2021 Fall Meet Totals Wagered: $3,730.50 Cashed: $2,232.75 Net Profit: -$1,497.75 ROI: -40%
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,3,5 with 6 with 2,4,5,6 with 3 with 4,5,7,10,12 ($30)
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 4,7 with 6 with 4,7,9,11 with 3,7 with 4,10 ($16)
Race 7 $200 to Win on #6 PIPELINE (4-1 ML) $20 Double 6 with 7,11 ($40) The step up from MSW win to stake race isn't as big as many think, especially when a horse runs as fast as this colt did in those two races at Saratoga. This late maturing horse is being brought along beautifully by the best trainer in the game and this should be an easy spot for him at a square price that you rarely get.
Race 9 $50 to Win on #7 CILLA (8-1 ML) $10 Exacta 7 over 3,9 ($20) It isn't often that you see a horse win a Grade 2 race and then come right back to the same level at odds of 8-1, so maybe this price won't hold, especially considering that Gaffalione stays aboard. This looks like a horse that turned it up a gear after that puzzling clunker at Keeneland last meet and a 4th straight win is very possible.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,3,6,8 with 2,3,5,6,9 with 3,5,6 with 7 with 1 ($30) Lost The Conso Kings are getting closer to that big meet-making score. Is today the day?
Race 5 $100 to Win on #1 COUSTEAU (9-5 ML) Lost, 4th This slow-to-develop colt has been the beaten favorite in both career starts and will likely be bet to favoritism again today. It is encouraging to see a return here for a 2nd start off of the long layoff and the workouts have been sharp. Further encouragement comes from the assignment of the meet-leading jockey again. All systems go.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 8,10,11 with 1,7,10 with 1,4,7,11,12 with 5 with 1,2,5,6,8,11 ($135) CASHED FOR $10.25 Adjusted post-scratches
Race 8 $50 to Win on #7 SOLE VOLANTE (20-1 ML) Lost, 6th $1 Trifecta Key Box 7 with 1,4,11,12 ($36) $10 Double 7-5 Lost A Grade 3 turf race is not usually where you find a 4 year old who raced a year ago in two legs of the Triple Crown: the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes. This horse is just trying to find where he belongs as an older horse now -- he hasn't won a race since June 2020 even though he won 4 of his first 6 races. And his last race was his fastest race since that last win and was on the turf. So I think this is a good move to stay on the grass and to tackle a distance that should favor his classy pedigree. Geroux stays on and expects improvement too.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 4 with 1,2,7,10 with 3,4 with 3,4,5,7,8 with 4 ($20) CASHED FOR $33.95 Going lightly here with some key favorites
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 4 with 2,7,8 with 5 with 5,7,9 with 1,4,5,7,8,9,11 ($31.50)
$100 to Win on #4 MARION FRANCIS CASHED FOR $220.00 $20 Exacta 4-6 Lost $20 Double 4 with 7,8 ($40) Lost
The blessing and the curse of the 9 race card is that for Pick 5 players, you get the 5th race as the last leg of the early Pick 5 and the first leg of the late Pick 5. Fortunately, my Best Bet of the Day is in this race, so really can anchor my opinion on the Brad Cox horse. Some mild class relief here should make it more likely that the horse closes better.
Race 9 $50 to Win on #4 SURF SPA (10-1 ML) CASHED FOR $315.00 $1 Trifecta Key Box 4 with 5,8,9,11 ($36) Lost After a troubled trip last time in the debut race, I like that this one comes back quickly again this month and gets blinkers on. Good early speed is a very positive sign in a debuting runner, and that should be repeated today.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2,3,10,12 with 1,2,4 with 2,5,6,8,9,10 with 3,4,7,11 with 2 ($144) Lost Races 1 and 3 are cheap maiden claiming races and good places to go wide.
Race 3 $20 to Win on #5 WHISKEY GENT (12-1 ML) Lost, 3rd $1 Trifecta Key Box 5 with 2,8,9,10 ($36) Lost This colt has stopped badly in his first two races, but those were MSW races at Saratoga, which is like the SEC of horse racing for 2 year olds. Today's race is like American Athletic Conference, and this horse is UK. Go Cats!
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 3,4,7,11 with 2,6,9,10 with 4 with 1,2 with 1 ($16) Lost Small ticket with some likely short-priced winners
Race 7 $50 to Win on #2 MOVIE MOXY (8-5 ML) Lost, 4th $20 Double 2-1 Lost Last time out the filly was out of the money (4th) for the first time in her 11 race career. I don't expect her to get caught in a speed duel again, and she should be more of a presser here. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione is running away with this meet -- 15 wins in 52 starts (29%) more than double the #2 jock, Geroux.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2,4 with 1,2,4,8 with 5 with 5,6,7,8,9,10 with 2,8,9 ($72) CASHED FOR $360.50 The single in the 3rd leg is a Chad Brown 2 yo filly in a MSW, making her 2nd start. She actually crossed the finish line first in that debut race, but was DQ'd and placed 3rd. Expect her to run more straight today under Gaffalione and break her maiden officially.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 8 with 1,6,9,11 with 1,2,3,5,7 with 2,5,6,7,10 with 4,7,10 ($150) Lost
$100 to Win on #8 BEVERLY PARK (3-1 ML) CASHED FOR $330.00 $10 Exacta 8 over 2,9 ($20) Lost Starting off the late pick 5 here with a Best Bet horse that many will discredit because he is a Thistledown shipper, but those 6 wins in 12 starts are no fluke -- this horse likes to win. If things go his way, he will break well to take the early lead and never look back. He has won at Keeneland once before, and this trainer/jockey combo win at over a 40% clip. In fact, McKee might be the best jockey in this race!
Race 8 $20 to Win on #5 LADY EDITH (12-1 ML) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 5 with 1,2,3,7 ($36) Lost Turf sprints seem to be a race everybody likes to watch, but nobody likes to handicap. I like to find the horses that run their best races on the turf sprints. This filly's fastest races fit the profile on the turf at Churchill Downs this summer. Trainer Tom Drury's horses run better off of a brief layoff like here, and Talamo should get a nice stalking trip.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 3,6,7 with 2,3,9,10,11 with 1,3,12,15 with 4 with 1,3,4,7,8 ($150) Lost
Race 4 $100 to Win on #4 AFLEET DIVA (2-1 ML) CASHED FOR $240.00 $20 Double 4-7 Lost This 3 year old filly has been off for over a year and drop in class, so obviously there is some mystery with how sharp this horse is. I take a lot of confidence in the fact that she has been in the barn of Wesley Ward who has a knack for getting young horses to fire. The morning workouts haven't been great, but more importantly, they have been consistent and the best effort is likely today at a square favorite's price.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 9,11 with 1,2,5 with 4 with 1,4,5 with 4,7 ($18) Lost
Race 10 $20 to Win on #7 LEMOS CUNHA (12-1 ML) Lost, 6th $1 Trifecta Key Box 7 with 1,2,4,6 ($36) Lost Turf sprints are usually won by the horse that specialize in those races, and this filly is just a River Downs horse on dirt, but a Keeneland horse in these turf sprints. A repeat of that last effort would be competitive enough to win this allowance race.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 6 with 1,2,4,5 with 6 with 2,4,5,7 with 2,4,7 ($24) CASHED FOR $5.35 Keeneland's small field problem continues to plague the early part of the cards. What used to be a Wednesday problem is creeping into the weekend cards. Still can make money, just have to be more targeted.
Race 3 $100 to Win on #6 WAXMAN (7-5 ML) Lost, 2nd $20 Double 6-4 Lost So here is how the debut race went...think he stands to improve in his 2nd start? "WAXMAN two to three wide in pursuit just off the pace, came under coaxing at the five-sixteenths, had the rider lose the handle on his crop nearing the quarter pole to the right side, swung five wide for home reaching for a pair of goggles for encouragement and lost the majority of them save one pair now entwined in his cap cover when pulling them from their perch on his helmet, flagged the goggles righthanded to his charge for encouragement losing the cap cover with three-sixteenths to go and fought on head to head with CODY'S WISH leaving a debris field behind and ultimately prevailed in that battle for the place honors while unable to threaten the top one through the final furlong"
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 1,2,5,6 with 1,3,10 with 5 with 1,5,6,7,10 with 2,3,7,8,9 ($150) Lost Jon Court on the steam horse yesterday pull out the rug on yesterday's late Pick 5, but back at it again. The single is the only ML favorite on this ticket.
Race 7 $20 to Win on #1 WINTER SUNSET (20-1 ML) Lost, 9th $1 Trifecta Key Box 1 with 3,5,10,11 ($36) Lost Bomb alert! Mr B and Mr K both have this one on top. With our far reaching influence, it might get bet down to 19-1. She has been off since May, but has the back class and a recent sharp work to be considered a contender here. Catalano can pop a big one from time to time and actually has a positive ROI with older horses. And Geroux is a good turf rider who should be able to hustle this one out of the gate and up the rail into the clear.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 3 with 5 with 2,3,4 with 7 with 2,3,5,6 ($6) Lost
Race 2 $50 to Win on #5 WATERS OF MEROM (3-1 ML) CASHED FOR $100.00 This filly's 3rd career start will include a return to Lasix as she stretches out to two turns. The running style and breeding here seem well suited for the route distance.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 2,4,7,9,10 with 1,2,3,4,7,12 with 6 with 5,7,11 with 4,10 ($90) CASHED FOR $36.10
Race 9 $20 to Win on #11 HIGHESTDISTINCTION (12-1 ML) Lost, Last $1 Trifecta Key Box 11 with 5,6,7,8 ($36) Lost This longshot has the look of a horse that could be in front early, given his pace rating edge over this big field. If Talamo sends him, I think this one can return to good form and pop a surprise.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 5 with 11 with 2 with 1,3,6,7,8 with 2,5 ($5) Lost With three of these legs having six-horse fields, you probably won't get a lot of betting value out of the early Pick 5. So I'll just play a small ticket here with a few singles and look to beat the favorites.
Race 3 $100 to Win on #2 FORT KNOX (5-2 ML) Lost, 2nd $10 Double 2-8 This colt has not been a finisher -- backing up down the stretch in his last several races. Today though brings some class relief with a drop to the $30k claiming level. And this is an ugly bunch with horses that just broke their maiden after trying for a long time and other horses that have run poorly in recent starts. This one has the best combination of class and speed.
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 1,3,6,7,8 with 2,5 with 2,5,6,10 with 4 with 4,12 ($40) Lost If you haven't tried out our Pick 5 Builder tool, give it a try! You can lay out your ticket and estimate what you think the track odds will be and then assign your own fair value odds to calculate your probability of winning. Based on those probabilities, you will get an idea of your chances of winning (spoiler alert-- it is probably far less than 10% if you're doing it right). And then the good news -- when you do win, you can see the probability-weighted estimate of what you will get paid. Hopefully something at least 20-1, but probably more like 50-1 or even 100-1! I'll tweet an example of this using this ticket on Twitter @keenelandpicks
$20 to Win on #8 PETER'S KITTEN (10-1 ML) Lost, 6th $10 Double 8-1 The 1 1/2 mile turf race is one that isn't carded too often, and this Kitten's Joy mare hasn't stretched out this far in here career even though she seems best bred for it among today's field. The effort last out at Kentucky Downs was poor, but she raced wide and it is a course that seems to build stamina. Gaffalione takes the mount this time and looks to get a stalking trip behind what should be a fast pace.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,2,3,4 with 1,3,8,12 with 6 with 1,3,7 with 3,4,5 ($72) Lost
Race 3 $200 to Win on #6 R WORKING GIRL (2-1 ML) Lost, ran last $20 Double 6-3 Lost This horse has taken the summer off and drop in for a claim this time, so that may raise some doubts for some, but Ward horses usually run sharp off of a layoff (33% win rate and positive ROI) and I think Gaffalione is a positive. Expect to see a class advantage show today.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 8,10,11 with 5,6,7,8 with 2,7,8 with 4 with 1,4,10,12 ($72) CASHED FOR $15.60
$20 to Win on #11 SILKY WARRIOR (12-1 ML) Lost, 7th $1 Trifecta Key Box 11 with 1,3,8,10 ($36) Lost $10 Double 10,11 with 5,7 ($40) Lost I like the turf pedigree here and expect that the maiden win last time out to be indicative of a developing horse that is ready for the jump and win off of the maiden win. Trainer Hiles is doing well with this filly he snatched from Casse.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2,6,8,10 with 1,3,4,7,10 with 4,5,6,8 with 1 with 1,3,5,6,7,8 ($240) Lost
Race 4 $50 to Win on #1 BALADI (5-2 ML) Lost, 4th $20 Double 1-1 Lost The debut win on the dirt at Ellis was impressive, and after an OK race on the artificial surface in Chicago, the beaten favorite should be sharper today back on dirt. The extra distance should be no issue.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 2,4,6 with 1,4 with 6,9,13 with 5 with 6,10,13 ($27) Lost
Race 8 $20 to Win on #9 BLOWOUT (8-1 ML) CASHED FOR $126.00 $10 Double 9-5 Lost One of the three Chad Brown runners in here in what is a pretty competitive race. This mare is usually a tough customer on the front end, and even though she runs 2nd a lot and doesn't blow horses away, you'll get a square price for a horse that should be in the photo.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2 with 1,2,3,5 with 1 with 2,4,5,9 with 1,4,5,7,8 ($40) Lost I'm really committed to putting up some smaller tickets for you this meet, which not only makes them more affordable, but also likely more profitable in the long run. I will certainly hit fewer tickets, especially considering that I plan to toss a lot of favorites. I doubt I will hit even 10% of them fully (remember 4 of 5 pays something, so don't throw that ticket on the ground), but a couple of mid four figure ones would turn a profit for the meet. This one here is not a high probability bet -- I'm tossing four of the five ML favorites in this sequence. Part of that comes from just looking for longer shots, but I must admit that I think the morning line maker is off. For example in leg 1, I think #2 will be the post time favorite, but she is listed as 2nd choice on the ML. I am singling her and the "2nd choice" in the 3rd leg.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 5,8,11,12 with 1,5,11 with 6 with 3,4,7,8,10 with 2,5,8 ($90) Lost This is the more interesting Pick 5 and I am going to single the Best Bet pick of both Mr K and Mr B in the 8th race and go deeper in the other legs. Again, I'm tossing the ML favorite in the other four legs. I hope those lines are correct, because I don't think their chances are as good as the ML odds would suggest. These opinions can be tested in the Pick 5 Builder tab, a new tool we are offering to help you build your own tickets. Check it out and let us know if you find it useful.
Race 7 $20 to Win on #11 AMERICANUS (15-1 ML) Lost, ran last $1 Trifecta Key Box 11 with 1,3,4,5,7 ($60) Lost $10 Double 5,11 with 6 ($20) Lost As a 3 year old, this colt collected checks last year along the East Coast, but then took a long layoff and switched to Steve Asmussen's barn. The all-time winningest trainer tried him on the turf for the first time at Kentucky Downs off of the long layoff, and the horse raced what was probably his fastest race in his young 8 race career, winning a tough contest. The stretchout in distance has been a problem before, which likely explains the long odds, but I see the new turf surface as a positive and the horse should be fresh in the second start off of the layoff. Any improvement off of the last start gives him a big chance.
Race 8 $200 to Win on #6 SPECIAL RESERVE (9-5 ML) CASHED FOR $440.00 $50 Double 6-7 Lost This Grade 2 races has what looks like a predictable group of horses, and this Mike Maker-trained colt has shown the highest speed figures in his prior races, including a close 2nd place finish in a Grade 1 at Saratoga last out. The is stepping stone race to the Breeders Cup, and Special Reserve will likely punch his ticket today as favorite under Joel Rosario.