JULY 12

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
1,2,3,4,7,10 with 1,5,7 with 4 with 3,4,6,7 with 1,3,4,6,8   ($180)

Race 3
$100 to Win on #4 DIGITAL SOFTWARE (9-5 ML)
$20 Double 4 with 3,4  ($40)
$10 Exacta Box 2-4-6  ($60)
The second-time starter ran an encouraging 2nd in his debut race at Churchill in June and returns for another turf try today at a similar level. Although the field here is competitive again, this one is probably best bred for the 1 3/16 distance on the turf being a Temple City colt out of a Dansili mare. Any I would be fully confident that Chad Brown has him ready for the extra distance. Fair odds are probably 3-5, so anything better than that would be value here.

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
1,3,4,6,8 with 2,6,7 with 1,3 with 2,6,9 with 1,5,10,13   ($180)

Race 8
$20 to WPS on #6 COPPER TOWN (10-1 ML)
$10 Exacta Box 2-6-9  ($60)
$20 Double 2,6 with 5,13  ($80)
$1 Trifecta Key Box 6 with 1,2,9,13  ($36)
Pivoting to this Wesley Ward longshot because my other Wesley Ward longshot in 9th race scratched. This is the second time out for Copper Town after a layoff since Feb 2019 and since switching to Ward's barn from Pletcher. The turf sprint try last out was a flop but he is back on the dirt sprinting today, which was where he won his first non-maiden race here at Keeneland way back in the 2018 fall meet. 

​

JULY 11

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5 
2,4,7,8 with 4,5,6,9,10 with 1,2,3,5,6 with 4 with 3,5,7,9   ($200)     CASHED FOR $10.20

Race 4
$100 to Win on #4 ALMS (6-5 ML)   Lost, 3rd
$10 Exacta Box 2-4-5  ($60)   Lost
$20 Double 4 with 5,7  ($40)   Lost
The best of the bluebloods are here to run today and this Godolphin filly looks to start a new winning streak here in the Appalachian Stakes. She was a disappointing 5th last out at Churchill as the favorite, which was her first defeat of her career, but she had traffic troubles. Stidham has her training well and  she is a single you can use with confidence today.

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
3,5,7,9 with 2,8,13 with 2,3,4,6 with 2,4 with 3,4,5,7,13   ($240)     CASHED FOR $440.15

Race 8
$50 to WP on #2 JULIET FOXTROT   (8-1 ML)   Lost, 3rd
$20 Double 2,4 with 3,13   ($80)     CASHED FOR $128.00
$10 Exacta Box 2-4-7  ($60)   Lost
Rushing Fall is the big name in here with a whole resume of Grade 1 wins, but Juliet Foxtrot is the better value. She had a disappointing effort at Churchill, but looks to have some stalking ability which might help her in today's pace scenario. Still uncertain who will be the jockey with the assigned Luis Saez testing positive for COVID19 yesterday.

JULY 10

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
6,2,3,7,4,1 with 5,2 with 7,6,1,2,8,3,4 with 3 with 4,7,2,5   ($168)   Lost
$10 Double 2,6 with 2,5   ($40)   Lost

Race 2
$20 to WPS on #5 U S S LEXINGTON (20-1 ML)   Lost, 4th
$10 Double 2,5 with 6,7   ($40)   Lost
$1 Trifecta Key Box 5 with 1,2,3  ($18)   Lost
​$5 Exacta Box 2-5  ($10)   Lost
The potential for this filly is hidden in the past performance lines, and I'm encouraged that the troubled trips that plagued her races are getting corrected. Last race out was her cleanest race yet and showed some decent early speed against older fillies for the first time. She posted a solid workout last week and probably will be better prepped in her second start off of a layoff.  She was bet well in her first start last fall at Churchill (5-1) and I think the horse is very well bred for a stretchout to 1 3/16 on the turf here (War Front filly by a Galileo mare). 

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
4,7,2,5 with 8,7,4,3,5,1 with 3,1 with 4,9,8,3 with 12,6   ($192)   Lost

Race 8
$20 Double 4,9 with 12 ($40)   Lost

Race 9
$50 to WP on #12 ON YOUR MARK (15-1 ML)     CASHED FOR $270.00
$10 Exacta Box 6-10-12   ($60)   Lost
$ Trifecta Key Box 12 with 4,5,6,10,11  ($60)   Lost
Forget the get set, just go to the windows (well at least your online account). I don't make the Best Bet such a longshot that often, but this horse is burning up the track in the mornings at Churchill since being gelded. Ignore his debut race as a colt down at Fair Grounds back in February -- today is his real debut. I'm surprised he is in for the claim today after the MSW debut, but I think the trainer typically drops horses when they are training well and the owners want a win. Trainer Greg Foley sports a 32% winning percentage on class drops, which is double his usual win rate. And he has paired up with Jimmy Graham to win 4 of their last 8 races together. 

​

JULY 9

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
9,5 with 4,9,7,11,3 with 6,2 with 1,7,8 with 10,4,3,11   ($120)    Lost

Race 2
$20 to WPS on #4 PRETTY XTREME (15-1 ML)     Lost, 7th
$10 Double 4,9 with 6   ($20)     Lost
$1 Trifecta Key Box 4 with 3,7,9,11   ($36)     Lost
I would throw out the last two races at Oaklawn Park, which is a track surface that some horses  just don't like. Prior to that, the horse had good early form including a 2nd place finish here at Keeneland back in the fall meet. I expect Canterbury-based trainer McLean Robertson to have this one ready to fire off of the two month layoff based on a series of good workouts. The drop in class from MSW to Maiden Claiming certainly will make for easier competition and there should be plenty of pace in this race to set things up for her closing move under David Cohen.

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
4,3,11 with 1,2,7,10,11,8 with 11 with 8,9,6 with 9,10,11,1   ($108)

Race 6
$20 Double 1,2 with 11,12   ($80)     Lost

Race 7
$50 to WP on #11 MORAL REASONING (5-2 ML)     Lost, 7th
$10 Exacta Box 9-11-12   ($60)   Lost
$20 Double 11,12 with 8,9  ($80)   Lost
Easy enough to back a Chad Brown turf horse as the Best Bet of the Day, but it is nice to have one on this tough card. This filly found stakes company a little too difficult her last two outings, but she drops in class to an easier allowance condition today.  Sure, it's against older fillies for the first time, but she has been working very consistently in the mornings and I expect her to be well conditioned and ready to deliver a big rally in the stretch today against these non-winners of two lifetime.

JULY 8

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
ALL with 1,2 with 6,8,5 with 5,12 with 4,7   ($108)     4 out of 5 CASHED FOR $43.60

Race 4
$50 to Win & Place on #2 IT'S MINE (5-1 ML)     SCRATCHED
$10 Exacta Box 5-12   ($20)    Lost

A couple of decent tries already in MSW races for this Asmussen-trained filly positions her well for a stretchout to two turns on the turf. Love the distance and surface switch here for a filly that has decent all around pedigree. I expect the jockey, Ricardo Santana, to use the inside post position to rush to the early lead. He should have enough in the tank to hold on late.


Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
4,7,3 with 5,3,2,10 with 8,7,1 with 2,5 with 3,10,14,5   ($144)     CASHED FOR $660.30

Race 6
$20 WPS on # 5 SCABBARD (15-1 ML)    Lost, last
$1 Trifecta Key Box 5 with 2,3,6,9,10   ($60)     Lost
$10 Double 3,5 with 7,8   ($40)     Lost
This 3yo gelding still qualifies for NW1 conditions, but it is important to respect that as a 2yo he ran 2nd in graded stake races at Saratoga and Churchill Downs and took that path to a 4th place finish in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. He really hasn't regained that form as a 3yo yet, but is trying turf for the second time today,  and he appeared to be more interested in running on it last time out making a stretch bid before flattening out.  He might improve in his second start here on turf and second race off of a layoff. If that 2yo talent flashes, the back class of this horse will be more than enough.

---