-1/16 miles. Truculent is a 3-year-old colt that has to find his specialty. In his eight lifetime starts, he has run at six different distances and on both turf and dirt. Earlier this meet, he nosed-out a win while wiring the field at this same distance. Those closely watching this meet would know that he won against the bias. Front-runners have been getting caught in over 90% of the dirt-routes and today he faces 5 others with only Mo's Mojo having any type of speed. Look for jockey Joe Rocco to lull them to sleep on the front-end for his 2nd consecutive victory at 8-1 morning-line odds.
The Bet: Race 2: $100 across the board on #4-TRUCULENT
Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Saturday, October 24, 2020 50-cent part-wheel: (Before Scratches)
________________________________________________ FRIDAY - OCTOBER 23, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Friday, October 23, 2020 Race 10: Today's finale is a 6-furlong sprint for maidens and I like a price-play as my Best Bet. Foolery is a first time starter as are six of the nine contestants here. This 2-year-old Distorted Humor filly is absolutely bred for the off-going, and if the Lexington meteorologist is correct, there should be some rain passing over Keeneland early this afternoon. This will be just enough to give her the edge over these rivals who won't like this surface at first asking. You should get every bit of the 8-1 morning-line odds.
The Bet: Race 10: $50 across the board on #6-FOOLERY
Results: Foolery was bumped at the break and finished a well-beaten 3rd. Cashed for $105.
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Friday, October 23, 2020 Race 3: Mr. B and Mr. K are in agreement today on our Longshot Play. Many times this ends up with a good result. In this 7-furlong sprint for maidens, First Contact is the only contestant without a race on his resume yet this year. This firster by Majesticperfection is bred for speed and by the looks of things in the mornings, this colt looks ready to fire agains a mediocre field. This colt doesn't have to wow to beat this collection of joggers. I like him at 10-1 morning-line odds.
The Bet: Race 3: $20 across the board on #7-FIRST CONTACT
Results: Competed in the first half of the race... Did not in the second half.
Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Friday, October 23, 2020 50-cent part-wheel: (Updated 12:30pm)
____________________________________________________ THURSDAY - OCTOBER 22, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Thursday, October 22, 2020 Race 8: This 7-furlong sprint pits my Best Bet versus Mr. B's Best Bet Julius. Trainer Joe Sharp brings Blackberry Wine off the shelf where this 3-year-old colt last ran 2nd by a neck at Oaklawn Park back in April. He sports the field's highest lifetime Beyer of 94 and by the looks of his morning workouts, he may just score another Beyer-top today. Look for the Calumet Farm homebred to shake loose of the other speed and win going away.
The Bet: Race 8: $50 across the board on #3-BLACKBERRY WINE
Results: Blackberry Wine dueled for the lead but gave way at the quarter-pole finishing well-back.
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Thursday, October 22, 2020 Race 9: Yesterday, Keeneland announced that the turf course will be of limited use over the remaining three days to be sure it is tip-top for the upcoming Breeders' Cup on November 6th & 7th. Both races 2 & 9 will be on the main track today. Unfortunately, I handicapped this one thinking they'd stay on the turf, but I'm sticking with my pick anyway. American Patrol is trained by Bill Mott who has an astounding 10 wins in 40 starts this meet. In today's nightcap, There happen to be 3 sons of American Pharoah going to the gate. American Patrol appears to be the best of them and like his daddy did in the 2015 BC at Keeneland, he wins today at juicy morning-line odds of 12-1.
The Bet: Race 9: $20 across the board on #11-AMERICAN PATROL
Results: SCRATCHED Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Thursday, October 22, 2020 50-cent part-wheel: (Updated 12:20pm)
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Wednesday, October 21, 2020 Race 5: This $40K Claimer goes 1-1/16 miles on the main track. Trainer Todd Pletcher ships 4-year-old gelding Intrepid Heart down from New York where he last posted his career-high Beyer of 95 in a win at Saratoga on August 5th. Pletcher did what good trainers do and gave his gelding a little time off after a best speed-fig and now cuts back a bit in distance from 1-1/8th to 1-1/6th mile distance where he is 2-for-2 lifetime. He is also 1-for-1 at Keeneland in a win here last year in his second start which only adds to the appeal.
The Bet: Race 5: $50 across the board on #2-INTREPID HEART
Results: Intrepid Heart tracked the leaders and missed place at the wire. Cashed for $55
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Wednesday, October 21, 2020 Race 3: This grass-miler is for 2-year-old maiden fillies. The weather in Lexington on Wednesday is supposed to be dry so I expect this to stay on the turf but it may come up slightly softer than expected from the last 48 hours of rain. Trainer Arnaud Delacour is winning at 29% this meet and brings first time starter Dame of Malta to Keeneland. This Runnymede Farm homebred looks well-placed against these although the way this turf is playing, they are going to have to catch the front-runners which includes 2-1 favorite Tiz Splendid News. Either way, I expect a great ride from James Graham who wins when combined with Delacour at 25%. You'll get every bit of the 10-1 morning-line odds.
The Bet: Race 3: $20 across the board on #3-DAME OF MALTA
Results: For whatever reason, the Keeneland folks made the decision to go "OFF THE TURF" today even though it appeared dry as a bone in Lexington. I still played my longshot across the board and she almost caught the 2nd place finisher only to earn the show-dough at 13-1. Cashed for $76.00
Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Wednesday, October 21, 2020 50-cent part-wheel: (Updated 12:30pm)
_________________________________________________ SUNDAY - OCTOBER 18, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Sunday, October 18, 2020 Race 4: With rain possible in the Lexington forecast, this miler on the main may come up muddy. Trainer Rich Castillo runs a small barn and is making his first start at Keeneland with 2-year-old filly Sacre Bleu. With a small sample size, Castillo is winning with firsters at 25% and is 1-for-1 in maiden claimers. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione is the leading rider of the meet with 15 wins and gets aboard today. I doubt you'll get the 6-1 morning-line odds, but let's hope for the best.
The Bet: Race 4: $50 across the board on #8-SACRE BLEU
Results: Sacre Bleu was through after a half.
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Sunday, October 18, 2020 Race 8: Today's Feature is the G3-Dowager Stakes that goes 1-1/2 miles on the lawn. With rain in the forecast, the turf will likely come up soft which will be good for this 4-year-old daughter of Declaration of War. Her daddy relished the soft-going and trainer Ian Wilkes wants a much needed win this meet where he is an astounding 0-for-36. This filly will be overlooked in the betting as the remaining five horses in the field look superior on paper. Wilkes was confident enough to run her in the G1-LaTroien on Derby day where she was overmatched running against Monomoy Girl and Lady Kate. Neither of those gals show up today. I see returning jockey Julien Leparoux to change tactics a bit and run closer to the front in the route contest. Expect the morning-line odds of 10-1 to hold-up, if not go off even higher.
The Bet: Race 8: $20 across the board on #1-WITH DIGNITY
Results: With Dignity stalked the pace on the inside and couldn't get any closer than 3rd. Cashed for $26.
Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Sunday, October 18, 2020 50-cent part-wheel: (Updated 12:18pm)
____________________________________________________ SATURDAY - OCTOBER 17, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Saturday, October 17, 2020 Race 3: I don't particularly like giving you my best bet in a low-level claimer, but a winner is a winner no matter how contentious the race is. This $10K claimer goes 6 furlongs on the main track. Trainer Bob Hess is already 2 for 4 at the Fall Meet. Both of his wins were in similar conditions as this one. Kiffle is a 4-year-old filly that last ran in April winning by 7 lengths in a 6-1/2 furlong race at Gulfstream. She took the summer off which is a concern, but her bullet work on September 20th tells me that there will be no worries today. Hess garners the services of jockey Tyler Gaffalione who is the meet's leading jockey. She wins for fun on Saturday.
The Bet: Race 3: $50 across the board on #5-KIFFLE
Results: Kiffle dueled with Champagne Bling down the stretch and was denied the win running second. Cashed for $117.50.
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Saturday, October 17, 2020 Race 9: Today's Feature is the Raven Run Stakes that goes 7-furlongs on the main track. Four Graces and Venetian Harbor will attract most of the money which will likely boost the odds on my 10-1 longshot play of Secret Keeper. This 3-year-old Into Mischief filly draws the outside post this afternoon which will benefit her greatly as this allows jockey Brian Hernandez to eyeball the favorites on his inside. I look for this Cali-shipper to stalk the leaders and pull the big upset as a huge overlay.
The Bet: Race 9: $20 across the board on #10-SECRET KEEPER
Results: Secret Keeper stumbled at the start and never really got involved. Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Saturday, October 17, 2020 50-cent part-wheel: (Updated 11:55am)
_________________________________________________ FRIDAY - OCTOBER 16, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Friday, October 16, 2020 Race 2: Trainer Wes Ward has not been dominating this meet like he has over recent years. In this low-level $8K Claimer on the dirt, Hetty G. ships in from New York where this daughter of Super Saver made every pole a winning one at Belmont. She appears to be back in form but I'm wary of the reasons why she's dropping to level. If she doesn't scratch, I see her running the same race as her last and getting her connections a winner's circle photo this afternoon.
The Bet: Race 2: $50 across the board on #3-HETTY G.
Results: Winner! Hetty G. took over in the stretch and was never threatened. Cashed for $225.
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Friday, October 16, 2020 Race 5: This distance of 1-1/8th miles is not typical for mid-level maidens. That being said, they still wrote this race and attracted a field of eight. Trainer Carlo Vaccarezza is dropping Poppy's Prize down from two straight MSW $81K's at Churchill into this $30K claimer. Although he lost his last two by a combined 41 lengths, today he faces much easier company. His work right here at Keeneland on October 3rd where he went 4 furlongs in 47.3 was the 9th best of 104. This tells me all I need to know. Look for him to go off higher than his morning-line odds of 12-1.
The Bet: Race 5: $20 across the board on #8-POPPY'S PRIZE.
Results: A valiant effort by Poppy's Prize only to run 2nd to Jacks Fire Balls who was much the best. Cashed for $194.
Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Friday, October 16, 2020 50-cent part-wheel: (Updated 12:50pm)
____________________________________________________ THURSDAY - OCTOBER 15, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Thursday, October 15, 2020 Race 8: Today's Feature is the 1-1/2 mile G3-Sycamore Stakes on the grass. Trainer Graham Motion gets his share of European shippers sent his direction. Ziyad is a France-based 5-year-old turf route specialist that has run 22 times and winning 6. Even though this gelding has not won any of his last four races, he ran admirably and only lost by 4 lengths to Euro-Champions Anthony Van Dyck and Stradivarius in his last. It appears to me that this is stepping-stone to a race on Breeders' Cup weekend in 3 weeks. Even if Ziyad is a step slow in his US debut, he should be good enough to beat this field. Look for jockey Manny Franco to coast on the front-end to victory.
The Bet: Race 8: $50 across the board on #10-ZIYAD
Results: Red Knight was much the best today and looked fantastic in the paddock. This is why it's tough to handicap a day in advance. Ziyad finished 3rd. Cashed for $85.
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Thursday, October 15, 2020 Race 5: This 6-1/2 furlong sprint for maidens contains a contentious field of eight. Seven of these starters are 3-year-olds so I am eyeing the only 4-year-old in the field, Confess. Trained by Wayne Catalano, this Hard Spun colt hasn't been out since he debuted in July of 2019. Now a year and a half later, he's spotted here against younger. His training regimen looks like he's ready to roll today. Even though jockey Corey Lanerie has been chilly in his first two weeks of mounts, look for him to heat-up starting today. I like Confess at 10-1 morning-line odds.
The Bet: Race 5: $20 across the board on #3-CONFESS
Results: Barely took a step. Loss of $60.
Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Thursday, October 15, 2020 50-cent part-wheel: (Updated 12:45pm)
______________________________________________________ WEDNESDAY - OCTOBER 14, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Wednesday, October 14, 2020 Race 4: Trainer Arnaud Delacour starts Eres Tu off a year and a half layoff today. Eres Tu translates to "it's you" in Spanish and today it'll be you who misses out if you don't bet this 4-year-old daughter of Malibu Moon. This filly was well-meant as a 3-year-old running in the Rachel Alexandra and Fair Grounds Oaks finishing 3rd and 4th, respectively. She was transferred to Delacour from the Asmussen barn. Delacour has a first with trainer winning percentage of 33%. She's been working well in the mornings and I see her coming from off the pace to win this one easily today.
The Bet: Race 4: $50 across the board on #3-ERES TU
Results: Finally! Dry-spell over. Eres Tu wins at 6-1. Cashed for $575.
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Wednesday, October 14, 202 Race 6: Trainer Brendan Walsh has only visited the winner's circle once this meet. Here Comes Josie is making her first start today. This daughter of Flatter has been working extremely well in the mornings and gets jockey Corey Lanerie who heated-up this past weekend with seven in-the-money finishes. I love the 15-1 morning-line odds.
The Bet: Race 6: $20 across the board on #8-HERE COMES JOSIE
Results: Here Comes Josie never fired.
Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Wednesday, October 14, 2020 50-cent part-wheel: (Updated 12:50pm)
____________________________________________________ SUNDAY - OCTOBER 11, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Sunday, October 11, 2020 Race 3: With rain in the forecast for Sunday, this 1-1/16th route may be run on an off-track. Trainer Reeve McGaughey is the son of Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey. Having been on the sidelines for almost a year, McGaughey starts Haunt for Claiborne Farm. This 4-year-old son of Ghostzapper has been training well leading up to this 2020 debut. Formerly trained by Bill Mott, he will welcome the off-going today as he has run on it twice with a 1st and 2nd finish for his efforts. Look for him to surprise at projected overlay odds of around 8-1.
The Bet: Race 3: $50 across the board on #3-HAUNT
Results: Never advanced.
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Sunday, October 11, 2020 Race 6: This is a 1-1/16th route on the main as well. Trainer Carlo Vaccarezza has been running Offspring on the turf over the past year with successful results of 3 wins in those 9 starts. So why is he making the move to the dirt? Because he knows that this son of Into Mischief will most likely relish the surface. So what if it comes up muddy? No worries, this won is bred for the mud all day long. Look for 24% winning jockey Florent Geroux to take this one to the lead and never look back at 10-1 morning-line odds.
The Bet: Race 6: $20 across the board on #6-OFFSPRING
Results: Rand with the leaders, backed up. Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Sunday, October 11, 2020 50-cent part-wheel:
____________________________________________________ SATURDAY - OCTOBER 10, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Saturday, October 10, 2020 Race 4: With a bit of rain in today's forecast, this 7-furlong sprint on the main track may come up a bit muddy. Trainer Robertino Diodoro may be relatively unknown in Central Kentucky, but he is a well-respected successful conditioner at the NYRA tracks. Blacktop Legend was transferred to the Diodoro barn back in June and by all accounts, he has been training well leading up to his first start in 4 months. With some class relief today, Blacktop Legend will relax close to the lead and will beat this suspect field of claimers. Diodoro has some strong stats including 27% first out with trainer, 25% off the layoff, and 43% when paired-up with jockey Adam Beschizza. He'll be an overlay which only adds to the appeal.
The Bet: Race 4: $50 across the board on #9-BLACKTOP LEGEND
Results: Tracked the pace early, then went three wide only to toil in the stretch.
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Saturday, October 10, 2020 Race 8: Today's first Stakes race is the G2-Fayette going 1-1/8th miles on the main track. Again, we could see some weather affect the racing surface today with rain in the forecast. I have zeroed-in on the Steve Asmussen-trained Aurelius Maximus who won first off the layoff last out at Churchill in September. The race-pattern of this colt is typical Asmussen. Target a particular stakes race; let the horse take a vacation; prep the horse in an Optional Claimer; then unleash his horse and win that stakes race. Note that sons of Pioneerof the Nile excel on an off-track and that Aurelius Maximus won by 7 lengths the last time he ran on the slop. I love him at 10-1 morning-line odds.
The Bet: Race 8: $20 across the board on #10-AURELIUS MAXIMUS
Results: Aurelius Maximus menaced, then ranged up outside of Mr. Freese only to lose by a long neck. Cashed for $200.
Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Saturday, October 10, 2020 50-cent part-wheel:
_______________________________________________ FRIDAY - OCTOBER 9, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Friday, October 9, 2020 Race 6: This turf route goes 1-1/16th miles and kicks off the late PK5. Trainer Chad Brown's invasion of Keeneland has been steady with 15 starters so far this meet but only has 3 wins so far. That figure stands to increase this afternoon beginning here with Trade Deadline. This son of Kitten's Joy has been away from the track for over 18 months but Chad is showing his confident hand by bringing him back in a turf route against a very solid field of nine. He retains the services of Javier Castellano where the jockey/trainer combo wins at 56% at Keeneland. Not too shabby to say the least.
The Bet: Race 6: $50 across the board on #6-TRADE DEADLINE
Results: Broke towards the rear, ran 5th.
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Friday, October 9, 2020 Race 8: Most will likely say I'm reaching with this 20-1 shot in this 7-furlong sprint on main track. Visitant (which means a supernatural being or apparition) has been off for a little more than a year. The connection of this 4-year-old son of Ghostzapper had high aspirations after he began his career with two straight wins Golden Gate Fields. He ran a game second in the California Derby then won the Alcatraz Stakes three weeks later. He then traveled down state to Santa Anita and ran third behind Mucho Gusto and Roadster in the Affirmed Stakes. His last was a grass try in the Del Mar Derby where he was only beaten 4 lengths. Trainer Bill Morey has been giving him long 5 and 6 furlong gallops to get him ready for this one. Look for him to be sent to the lead by jockey Declan Cannon to try to steal the race on the front-end.
The Bet: Race 8: $20 across the board on #11-VISITANT
Results: Off slow, failed to factor.
Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Friday, October 9, 2020 50-cent part-wheel: (Updated 12:30pm)
___________________________________________________ THURSDAY - OCTOBER 8, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Thursday, October 8, 2020 Race 6: This one goes 7-furlongs on the main track for Maidens. Trainer Ben Colebrook starts Soviet who last ran a good 4th at Kentucky Downs a month ago where all three that finished ahead of him came back to win next out. After debuting a Saratoga for two starts in 2019, Soviet was put on the shelf for a year before running 3rd at an off-th-turf event at Ellis Park. Then he ran his aforementioned 4th at KD on the lawn. Now he's back to the dirt where he'll flourish today under jockey Tyler Gaffalione.
The Bet: Race 6: $50 across the board on #6-SOVIET
Results: Soviet ran so-so finishing third. Cashed for $70. Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Thursday, October 8, 2020 Race 8: This Maiden Special goes 1-1/16th miles on the dirt. Trainer Brian Lynch has seen his filly Sovereign Appeal run two straight well-beaten head-scratchers going off at low odds of 7-2 and 5-1. This field is extremely suspect and if Sovereign Appeal can run back to her June 27th race at Churchill, she wins against these slugs. Lynch adds blinkers to get some speed into her for today's contest which should be exactly what she needs to focus on the finish line. I love her chances at 10-1 morning-line odds.
The Bet: Race 8: $20 across the board on #11-SOVEREIGN APPEAL
Results: A valiant effort by Sovereign Appeal but she couldn't get past Villanelle running second. Cashed for $196.
Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Thursday, October 8, 2020 50-cent part-wheel: (updated 12:50pm)
_____________________________________________________ WEDNESDAY - OCTOBER 7, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Wednesday, October 7, 2020 Race 4: Wednesday is apparently BINGO day because this one is as close to a Free Square as it gets. This 10K Starter Optional Claimer goes 1-1/16th miles on the main track. Trainer Bill Morey has a small barn but it's full of winners as he has a 25% of starters cross the finish line first. Crazy Sexy Munny is a 4-year-old filly that has won 11 of her 22 lifetime starts with her latest coming in similar conditions at Churchill winning by 4 lengths. Now she makes her very first start at Keeneland and jockey Tyler Gaffalione retains the mount coming off 4 wins over opening weekend. She'll be an underlay, so key her in the double with my Longshot Play in Race 5.
The Bet: Race 4: $20 Daily Double #1-CRAZY SEXY MUNNY with #11-MIDNIGHT JOSTAR $50 across the board on #1-CRAZY SEXY MUNNY
Results: Crazy Sexy Munny couldn't get by Matt's Honey losing by a head-bob at the wire proving there is no such thing as a Free Square in this business. Cashed for $115.
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Wednesday, October 7, 2020 Race 5: This 1-1/8th mile grass event is a contentious one for 3-year-olds. Trainer Eddie Kenneally is a top turf trainer but was 0-for-4 with his starters over opening weekend. That changes today with Midnight Jostar who has had four straight races with added adversity. I watched the replays of all four races and jockey Florent Geroux made some significant misjudgments with this colt as he was closing from deep stretch. Kenneally had enough with Geroux and switches to the aforementioned Tyler Gaffalione where the jockey/trainer combo wins at 22%. Look for better decision-making today as Midnight Jostar will be flying late at 12-1 morning-line odds.
The Bet: Race 5: $20 across the board on #11-MIDNIGHT JOSTAR
Results: Of course I get the worst ride from Gaffalione in the last 4 days. He didn't ask the horse until the top of the stretch. Simply horrible.
Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Wednesday, October 7, 2020 50-cent part-wheel:
____________________________________________________ SUNDAY - OCTOBER 4, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Sunday, October 4, 2020 Race 5: Trainer Stan Hough brings 2-year-old filly Inject over from Churchill for this 6-1/2 furlong contest on the main track. She debuted this past August with a romp at Ellis Park by over six lengths. In her second start, she stretched out to a mile in the G3-Pocahontas where she had an inside trip that came with a lot of bumping in an amongst the young field. Today will be her third start against a much weaker group and cutting back to a more favorable distance. Stan Hough has won 44% with his 2-year-olds this year, and new jockey Luis Saez has seen repeated visits to the winner's circle in the first two days here winning at 29%.
The Bet: Race 5: $50 across the board on #4-INJECT
Results: Inject jogged around the track with little interest finishing 4th.
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Sunday, October 4, 2020 Race 8: Today's longshot play comes in the G2-Bourbon Stakes that goes 1-1/16th on the grass. Trainer Wes Ward starts Blame the Booze who only two prior races were rained-off the turf. But the performances were still top notch and this gelding won at first asking and just got headed at the wire in his last. Today's race should stay on the turf and this son of Blame should relish the stretch-out. Plus, jockey Gerardo Corrales is aboard where the jockey/trainer combo wins at 37%.
The Bet: Race 8: $20 across the board on #7-BLAME THE BOOZE
Results: Blame the Booze went backwards after a good start. Loss of $60
Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Sunday, October 4, 2020 50-cent part-wheel:
__________________________________________________ SATURDAY - OCTOBER 3, 2020 - FALL MEET
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Saturday, October 3, 2020 Race 8: The G1-First Lady is for fillies and mares 3-years-old and up. This contest has a major conflict of interest between Mr. B & Mr. K, whereby Mr. B's Longshot Play is Dalika and I'm going with Daddy Is a Legend as my BEST BET. Daddy Is a Legend just recently made her 2020 debut in August running a dismal 9th in a Stakes at Ellis Park. Then trainer Rusty Arnold ran her in the Distaff Turf Mile at Churchill where she once again finished a disappointing 5th. The excuses for those performances are hard to uncover but I'm seeing her as not liking the soft turf at Ellis and not liking the rail post in her run at Churchill. This afternoon, she gets an optimal 3-post and a jockey change to James Graham. She has an affinity for this Keeneland grass as she is 2 for 4 here with her most recent win coming a year ago on this very turf course. Rusty wouldn't point her to this race unless she was ready. Look for a dynamic victory at juicy odds of 6-1.
The Bet: Race 8: $20 across the board on #3-Daddy Is a Legend
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Saturday, October 3, 2020 Race 10: The Shadwell Turf Mile is today's Feature race. Trainer Bill Mott ships Casa Creed down from Saratoga where he ran a good closing 3rd to Halladay in the 4 Star Dave Stakes posting a career-high Beyer of 100. Mott's horses regularly take big steps in consecutive races so another Beyer-top puts him right with the leading contenders here. He'll have to beat Chad Brown's Analyze It to bring home the dough, but I like his chances at 12-1 morning-line odds.
The Bet: Race 10: $20 across the board on #1-Casa Creed
Results: A valiant effort leads to a 4th place finish. Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Saturday, October 3, 2020 50-cent part-wheel:
Mr. K's Play of the Day for Friday, October 2, 2020 Race 3: Sunny skies are in the forecast for Opening Day of the Fall Meet. This 7-furlong sprint on the dirt looks like a good spot for Risky Mandate trained by FOKP (Friend of Keenelandpicks) Tom Amoss. This filly was a late starter when she won her first two starts back in June & July of 2019 by open lengths. She finished her 3-year-old campaign with 3rd place finish in the G2-Prioress before taking almost an 11-month hiatus and running 2nd in her debut as a 4-year-old. Amoss thought she was sharp enough to run her in the G1-LaTroien last out only to see her finish last of eight. Today she cuts back in distance and is facing much weaker company. A jockey switch from Cohen to Saez only adds to the appeal.
THE BET: Race 3: $50 across the board on #1-Risky Mandate
Results: WINNER! Risky Mandate took the lead out of the gate and never looked back. Cashed for $182.50
Mr. K's Longshot of the Day for Friday, October 2, 2020 Race 8: The G2-Phoenix goes 6-furlongs on the main track. Trainer Brendan Walsh ships Midnight Sands down the road from Churchill where this son of Speightstown got worn down in the final strides only to run third as the post-time favorite. That was his first start in the States after running 9 times across the pond in Great Britain and the United Arab Emirates. I'm going with the "second start off the sand" angle and expect a huge effort cutting back a panel under the guidance of new rider Joel Rosario at 12-1 morning-line odds.
THE BET: Race 8: $20 across the board on #12-Midnight Sands
Results: Ran mid-pack the whole way. Loss of $60
Mr. K's Pick 5's and Pick 4's for Friday, October 2, 2020 50-cent part-wheel: