2022 Fall Meet Totals Wagered: $6,570.50 Cashed: $4,000.77 Net Profit: -$2,569.73 ROI: -39%
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2 (3) with 1 (4,8) with 5,6 (4) with 3,7 (4) with 6,10,12 All A ticket $6 ($61.50 with B's) Lost
$200 to Win on #2 JOAN'S WAY (8-5 ML) CASHED FOR $334.00 This filly has been in-the-money in 11 of her 20 lifetime starts, yet still is a maiden. So even though this horse has a significant edge on speed figures, the betting public will have a hard time making her a definitive favorite because of the constant losing. The drop in class to this bottom level maiden class will help as will the addition of big time jockey, Luis Saez. If her can get her on the front end early, the horse will probably figure out that winning is pretty easy.
Race 2 $50 to Win on #1 BAYSHORE FOXES (15-1 ML) Lost, 5th If the horse breaks well from the #1 position, she has the speed to carry gate-to-finish. She already has a start here this meet, and the trainer is a successful 4 wins out of 12 starts at Keeneland.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 5 (2,7) with 9 (6,11) with 2 (5,8) with 4,6 (3) with 3,9 (1,6) All A ticket $4 ($60 with B's) Lost
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 5,6 with 10 (1,4,9) with 3,8 (2,7) with 3,4 (1,9) with 8,9,11 (3) All A ticket $12 ($180 with B's) Lost
Race 2 $50 to Win on #10 BUCKY BIK COIN (8-1 ML) Lost, 4th
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 2,3 with 6 (3) with 8 (6) with 5,9 (3,6) with 5,7 (4,6) CASHED FOR $14.70 All A ticket $4 ($44 with B's)
Race 7 $200 to Win on #6 KEY OF LIFE (8-5 ML) CASHED FOR $334.00 OCTOBER 27
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2,3 (6,7) with 1,2 with 2 (5,6) with 2,3 (5,6) with 11 (10) All A ticket $4 ($60 with B's) Lost
Race 3 $50 to Win on #2 WILD BEHAVIOR (15-1 ML) Lost, 2nd This 6yo gelding has a clear early speed advantage against this group and consistently rips opening quarters under 22 seconds. The long odds certainly reflect the obvious observation the horse hasn't sustained that speed and is winless this year, but I think he might be catching a weak field here today as he drops in for a claiming tag of $20k. Trainer Sharp has been anything but sharp at Keeneland, but this looks like the better of his two longshots here.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 10 with 9 (1,2,5) with 3,4 (1,2) with 6,9 (5,11) with 5,9 (2,6) CASHED FOR $8.46 All A ticket $4 ($76 with B's)
$200 to Win on #11 BRAVO KITTEN (2-1 ML) SCRATCHED The ghosts of Keeneland past would suggest that picking winners was just looking for the word Kitten in the horse's name. The Ramseys have a much smaller operation now, but this filly has been a consistent check casher even though there is only one win on the PPs. Look for a better closing kick today and the pace setup and the cooler weather should help the Keeneland turf course play a little bit more favorably to his late run (as long as Corrales doesn't move too soon).
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 6 (4,5) with 9,10 (3,4) with 4,7 (2,6) with 6 (3,8) with 1,3,4,5 (10,11) All A ticket $8 ($174 with B's) Lost
$200 to Win on #6 PASSIONFORTREASURE (6-5 ML) Lost, 3rd The Ohio-based trainer gets meeting leading jockey Gaffalione aboard the clear cut controlling speed horse in this card-opening starter allowance race. Stretching out to two turns here is no problem as the horse has won both sprints and routes.
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 6 (3,8) with 1,3,4,5 (10,11) with 2,3 (7,8) with 1,3,8 (4,6) with 6 (10,11) All A ticket $12 ($236 with B's) Lost
Race 5 $50 to Win on #3 POLICY OPTION (8-1 ML) Lost, 3rd This gelding is usually slow out of the gate and then gains ground the rest of the way, hitting the board more than half of the time. He went too wide last time in his first Keeneland start as the favorite and still finished a good fourth. I think she will get home first this time.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 3,7 with 2,6 (5,7) with 8 (5,9) with 2 (4,7) with 4 (2,10) All A ticket $2 ($52 with B's) Lost
Race 4 $50 to Win on #2 TILTINGATWINDMILLS (8-1 ML) Lost, 3rd They've left this mare in the race for the last three which all came off of the turf. The efforts were good, so today they decide that maybe she isn't just an artificial/turf specialist and enter her in a dirt race. Corrales is back aboard and if she can improve just slightly off of that 2nd place effort at Churchill in similar company, then she can win here at a price. The pace should be quick enough to give her a fair shot at a winning stretch run.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 4 (2,10) with 8,12 (10) with 1,4 (2,6,7,11) with 7,9 (6,8) with 7,12 (1,6,10,11) All A ticket $8 ($240 with B's) Lost
Race 8 $100 to Win on #7 BIG CITY MOMMA (6-1 ML) Lost, 6th This filly shipped in from New York last fall to break her maiden at Keeneland and returns today in search of her second win. She reunites with Tyler Gaffalione today and seems likely to get a good stalking trip behind a couple of need the lead pace setters. Shug McGaughey hasn't gotten his Keeneland win yet this meet, which is almost contractual and with the meet leading rider on, 6-1 sounds pretty good to me. (OK probably won't get 6-1, but give Nick Tammaro a break. He's a good guy. Andy Serling is giving him a break, so that is the right thing to do:) Even though Serling snarked about Battaglia's morning lines the last two meets. New York buddy system or Andy getting less grumpy?)
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 4,12 (7,10) with 8 (2,3) with 3,10 (1,8) with 6 (2,4) with 1,12 (4,5) All A ticket $4 ($108 with B's) Lost
$50 to Win on #4 WESLAN (15-1 ML) Lost, Last The big name trainers have some subpar runners in here, and I think this sets up for some outsider to steal the winning purse. This colt's debut race a Hawthorne appears ho hum, but I will latch on to the fact that the pace for that maiden special weight race was pretty decent and more than competitive for this maiden claiming level at Keeneland. If the horse behaves better in the gate, he might like the stretchout to 1 1/16 miles today and actually be the pace setter. Maybe they don't back up today?
Race 4 $100 to Win on #6 PARK AVENUE (2-1 ML) Lost, 3rd The filly gets back to a class level where she can comfortably sustain the pace setting fractions and outfinish the closers. When Mr B and Mr K agree, you need to believe!
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 8 (3) with 9 (3,12) with 3,6 (5,11) with 2,8 (7,9) with 2,9,12 (6,7) All A ticket $6 ($114 with B's) Lost
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 3,4 (2) with 2,9 (4,8) with 8,9 (5,11) with 1,4 (5,12) with 10 (1,6) CASHED FOR $26.86 All A ticket $8 ($144 with B's)
$100 to Win on #3 ZOOMER (9-5 ML) Lost, 5th The 6 year gelding has worked hard for his half million dollars in career earnings, with 11 wins in 39 starts and finishing in the money nearly half of the time. Since claiming this one for $50k this summer at Saratoga, trainer Mark Casse has taken shots in a couple of higher class races with no success, but today he gets back to a much easier class level, a $62k claiming race. The horse is versatile in running style, but I expect Hernandez to keep him on or near the lead in this small field.
Race 3 $50 to Win on #4 RESURRECTION ROAD (10-1 ML) SCRATCHED After falling off form this summer under Derby-winning trainer Eric Reed, the owner moved to Midwest trainer Steve Manley and took a big class drop with the horse off a short layoff. That got the horse back to the winners circle with a driving wire-to-wire win at Hawthorne. If that was the refresh that this mare needed, she has back class that exceeds the $12k claiming tag for this race, including a win at Keeneland in 2021 in a $40k claimer. This group is not that accomplished and I like the jockey pickup in Mitch Murrill.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 1 (3,11) with 7,8,11 (1,3,4) with 13 (6,8) with 3 with 4,5 All A ticket $6 ($42 with B's) Lost
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 8 (4,9) with 3 (10) with 8 (7,13) with 1,5,6,8 (3,7) with 8 (6,9) All A ticket $2 ($60 with B's) Lost
Race 2 $100 to Win on #3 EVOKING (6-5 ML) Lost, 7th The filly has been off for over a year, so why take a chance at a short price? Well it's a good spot to try the easier claiming race off the shelf, because I'm sure most will want to see a race before claiming her. But this might be the only opportunity, because if she returns with the natural speed, which often is replicated off of a layoff, then the others in here will be far behind.
Race 3 $50 to Win on #8 SWISS GUARD (8-1 ML) Lost, 8th Asmussen tried to sneak him into a maiden claimer at Churchill and he got picked up by Vanden Berg, which wins at a nice 26% clip off of the claim. She has an early speed advantage here that can be used to control the pace.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 8 (6,9) with 1,3 (5) with 9,10 (12) with 7 (1) with 3,6 All A ticket $4 ($41 with B's) Lost
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,3 (4,10) with 4,6 (1,5) with 2,6 (3,7) with 9 (4,5,10) with 8 (3,4) CASHED FOR $48.29 All A ticket $4 ($132 with B's)
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 9 (4,5,10) with 8 (3,4) with 6,8 (5,7) with 6,7 with 9 (1) Lost All A ticket $2 ($50 with B's)
$200 to Win on #9 ZAP MOTION (5-2 ML) Lost, 5th A big class drop here and a turn back to 6 furlongs should do the trick. This jockey/trainer combo is hitting at a 37% clip and the horse has the highest speed figure and the classiest maiden win (MSW at FG) among these NW2L.
Race 7 $50 to Win on #6 CHATTALOT (8-1 ML) Lost, Last The colt has been off since March, but has been drilling works in prep for today's race. As the youngest horse in the field -- the only 3 year old -- there is a lot of potential for improvement. If he gets a sharp break, his controlling speed might be too much for these other sprinters to match.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,5 with 1,2 with 5 (2,3) with 1,5 with 3,11,12 (6) All A ticket $12 ($48 with B's) Lost
Race 2 $200 to Win on #5 RIGHT TONE (8-5 ML) The Kentucky Downs effort last out can be ignored for form because turf isn't his surface and it was just a tightener try. This class drop into a claiming race brings him back to the level where his speed figures become top notch. Gaffalione picks up the mount which is a healthy indication that the second career win comes in this spot today,
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 3,11,12 (6) with 6,9 (4) with 8,12 (2) with 6,9 (1,3) with 7 All A ticket $12 ($63 with B's) Lost
Race 8 $50 to Win on #9 NO SHIRT NO SHOES (20-1 ML) Lost, 3rd A new gentleman is making the morning line this year and it has been pretty off, so I recognize that some of my longshot picks, which are based on a morning line of at least 8-1, are not ending up as long shots. This one certainly won't end up as the longest shot in the field and probably not 20-1, but there is still a lot of value here. These out of town connections take their crack at the big leagues today with this gelding that ripped a fast workout here last week and snuck in here last fall to win an optional claimer at 22-1. That race happened to be his career best, so that could indicate that either the horse really likes the track here and/or that the connections only come here with live ones.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 5 (4,7) with 5,10 (11,12) with 4,6 (3) with 6 (1,5) with 2 (3,8) All A ticket $2 ($60 with B's) Lost
$100 to Win on #5 BACKSIDEOFTHEMOON (9-5 ML) Lost, 2nd Maybe it is crazy to expect a 10 year old to show the consistency to win a third consecutive race, but the horse is still cycling up in form and Gaffalione is really in tune with this horse since taking over duties.
Race 3 $50 to Win on #4 BIZZY ECHO (8-1 ML) Lost, 6th A couple of dull efforts have led to a class drop down to the $20k claimer level and that might do the trick to get the filly in the right group. This is a very inconsistent runner, but I am encouraged that Gaffalione accepted the mount. If this horse breaks well and gets to the front end, watch out!
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 7 (4) with 7,12 (4,14) with 1,6 with 6 with 4 (9) All A ticket $2 ($14 with B's) Lost
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2 (1) with 8 (9,11) with 6,7 (3) with 1 (7,9) with 6 (3,9) All A ticket $1 ($30 with B's) Lost
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 4,6 with 14 (5,9,12) with 12 (6) with 10,13 (1,2,4,6) with 6,12 (4,8) All A ticket $4 ($100 with B's) Lost
Race 8 $200 to Win on #12 STROBE (9-5 ML) CASHED FOR $276.00 The outside post isn't ideal with some other speed horses in here, but the debut was eye popping in the nightcap race on Derby Day. The colt has the speed to become a top sprinter, and the outside post and layoff doubts are necessary to get the odds to where this makes for a solid bet.
Race 10 $50 to Win on #6 COOPER TIME (8-1 ML) Lost, Last I usually tend to fade first-time starters, but this one comes with connections that usually have them ready to run on debut. Trainer Paulo Lobo gets a high rate with 22% debut winners and jockey Gerardo Corrales is skillful with young horses sprinting. I have liked the two 48 and change works at Keeneland which were a big improvement over the Ellis times. Might indicate a preference for the track; might indicate the trainer is tightening the screws for sharpness. Both are good signs and this wide open maiden claiming field begs for a hot money play to emerge or a long shot and this colt could be either.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 4,5 with 4,7 (8) with 4 (2,5) with 3 (1,8) with 2,4,9 (5) All A ticket $6 ($80 with B's) Lost
Race 2 $200 to Win on #7 DOOZY BATZ (1-1 ML) Lost, 2nd This twice beaten favorite is taking another class drop down to this bottom level (for Keeneland) maiden claiming race. Wesley Ward and John Velazquez are here to get this maiden broken and pick up a victory on the way out as this filly is priced to move at $20k.
Race 3 $50 to Win on #4 AIN'T SHE A PISTOL (10-1 ML) Lost, 6th I will take a stand against these Churchill Downs horses and give this filly a chance in her 3rd start with the new trainer to resume the form that led to the best performance in all of these PPs -- the June romp from this runner at Indiana Downs. Look for her to be forwardly placed. Trainer has a knack for hitting with longshots for a positive ROI in total.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 8,11 with 8,9 (1) with 3,6 with 1,2 with 9,10 (4,12) CASHED FOR $13.46 All A ticket $16 ($48 with B's)
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 4,6 (3,5) with 6,12 (3,10,11) with 3,12 (6,7,10,11) with 12 (1,3,5) with 10,12 (4,11) All A ticket $8 ($296 with B's) CASHED FOR $132.14
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 1,12 (3,5) with 10,12 (4,11) with 6,7 (11) with 1,11 (5,7) with 4,7 (5,8,10) All A ticket $16 ($252 with B's) Lost $50 to Win on #12 CAN'T HUSH THIS (15-1 ML) CASHED FOR $201.50 The two starter allowances at Kentucky Downs were not indicative of dirt form, and this is a much easier spot for this well bred dirt miler who has more potential than a maiden claiming win would suggest. If Gabriel Saez can be patient from the outside post and not gun the horse too early this horse has the pace profile to beat these restricted claimers at long odds.
Race 7 $100 to Win on #1 FORBIDDEN SECRET (8-1 ML) CASHED FOR $486.00 Longer ML odds than the typical best bet of the day, but there were not a lot of standouts to lock in on today, so let's get a price again. Pletcher has been hot of late and I'm a sucker for Saratoga 2 years olds coming to Keeneland. The best 2 year olds in the country debut at Saratoga and this has to be one of the best in the Pletcher barn. Irad says all systems go.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 3,5 with 4,6,8 (2,7) with 5,6 with 2,5 with 5,7 (3) CASHED FOR $11.46 All A ticket $24 ($60 with B's)
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 2,7 with 10 (7) with 4,10 (3) with 1,3 with 3 (2) All A ticket $4 ($22 with B's)
$200 to Win on #5 LOVE REIGNS (4-5 ML) SCRATCHED This future star filly had a smashing victory in her debut at the Spring Meet, and after running 4th at Ascot in a field of 21 and a professional stakes win at Saratoga, I can't see why anyone in today's field will challenge her. Believing the hype.
Race 10 $50 to Win on #3 CIBOLIAN (15-1 ML) Lost 7th Recent form hasn't great, but he has the back class for turf distance races that the rest of the field can't really match. He just missed by a neck in this same race last fall at Keeneland, and I like that Geroux took interest in repeating the attempt again this meet. Blinkers are back on after a failed experiment last out and I think he will be closing well if the pace is honest.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,8 (2,5) with 7,10 (4,5,6,9,11) with 4,5 (6,8) with 4 (1,7) with 2,11 (1,4,6) All A ticket $8 ($270 with B's) Lost
Race 5 $50 to Win on #11 EMBRACE (8-1 ML) CASHED FOR $754.00 It took a trip to Belterra last month to get the maiden win, but the next effort last out at Churchill Downs was very impressive. He was the longest shot in the field at 58-1, yet closed willingly for 4th at a speed figure that is far better than the rest of today's field can match. The colt should like the extra furlong today and if the pace gets a little bit contentious, this one is set up for a sweeping stretch run and will be kicking the best of them all.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 4 (5,7) with 3,5,6,8 (2,9) with 3,5 with 1,8,10 (2,15) with 5,12 (9) All A ticket $24 ($214 with B's) Lost
$100 to Win on #4 GOLDEN PAL (4-5 ML) CASHED FOR $137.00 I recognize that Bad Beat Brian might be the better hunch play after yesterday's crushing DQ in the 5th uncashed the early Pick 5 hit, but logic points to this grade 1 winning star who is 3 for 3 at Keeneland. None of these other turf sprinters have the consistent cruising speed that can be carried through a final furlong.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 I will ditch the caveman format this year in favor of using A and B horses. The All-A ticket will be the budget ticket of the best betting choices in each leg (not necessarily favorites), but for those looking for bigger tickets I will also include my B horses in parenthesis to give more combinations that should allow for a higher win rate in what is a short meet. My meet stats will reflect the full use of A's & B's -- winning tickets could have up to two B horses -- as that is what I will actually bet. I recognize it is too large of an outlay for some, but it will pay off over the course of the meet if I hit just a few of them. 1,2,3,4,7 (5,6) with 2,5 (1,7) with 7 (3) with 7,9 (2) with 1 (9,12) CASHED FOR $481.90 All A ticket $10 ($147 with B's)
Race 3 $200 to Win on #7 KEY OF LIFE (8-5 ML) CASHED FOR $378.00 Anything close to the effort this filly delivered in her maiden win last out will be sufficient to beat this field of two year olds. Brad Cox and Florent Geroux are a high percentage trainer/jockey combo, so you probably will only get something around even money, but this looks like the only free square on what is a tough opening day card. If all you are looking to do today is double your money, this is your one stop shop.
Race 4 $50 to Win on #9 MARK OF THE Z (15-1 ML) CASHED FOR $363.00 Most Fairmont Park (now Fanduel) shippers into Keeneland would be an automatic toss on class, but keep looking down the past performances and you will see that this horse did win here at Keeneland last October in the same type of race. Turf sprints aren't something all tracks are able to consistently card, so horses that prefer these have to be vagabonds to some extent. Today's competition isn't as tough as he's been facing, so it seems that lightning could strike twice here in October.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 1 with 1,2 (3,5) with 4,7,8 (3) with 2,5,11,12 (1,4) with 6,11 All A ticket $24 ($92 with B's) Lost