2022 Spring Meet Totals Wagered: $11,863.50 Cashed: $5,445.15 Net Profit: -$6,418.35 ROI: -54%
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1 with 1,3,7,8,11,12 with 1,2,5,6,7,11 with 4,7,11,12 with 1,3,4 ($216)
Race 4 $100 to Win on #7 TANGLED EMOTIONS (8-1 ML) The turf sprint debut was a good showing considering the rail draw and now we see a stretchout to two turns against a similar bunch. Expect a forwardly placed effort and a good shot at long odds in a wide open race.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 6 with 8 with 3,7 with 5,7 with 1,3,6,7,8,10 ($12)
Race 7 $200 to Win on #8 CYNWYD (2-1 ML) The first-time gelding is the closest one in the field to not qualifying for the conditions as he just got nosed out in his debut at Turfway last month. Showed the typical early speed of most Wesley Ward maidens and should have the early foot to clear the field here. Confident that Keeneland's dirt track will be more favorable to his speed and Velazquez knows how to rate that speed.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 6 with 1,2,4,9,10,11,12 with 3,4,6 with 1,3,5,7 with 3,4,7,8,9 ($210) CASHED FOR $16.95 4,5 with 1,2,4,9,10,12 with 3,4,6 with 5 with 3,4,7,9 ($72) Lost
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 3,4,7,8,9 with 12 with 1,4,5,11 with 1,3 with 4,5,7,10,12 ($100) CASHED FOR $16.30
$200 to Win on #7 JURA (5-1 ML) Lost, 8th This horse is quick and I expect that to show even off of the layoff. The switch to Geroux is favorable on this turf sprint and these odds would make him an overlay.
Race 7 $100 to Win on #4 TWO SOCKS (12-1 ML) Lost, 8th It's hard to know for sure what we will get here with the second lifetime start and first start in the U.S., but trainer Graham Motion is a solid 24% with second timers and knows where to place them.
Race 8 $200 to Win on #5 SKINNY DIP (4-1 ML) SCRATCHED The mare gets back to the dirt sprints today, which is where she puts up her best speed figures. Ortiz picks up the mount.
$200 to Win on RED GHOST (5-2 ML) SCRATCHED I think the scratch of the #5 horse makes this Ward horse the deserving favorite and highly likely winner.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2,3,4,5 with 6 with 2 with 1,4,5,7,9,11,12 with 1,2,8,9 ($56) Lost
Race 2 $200 to Win on #6 BELLA CONCHITA (9-5 ML) Lost, Last This 12 furlong turf race is a stamina test and none of these have yet proven they can get the passing grade. I think this Turfway shipper though has shown the finishing kick to pass the tiring front runners. None of the others seem likely to race comfortably on the front end at a sustainable pace, so I think the win will go to the horse that has the most in the tank late. The public will probably make the Chad Brown horse the favorite, so there is some value here I think.
Race 3 $200 to Win on #5 HEMP HEAVEN (6-1 ML) Lost, 4th Today is not a great card and there is no horse I can really trust. So taking a price here for a horse that won at Keeneland last spring and should be forwardly placed in a small field.
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 1,4,5,7,9,11,12 with 1,2,8,9 with 1,3,5,10,11 with 1,2,4,5 with 4 ($280) Lost
Race 6 $100 to Win on #3 ABSAM (15-1 ML) Lost, 8th Getting Maker and Ortiz at 15-1 odds is pretty appetizing. The horse usually shows good closing ability but usually doesn't get the cleanest trips. If that were to happen today, he has the speed and stamina to get to the wire first.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2,3,5,6,7 with 1,2,4,5,8,9 with 1,3,4,8 with 4 with 5,6,7 ($180) Lost
Race 3 $100 to Win on #1 COMMON BOND (15-1 ML) Lost, 7th A change in running style in the last two starts with Eric Reed better matches this 1 1/2 mile turf route. Formerly a speed horse, it now appears that laying back up at Turfway is allowing some nice closing kick to show with this gelding. That Tapeta form should translate well to turf here and we just need somebody to keep the #8 horse at an honest pace for the setup.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 5,6,7 with 7 with 6,7,8,11,12 with 1,3,4,7,11 with 2,4,9,10 ($150) CASHED FOR $49.30
Race 6 $200 to Win on #7 FABRICATE (2-1 ML) Lost, 2nd Off the claim and off the layoff are successful angles for trainer Joe DeAngelo. Main risk is a loose on the lead #2 horse. APRIL 23
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,2,5,6 with 1,4,5,7,8,10 with 1,2,6,8 with 2,5,6 with 5 ($144) CASHED FOR $37.80
Race 4 $100 to Win on #2 BAYOU WIND (8-1 ML) Lost, 7th Blinkers off might be a winning move here on the barn switch. The filly should flash better speed and stay on better as the race progresses. Looks ready to run fresh off of the layoff -- good workout pattern.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 3 with 1,2,3,4,5,6,9 with 5 with 1,3,9 with 1,2,3,9 ($42) Lost Going skinnier here and against some spot play favorites. Too difficult to play bigger ticket without just dumping in a bunch of favorites.
$100 to Win on #1 CASA DE GOAT (5-2 ML) CASHED FOR $190.00 This is more of a pick 5 ticket backup. I tend to want to toss a short-price first-time-starter. But Cox/Prat is a formidable pair.
Race 8 $500 to Win on #5 WARRANT (2-1 ML) Lost, 4th This is one of the higher confidence win bets so far this meet. Never out of the money in 9 starts and coming off of his fastest race ever.
Race 9 $200 to Win on #5 CHANNEL MAKER (2-1 ML) CASHED FOR $900.00 The scratches should give the old champ on easier time on the front end pace and I expect that class and superior breeding win at 12 furlongs on the turf
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2,3,5,8 with 1,2,3,8 with 1,2,5,6,9,10 with 5 with 8,9,10 ($144) CASHED FOR $62.70
Race 3 $200 to Win on #6 LOCO (10-1 ML) Lost, 8th This is really a trainer pattern play, because Tom Drury really excels with 3 year olds (28% win rate) and is particularly good when 2nd race off of the layoff (39%). The class drop to maiden claiming is also a plus.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 1,2,3 with 11 with 3,4,10 with 1,4 with 2,3,7,10,13 ($45) Lost
Race 8 $200 to Win on #10 RISK TAKING (9-2 ML) Lost, 6th The colt gets back to the turf after running along the Triple Crown trail last year. I love the surface and the distance for the Chad Brown/Flavian Prat duo who wins at a high rate. Take the odds if you can get them.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,2,5 with 5,6,8,9,10 with 3 with 6 with 1,2,4,8,9,10 ($45) Lost Thinking about tossing a lot of favorites here and going for a bigger score. More of a backup ticket in case some of my win bets below fail.
$200 to Win on #3 HIGHER AUTHORITY (3-1 ML) Lost, 2nd I just think people will be overly fading this morning line favorite and the price could be decent. I always give Reylu's mounts an extra look and I think he has a chance to be the controlling speed here in a pretty paceless race.
Race 2 $100 to Win on #7 DOMINICANA (7-2 ML) SCRATCHED The debut here on opening weekend was lackluster, but that experience should give her the edge over a field of first time starters. A beaten odds on favorite for Ward garners respect and I like that she did another gate work since the previous start.
Race 4 $200 to Win on #1 READY TO ANSWER (6-1 ML) Lost, 6th At last year's Spring Meet, this gelding was 2nd place as the favorite. He is still keeping the NW1x company, but no reason to not expect a return to returning well now that he's back turf sprinting.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 1,2,4,8,9,10 with 2,3,4,8 with 9 with 1,4,6,7 with 2,6,9,12 ($192) Lost
$200 to Win on #2 BITTER VIXEN (4-1 ML) Lost, 4th It seems likely that this sprinter stretching out for McPeek will show good early speed, which is being rewarded at Keeneland this meet. The connections seem willing to take the class drops needed to get to competitive levels and they have likely found it here at a $20k claimer.
Race 8 $200 to Win on #4 FLANIGAN'S COVE (4-1 ML) Lost, 2nd Things went awry for this filly after back-to-back wins in the fall, but I love the confidence of a 12 furlong race off of a long layoff and the McGaughey family has always targeted Keeneland as the spot where they bring their best. I expect a great start to her 4 year old season today.
Race 9 $100 to Win on #12 SHADY (8-1 ML) Lost, 7th First-time starters with the far outside post are usually underbet and maybe for good reason. But trainer Eddie Kenneally is hot this meet and the pedigree is good here.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2 with 4,5,6,7,9,10 with 2,3,6,7 with 3,4,6,7,8,9 with 2,3,8,9 ($288) Lost Singling a big class dropper for Maker in the 1st race. #2 Picasso is not the morning line favorite, but is likely to be the post time favorite. The horse has been an also ran for a couple of years now, and the owners have gone with Maker and Irad to get the job done today. There are a couple of also eligibles here to include if they get in.
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 4,6,7,8,9 with 2,3,8,9 with 1,3,5,7,9 with 1,3,4,8,13 with 5 ($250) Lost This one is probably trickier than the first pick 5 today. If I'm alive to the single in the last race, we should be looking at a big payday.
Race 7 $100 to Win on #8 INVADER (8-1 ML) Lost, Last This Wesley Ward horse is the likely pacesetter, and the long shot odds are probably a reflection that 1) the horse is coming in off of a layoff and making his first start of the year and only 3rd start in 12 months, and 2) he is more of a Kentucky circuit horse that winters at Turfway rather than shipping here from better tracks in Florida or Louisiana or California. The workout tab has been consistent and I expect Ward to have him ready and sharp. If the turf track is playing at least fair, I think he might go wire-to-wire.
Race 8 $200 to Win on #5 FULLY CONNECTED (5-1 ML) Lost, 2nd $20k maiden claimers is the bottom of the barrel for the Keeneland meet, and the big purses convince many owners to drop in class and risk losing a promising horse to a claim. There must be a lot of confidence in grabbing the purse with this one, because the connections just claimed him a month ago for $50k. Would they really be willing to take such a quick loss if they didn't think the purse money was theirs? This colt has never caught a fast dirt track for a sprint, and I expect that with getting that today, he will show early speed that carries.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 3,4 with 3,6,8,12 with 1,8,9 with 8 with 2,4,5,6,11 ($60) Lost
Race 5 $200 to Win on #5 PLAY ACTION PASS (8-1 ML) Lost, 3rd Corey Lanerie is no longer the meet leader kind of jockey, but he gets an interesting longshot here that is getting back to turf, which appears to be his better surface. He got third in a stakes race at Kentucky Downs last year and showed good early speed in a Grade 2 try here at Keeneland last meet. A sharp recent workout suggests he can handle the layoff and he gets Lasix for the first time.
Race 6 $200 to Win on #2 RATIONAL CHOICE (2-1 ML) CASHED FOR $460 Most Chad Brown runners break their maiden well before their 4 year old year, but patience will probably pay off with this well bred Candy Ride colt our of a Bernardini mare. Flavian Prat will sit just off of the pace and pounce on the tiring leaders down the stretch.
Race 7 $0.50 Pick 5 6 with 3,9,11,12,15 with 2,6,7,9,10 with 4 with 2,8 ($25) Lost
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 3,4,5,9 with 5,7,9,11,12 with 1,4,5,6,7 with 8 with 5,6 ($100) Lost
Race 2 $200 to Win on #7 MADELYN'S MAGIC (8-1 ML) Lost, Last Larry Jones keep a smaller barn these days and doesn't win a lot, but he's won 3 of his last 10 at Keeneland which isn't too bad. This horse rallies late, and I think the pace scenario sets things up for a winning surge at the wire. Oaklwan doesn't have a turf course, so I think the connections are happy to try that surface to break the maiden.
Race 4 $200 to Win on #8 FAN CLUB (2-1 ML) CASHED FOR $460.00 Like most Brad Cox runners, you get consistency and high speed figures with this runner. This is a fit horse and Geroux will have this horse in the race from the beginning.
Race 6 $200 to Win on #6 CONCERT TOUR (2-1 ML) Lost, 5th This was a hot Derby trail horse at one point last year in the Baffert barn, but didn't make the Derby and hasn't won since. This is now the third start under Brad Cox, and this is a high confident spot even though the Chad Brown runner will be tough.
$0.50 Pick 5 6 with 2,4,6 with 7,9,10,13 with 1,3,4,6 with 1,6,8,10,12 ($120) Lost
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,2,6 with 1,2,4,5,6,8 with 2,4,6 with 3 with 8 ($27) CASHED FOR $5.00
Race 5 $200 to Win on #8 RUNPAT (5-2 ML) CASHED FOR $520.00 The Chad Brown first time starter (#1) will probably be favored, but those kind of horses are overbet, and I doubt that any of them will match the early speed that this Brad Cox colt showed last out at Fair Grounds with a sub 22 opening quarter on the lead and only losing but 3/4 of a length. I like a maiden with some experience and this horse looks to be coming into this race sharp too.
$0.50 Pick 5 8 with 1,2,4,11,13 with 1,2,3,4,7 with 1,2,5,6,7 with 2 ($62.50) CASHED FOR $42.10
Race 6 $100 to Win on #4 STEPPER (15-1 ML) Lost, 5th The also-eligibles would be strong contenders in here, but for longshot players, the trainer here has great success with horses running 2nd off of a layoff, winning at a 41% clip for that angle. A "never factored" 7th place finish last out in a Turfway sprint should be tossed. It was just a warmup for a return to turf routes today. This filly broke her maiden in a turf mile and was well regarded enough to get bet to 6-1 at Kentucky Downs last year in a stakes race. 15-1 here seems enticing in comparison.
Race 7 $200 to Win on #2 WHATSTHECONNECTION (15-1 ML) Lost, Last The blinkers go on and Reylu already has a win this meet. Look for them to try to steal the race on the front end. Blue Kentucky will be coming, but if the track plays like it did Wednesday, a front runner can hang on.
Race 8 $200 to Win on #1 PRINCESS CAUSEWAY (7-2 ML) Lost, Last This mare wired the field at a similar level last Fall Meet here, and has not repeated that success since. But the Turfway Tapeta probably wasn't to her liking and she likely return to a sharper front running style again here on the turf.
Race 9 $200 to Win on #2 CAPE TRAFALGAR (5-2 ML) Lost, 3rd The colt ran a big speed figure in the debut, so there is a lot of upside for this one still. After all of Wednesday's longshot fireworks, I expect Thursday will close with an impressive, but chalky winner for Irad Ortiz.
Race 1 $100 to Win on #4 RYVIT (4-1 ML) Lost, 2nd With the other Ward horse scratching, the money will now pile onto his Alibi Ike, which makes this Asmussen horse a good value even though his first time starter win rate is lower than his normal rate.
$0.50 Pick 5 3,4,8 with 8 with 5,6,9 with 1,3,5,6 with 3,6,12 ($54) 3,4,8 with 1,4,5,8,10 with 6 with 1,3,5,6 with 3,6,12 ($90) I couldn't decide which horse to single here, so I suggest two tickets.
Race 2 $200 to Win on #8 NEPOTISM (7-5 ML) CASHED FOR $380.00 After 7 good tries against MSW competition, the connections make the move to drop in class down to the maiden claiming level and that should do the trick. The speed figure edge against the field has already been established, and this is a trainer that has won 5 of 6 times when dropping from MSW to MCL. His MCL win percentage is an incredible 53% for a 1.44 ROI.
Race 3 $200 to Win on #6 RUSSIAN ROULETTE (5-2 ML) Lost, 6th I know we are supposed to boycott anything Russian, but I like this Delta Downs shipper that is first race off of the claim. She has been a popular claim down in Louisiana and bounced around barns, but Broberg lost a good mare in a $15k claimer when trainer Matt Shirer swooped in to get her. And now Shirer brings her to Keeneland to race in a starter allowance race. where I figure she has the speed to wire the field.
Race 4 $100 to Win on #6 LITTLE BLAZE (8-1 ML) Lost, 2nd A 4yr old maiden is always a disappointment, and for this one, it is because she has only had two races - one in 2020 and one in 2021. So the inability to get to the track consistently is a big question mark and it is tough to know what you will get since she hasn't raced since the Churchill Downs meet. But for a longshot play, you have a high ROI trainer in Vaccarezza who wins around 20% and only selectively comes to Keeneland with horses. Worth a shot at these odds.
$0.50 Pick 5 1,3,5,6 with 3,6,12 with 1,4,6,8,9 with 3,5,6,8,9 with 4 ($150) Some times these 8-race Wednesday cards can be weak with short fields, but I'm pretty impressed with today's quality.
Race 5 $200 to Win on #3 UNPREDICTABLE BAY (5-1 ML) Lost, 8th There used to be a day at Keeneland where Julien Leparoux was every trainers top choice and he dominated Keeneland. He's now just average, but a jockey's impact is overrated and I just focus on the horse. This one was very active as a 2 year old with 7 starts, but it's 3 year old debut was a "no threat" trailing trip around the track in a Grade 3 race that proved to be over his head. A more realistic spot here with a NW1 allowance and a cutback to the sprint distance should give Leparoux an easy instruction -- break to the lead and don't look back.
Race 7 $200 to Win on #8 PIRATE'S PUNCH (5-1 ML) Lost, 6th Stacey likes pirates.
Race 8 $200 to Win on #4 DREAM MUSIC (3-1 ML) Lost, Last The scratches really clear the path for this Amoss horse to prove to be the standout. APRIL 10
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,2,5 with 1,4,6,7,8 with 8 with 1,6,7 with 6,7,10,11 ($90) CASHED FOR $121.20 Hitting the 4 of 5's as I've done won't pay the bills, but the field sizes and quality fields continue to make this a worthy gamble. It only takes one or two hits a meet to turn a profit. So maybe today is the day...
Race 3 $200 to Win on #12 FALCONET (7-2 ML) SCRATCHED This field features a lot of big money, well-bred maiden 3 year-olds, who just haven't gotten a win yet in the few starts they've had. The Pletcher horse here, an Uncle Mo filly, should rise above the crop and enjoy the stretchout off of a sharp debut 2nd place finish at Gulfstream last month. Distinctlypossible is just that, but the layoff and works suggests to wait on that one for next time perhaps.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 6,7,10,11 with 4,5,9,11,12 with 1,2,5,7 with 7 with 3,4,6,7,8,11 ($240) CASHED FOR $1,246.15 There are three turf races slotted for this sequence and I will spread somewhat there. The single is in the feature race, the Grade 3 Beaumont, and I like the favorite, #7 Matareya, for Brad Cox. The 3 year old debut at Fair Grounds was a career best, and expect her to carry her speed well again at this 7 furlong distance on the dirt.
Race 6 $100 to Win on #9 DEVINE CHARGER (10-1 ML) Lost, 7th This non-winner of one other than allowances are a perfect handicapping challenge. They bring the usual "why hasn't this horse won again?" question along with the shipper guesswork of a meet like Keeneland where they haven't faced each other before. This is probably one of the best horses in trainer Jordan Blair's barn, and she is here today with confident intention. Blair has a positive ROI, which indicates optimizing spots for the horses and underbetting from the public. Sounds like good betting advice. Expecting a sharp stalking trip.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 7,11,12 with 1,5,6,8,11,13 with 3,8,13 with 3,5,9,11,12 with 5 ($135) Lost NOW UPDATED FOR SCRATCHES. The best horses in some of these early races are probably the Also Eligibles, so the ticket needs to be built after scratches are out. But at least here are some of the ideas to consider early. #5 Nashville in the 5th, 2 for 2 impressively at Keeneland, is my single. The track favored speed on day 1 of the meet, but this horse is fast enough to not even need a bias. Should be an easy wire-to-wire winner.
Race 5 $200 to Win on #5 NASHVILLE (1-1 ML) Lost, Last Before you complain about chalky picks, I will point out that if I offered you a stock tip that promised to double within 2 minutes you might feel pretty excited about that. And I'm sure most of you would brag if your cryptocurrency went up 100%. The horse is a speedball that loves Keeneland, and my fondness for him comes from big bets in 2020 that paid for a trip to Charleston. Not Charles Town you degenerates, Charleston. Although both are very nice places to be.
$0.50 Pick 5 2,5,7,11 with 3,4,5,6,8 with 2,3,4,5 with 10 with 1,2,4 ($120) CASHED FOR $10.00 OK maybe some coverage for Nashville here makes sense in the first leg given the extra distance he has never conquered. Plenty of other high confidence horses to single. I just don't see Golden Pal getting upset in the 10th. Turf sprints are won by specialists, and this colt is 4 for 4 lifetime at the 5 1/2 furlong sprint, including two wins at Keeneland.
Race 7 $200 to Win on #3 LADY ROCKET (3-1 ML) Lost, 4th I think Cox has had this race circled for this mare for a while and she will be fresh with a four month layoff and sharp with a consistent series of very sharp workouts. She has versatile speed and is ready for the Grade 1 win.
$0.50 Pick 5 2,3,4,5 with 10 with 1,2,4 with 1,4,9 with 3,4,6,7,11 ($90) CASHED FOR $39.00 This is the only day of the meet that we have three Pick 5's offered. Using Golden Pal as the free square again here, and really spreading in the last leg, which might be the most competitive race on the card with horses shipping here from a whopping 9 different tracks.
Race 8 $500 to Win on #10 GOLDEN PAL (4-5 ML) CASHED FOR $800.00 At this point of the card, you will either REALLY need a winner bad or you have built up a nice bankroll and are ready to step it up on a safe bet. This colt is your friend. I think he will again show the fastest early speed as he has in every start, but every if he doesn't clear, he still will run faster.
Race 10 $100 to Win on #9 TABOR HALL (10-1 ML) Lost, 11th Time for the Long Shot of the Day...Ken McPeek is one of the rare overall positive ROI trainers, and it's not because of his 16% win rate. This guy brings the long shots, and this one looks like a Kenny Special -- great pedigree, patient development (broke maiden on 6th try), and aggressive spotting off of a long layoff.
Race 1 $100 to Win on #7 INSANITY IT SEEMS (3-1 ML) SCRATCHED The Beastie Boy in me wants to think King Adrock will sabotage the Wesley Ward plans, but I've been around long enough to know that you have to be pretty confident in a 2 yr old if you are trying to beat Ward in April. If Ward keeps both runners in, you might get more value in this runner which figures to be the second public choice. Last April, Ward two year olds were 8 for 16 overall, but 50% was actually a low win rate for him -- he has had win rates into the 60's/70's in previous meets.
$0.50 Pick 5 3,4,6,9 with 1 with 2,3,7,10,12 with 2,3,6 with 1,2,3,6,8,9,10 ($210) CASHED FOR $126.45 Scratches changed my strategy here in a big way from previous suggestion. Singling the 2nd leg now instead of the 5th.
Race 4 $200 to Win on #6 MARR TIME (9-2 ML) Lost, 2nd It is hard to imagine that this filly won't go off as favorite. She is the better of the Cox runners here and Pletcher's Grade 1 ML favorite is coming off of a 4 month layoff without bullet works. She has versatile speed and should enjoy the stretchout to two turns.
Race 5 $20 to Win on #10 MYOPIC (30-1 ML) Lost, 4th It was tough for me to find a confident longshot today, especially knowing today is the first day of the meet and the weather is a wildcard. Usually I will find a horse in the 8-1 to 15-1 range which has a strong chance of winning. Here, I 'm just taking a flyer on a big longshot that could win if the horse improves with a return to blinkers here. The horse has broken poorly and run without interest in the two tries without blinkers, so adding them back today could improve the horse's early speed. Reylu and Diodoro can pop some longshots occasionally.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 2,4,5,6 with 4,8,10,12 with 2,3,6 with 6 with 2,9,10 ($72) Lost My single in the Ashland Stakes is #6 Happy Soul. I doubt I will get any argument with the opinion that this filly is the speed horse, especially with Ward as the trainer, so the debate probably comes with what happens in the stretch. Her distance pedigree is decent enough and I loved her 6 furlong work last weekend. I fully expect her to have the stamina and look for Johnny V to collect the trophy.