2020 Fall Meet Totals Wagered: $19,220.00 Cashed: $15,281.10 Net Profit: -$3,938.90 ROI: -20%
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 ALL with 1,3 with 9,5 with 10,1,3,9,7 with 5,4,2,7 ($360)
$20 to WPS on #9 GO TWEET (10-1 ML) $5 Exacta Box 4-7-9 ($30) $1 Trifecta Key Box 9 with 2,3,4,5,7 ($60) $10 Double 7,9 with 1,3 ($40) During this Keeneland meet, the top ten jockeys in the standings have won 101 of the 151 races this meet, so many capable jockeys get passed over by trainers and agents who seek out these top of the standings jocks. Jack Gilligan has not won a race since Aug 31 at Louisiana Downs (hasn't even finished 2nd), so why am I predicting a 32 race streak losing streak will be snapped today? Because it isn't that Lil' Buddy is any worse of a jockey than Gerardo Corrales, he just doesn't have good trainer connections in Kentucky. He wins a race almost every day when down in Louisiana. OK, so what about this horse? Isn't that what makes the difference. Yeah, this one drops inc class today to the maiden claiming ranks and has a couple of encouraging recent works. But really, I am picking this one because Mr K has been pestering me all meet on a daily basis to "go tweet". This first race is really a crap shoot. I'm going ALL in the Pick 5. Let's root for the underdogs! Race 3 $200 to Win on #9 REASON TO SOAR (9-5 ML) $20 Exacta 9 over 3,5 ($40) $20 Double 9 with 1,10 ($40) The Diodoro "training methods" have really turned this 6 year old gelding around. Reason to soar indeed. Claimed for $8k in June and now the solid favorite in a $21k optional claimer, his recent speed figures tower over this field. Should be on or near the lead all the way around the track.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 2,5,1,7 with 4,12 with 8,1,7,2,4 with 5,4,3,12,4,1 with 10,7,2,11,6 (before scratches)
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 5,3,4,6,1 with 2,5 with 7,2,5,4 with 6,4,1,8 with 7,3,4,1,8 ($400) CASHED FOR $321.60
Race 3 $500 to Win on #7 FIRST CONTACT (10-1 ML) Lost, 6th $5 Exacta Box 2-5-7 ($30) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 7 with 2,3,4,5 ($36) Lost $10 Double 2,7 with 4,6 ($40) Lost None of the other experienced maiden runners in here have run a speed figure that is up to par for this level, so I think this first-time starter here is a good bet at 10-1. Late blooming first-time starters are not always the best bet, but I absolutely love seeing that sharp bullet 5 furlong work out of the gate here at Keeneland last week, clocking in under a minute. In addition, he remains a colt, which likely is out of respect to the fact that he is a well bred sprinter from Brereton Jones.
Race 5 $500 to Win on #7 SHADES OF TRUTH (6-1 ML) Lost, 2nd $5 Exacta Box 3-4-7 ($30) CASHED FOR $149.50 $1 Trifecta Key Box 7 with 1,3,4,8 ($36) CASHED FOR $102.20 $20 Double 3,7 with 9 ($40) CASHED FOR $178.00 You have a solid favorite here in #3 Good With Numbers, who is the only experienced horse in the race. But let's try the best of the first-time starters here for our favorite trainer, Tom Amoss. Similar to my race 3 pick, I love debuting horses who have scorched their gate works ahead of the race. David Cohen has been having a good meet and will ride this one aggressively and confidently and hopefully sweeps the field on the final turn.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 9,8 with 9,4,1,10,8,2 with 9,4,7 with 14,3,10,4,7,5 with 4,1,9,6 ($432) CASHED FOR $270.45 5 with 9,4,1,10,8,2 with 9,4 with 14,3,10,4 with 4,1 ($48) Lost
$1000 to Win on #9 COLOR OF DAWN (1-1 ML) CASHED FOR $1,800.00 Even with a troubled start in her debut, this filly ran an impressive race last out and just missed the win. Watch the tote board for barn money, but it is unlikely that any of the field will run well enough in their debut to beat a repeat of that effort. Tough to make money on an even money shot, but just add a zero to what you normally bet. Maybe hedge in the horizontal wagers, because if this horse does get beat, a lot of tickets will go up in flames and the payouts will be huge.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 7,1,5,2 with 6,8 with 1,5,4,6,3 with 3,1,7,6,4 with 6,8 ($200) Lost
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 6,8 with 2,9,7,11,1,13,12 with 2,3 with 9,2,10,3,8 with 4,9,5,7,1,12 ($420) Lost
Race 6 $20 to WPS on #2 FIGHTING SEABEE (10-1 ML) CASHED FOR $118.00 $5 Exacta Box 2-7-9 ($30) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 2 with 1,7,9,11,13 ($60) Lost $10 Double 2,9 with 2,3 ($40) Lost This colt is the turf graded stakes winner of this bunch, with a Grade3 win at Saratoga last year. But the long odds reflect that the horse has yet to make his 3 year old debut, having not raced since the Jockey Gold Cup at Churchill last November. So while it is reasonable to think that the horse might "need a race", I am thinking that this horse simply outclasses this field and will soon return to graded stakes company. I doubt you will get longshot odds if you wait until the next race.
Race 8 $100 to Win & Place on #9 JULIUS (6-1 ML) Lost, 5th $10 Exacta Box 2-9-10 ($60) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 9 with 2,3,8,10,11 ($60) Lost $20 Double 2,9 with 4,9 ($80) Lost This beaten favorite will have a lot of haters (Mr. K and Trey S among those) after that last effort at Churchill and concerns about this needs-the- lead type getting caught in a speed duel with other horses. But I like betting trainers like Peter Miller that only enter horses at Keeneland when they are live and jockeys like Florent Geroux who only ride for a trainer when they have something good. If they can get this problem of drifting out in the stretch fixed today, this horse will prove fastest of the bunch.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 6,5,1,4,7,3 with 2,1,3,6 with 11,2 with 8,4,3,1 with 2,3,8,1 ($384) CASHED FOR $781.75
Race 3 $500 to Win on #11 MADAME READY (5-1 ML) Lost, 2nd $20 Exacta Box 2-11 ($40) CASHED FOR $300.00 $20 Double 11 with 4,8 ($40) Lost Trainer Steve Asmussen isn't really known as a turf trainer, as only 10% of his races are on turf. Add to that the fact that his winning percentage is weaker on turf than dirt and that he and his regular Keeneland rider, Ricardo Santana, only win at a 6% rate together on the turf. So why do I like this filly? Well it stands out that starting out this horse in a turf route is such a bold move for him, that he must be really excited about her potential. And I would be too given a top notch turf pedigree as a More Than Ready from a European mare.
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 8,4,3,1 with 2,3 with 7,2,6,4,8 with 3,4,8,5 with 8,7,10,4,9 ($400) CASHED FOR $813.05
Race 8 $20 to WPS on #8 PYTHONESS (20-1 ML) Lost, 5th $5 Exacta Box 7-8-10 ($30) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 8 with 4,7,9,10 ($36) Lost This maiden has improved in each of her last two starts since a summer freshening and now get one of the better Keeneland jocks and Asmussen's top pick, Ricardo Santana Jr, to jump on for the time time for a major upgrade. Two good works since her last start indicate that the improvement will continue today. With some rain, the turf might be playing less than firm so you might be able to beat the shorter prices here with a horse that will look to make a backstretch move to position for contention into the final turn. If she can avoid a troubled trip, she might light up the toteboard today.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 5,4,6,8 with 4,1,2 with 1,4 with 6,5,8,1 with 1,11,5,8,6,7 ($288) CASHED FOR $3,611.75
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 1,11,5,8,6,7 with 7,3,8,5,6,2,4 with 7 with 1,5,4 with 5,3,2,1,6,8 ($378) CASHED FOR $32.85
$20 to WPS on #1 IN LOVE (8-1 ML) CASHED FOR $176.00 $5 Exacta Box 1-5-11 ($30) Lost $10 Double 1,11 with 3,7 ($40) Lost
Race 7 $100 to Win & Place on #7 MOTAGALLY (3-1 ML) CASHED FOR $510.00 $10 Exacta Box 1-3-7 ($60) CASHED FOR $93.00 $20 Double 1,7 with 1,5 ($80) Lost
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 5,2,4,1 with 1,2,4 with 5,4 with 3,7,8,9 with 2,12,9,7 ($192) CASHED FOR $24.20
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 2,4,1 with 11,5 with 4,7,3,6 with 5,10,2 with 6,4,9,8,1 ($180) Lost
$100 to Win & Pace on #2 JESSUP (5-2 ML) Lost, 3rd $20 Exacta 2 over 1,4 ($40) Lost $20 Double 2,4 with 11 ($20) Lost Gaffalione picks up the mount off of the claim for trainer Danny Gargan, who wins at a high 36% rate in the 1st start for his barn. He was just a neck away from being 2 for 2 lifetime, and this horse should be a successful starter allowance horse for the new connections. Look for him to show the best early speed and a gate to wire score is a good bet here.
Race 10 $20 to WPS on #6 REVENIO (20-1 ML) Lost, 8th $5 Exacta Box 4-6-9 ($30) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 6 with 1,4,8,9 ($36) Lost Zito's barn isn't what it used to be, but this NY shipper comes back to what has become a pretty weak claiming circuit in Kentucky. This $20k level should be ripe for the picking for Talamo.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 7,3,4 with 1,3,7,5,8,6 with 3,7,1 with 6,5,9 with 1,2,6 ($243) CASHED FOR $19.20
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 9,4,8,7 with 9,3,8 with 4,3,6 with 6,11,1,9,12 with 3,8 ($180) Lost
Race 8 $20 to WPS on #4 SEVEN NATION ARMY (12-1 ML) CASHED FOR $28.00 $10 Exacta Box 3-4 ($20) Lost $10 Double 3,4 with 6 ($20) Lost I think the ML favorite’s late running style and a short field will compromise his chances and make him vulnerable. This Remington Park shipper can show good speed and the trainer is capable to pull the upset here.
Race 10 $100 to Win & Place on #6 DESTINY'S DARLING (9-5 ML) SCRATCHED This filly has been in over her head a little bit and has been stuck at this NW2 condition for too long (winless in the past year). Today will be the fourth straight class drop and gets her to a place where she should be dominant. She has always shown enough early speed to get her in a position to win and her speed figures give her an advantage in this sprint. Trainer Adam West usually delivers with his favorites and only calls Mena for the good mounts.
Race 1 $100 to Win & Place on #5 CABO DORADO (5-2 ML) CASHED FOR $180.00 $20 Exacta 5 over 1,4 ($40) Lost $20 Double 5 with 5,6 ($40) Lost $0.50 Pick 5 5,1,4,2 with 5,6 with 4,3,7,6 with 3,4,8,5,10,1,7 with 1,7,8 ($336) CASHED FOR $53.40 I struggled to find a Best Bet today that I had my usual confidence in, thus picking this likely winner, but going wide in the first leg of the Pick 5. What sold me on this one was 1) a pretty meaningful class drop to a level most of these have already failed (the trainer wins at a 33% rate on class drops), 2) a troubled trip last time which involved a slow start and a steadying (sticking with Bridgmo who wins at a 34% rate with this trainer), and 3) while she may be the favorite, I don't expect bettors to pound her down to even money or anything, so there should be good value.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 1,7,8,6 with 5,4 with 8,10,9,5,1 with 5,6,10,2,7 with 2,3,9,7,8 ($500) CASHED FOR $93.30
Race 7 $20 to WPS on #8 PARADE FIELD (15-1 ML) Lost, 6th $5 Exacta Box 8-9-10 ($30) CASHED FOR $52.00 $1 Trifecta Key Box 8 with 1,5,9,10 ($36) Lost $10 Double 8,10 with 5,6 ($40) Lost His 3rd place effort last out at Kentucky Downs had a lot of good things other than an in-the-money finish. He showed more early speed than he has in previous starts, which should prove useful for the return to the dirt track today. A turf route like that, particularly at Kentucky Downs, should be something that builds some stamina, which will prove helpful here at 9.5 furlongs. That coupling of speed and stamina improvement might be him back to his Oaklawn form from earlier this year, and those speed figures tower over this field much less experienced field. Time to break the NW1 condition for this gelding.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 5,6,4 with ALL with 2,9,5 with 6,4,2 with 6,4 ($135) CASHED FOR $75.30
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 6,4,2 with 6,4,5,1 with 3,1,12 with 5,8,7,4,9 with 3,5,9,8,7 ($450) CASHED FOR $79.35
Race 6 $100 to Win & Place on #3 MOVIE MOXY (3-1 ML) CASHED FOR $550.00 $10 Exacta Box 1-3-12 ($60) CASHED FOR $111.00 $1 Trifecta Box 1-3-4-8-12 ($60) Lost $20 Double 1,3 with 5,8 ($80) Lost Trainer Eddie Kenneally has been pretty cold (1 for 26 over last 30 days) and this horse has disappointed as the betting favorite in all three career starts. But she has just missed in those last two starts and I think there will be value in the odds because bettors might seen these running lines and think this horse doesn't like to win. I expect her new jock, Geroux, to have her near the lead again and get her on top at the top of the stretch rewarding the money that stuck with her progress.
Race 8 $20 to WPS on #3 DUBLIN YINZ MONEY (10-1 ML) $10 Exacta Box 3-5-9 ($60) $1 Trifecta Key Box 3 with 5,6,7,8,9 ($60) Turf sprinting down in Louisiana didn't get the maiden broken, but this Tale of the Cat colt, has plenty of good dirt speed pedigree and should improve significantly. He was a beaten favorite last out and traditional handicappers will probably miss that the pace of those 2nd place finish efforts were much more challenging than today's field of cheap maiden claimers.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 4,3,2 with 4 with 2,3,6,1 with ALL with 4,2,9,5 ($192) CASHED FOR $23.95
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 4,2 with 5,2,1,3,7 with 1,9,8,7,5,10,6 with 8,9 with 9,5,11,10,6,4 ($420) CASHED FOR $40.10
Race 6 $100 to Win & Place on #5 SMOOTH WITH A KICK (5-2 ML) CASHED FOR $360.00 $20 Exacta 5 over1,2 ($40) CASHED FOR $312.00 $10 Double 2,5 with 1,9 ($40) Lost This is a well bred filly, but she has yet to fulfill her promise on the track yet with only two wins in 11 starts. But her longest price yet has only been 4-1, so her bettors have stuck with her and probably will do so again today. This field of Midwest allowance horses probably is weaker than the company this likely favorite has been keeping on the East Coast. If Brown and Castellano still have faith, so do I.
Race 7 $20 to WPS on #1 TWO PRINCES (8-1 ML) Lost, 6th $5 Exacta Box 1-8-9 ($30) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 1 with 5,7,8,9,10 ($60) Lost $10 Double 1,9 with 3,8 ($40) Lost Blinkers go on for this second-time starter who had a troubled trip in his debut. I like the experienced horses in October MSW races, and with good works and a KD try, this one can improve a lot from the rail. Watch the tote board here to see who is live.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 5,7,9,4 with 1,6,4,2 with 5,1,2,8,3,9,4,7 with 1,2,9,7,8 with 7 ($320) CASHED FOR $420.00
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 5,10,11,13,4 with 9,8,4,2 with 5,9,3,1,2 with 1,7,4,2 with 3,5 ($400) Lost
Race 8 $20 to WPS on #5 TITLE READY (10-1 ML) CASHED FOR $34.00 $5 Exacta Box 3-5-9 ($30) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 5 with 1,2,3,6,9 ($60) Lost $10 Double 5,9 with 1,7 ($40) Lost This horse scratched out of a turf allowance race on Thursday to take another Grade 2 shot on the dirt, so you can assume that trainer Dallas Stewart is feeling very good about how this horse is training. Although he ran a poor race in his last try against tough competition, he did win at the short Keeneland Summer Meet (3-2-1-0 at Kee) and a bigger field here helps ensure more cover and more pace in the race that would help set up for his closing kick.
Race 10 $100 to Win & Place on #3 COPLEY ( 5-2 ML) Lost, 5th $20 Exacta Box 3-5 ($40) Lost $10 Trifecta Box 1-3-5 ($60) Lost This 2-year old has disappointed in two tries for Wesley Ward, but drops to the maiden claiming level here and should find it an easier spot. The horse was also gelded since his last start, which should help address some of the distractions that plagued him. A sharp workout at Keeneland last week suggest that the gelding is ready to fire today and demonstrate his speed.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 6,3,1 with 4,1,2,5 with ALL with 11,12,3 with 3,1,8 ($324) CASHED FOR $1,568.75
Race 5 $100 to Win & Place on #3 FLATOYA (6-5 ML) CASHED FOR $280.00 $10 Exacta Box 1-3-8 ($60) CASHED FOR $129.00 $20 Double 3 with 1,6 ($40) CASHED FOR $180.00 "Experienced maiden" isn't what a trainer wants in his barn, but despite being 0 for 8, this filly is running faster speed figures than the rest of the field seems capable of. She has consistently shown good early speed, but tends to fade at longer distances, so a dirt sprint here suits her well. Her works have been solid and if she can outbreak the 8 horse and set a controlled pace, she will be in a good spot. The connections finally are throwing in the towel and putting her in for a claim the first time today, and that should do the trick.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 6,1,3,5 with 3,2,5,6 with 11,6,3,4,9 with 10,9,7 with 4,6,9,7 ($480) CASHED FOR $101.80
Race 8 $20 to WPS on #11 VISITANT (20-1 ML) Lost, 8th $10 Exacta Box 3-6-11 ($60) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 11 with 3,4,6,9,12 ($60) Lost The year-plus layoff since the Grade 2 at Del Mar obviously wasn't a vacation, so there is some mystery about which horse shows up today. But recent works have been great, and I love seeing the back-to-back 6 furlong works. Expect the colt to be fit today for this high win percentage trainer. Assuming he is back to that form, he is just as good of a horse as the favorites in this race and 20-1 would be a great price. I think the pace will be fast and a stalking trip from him might be the magic formula.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,2,5,4 with 6,3,7 with 9,5,2,1,7 with 5,1 with 1,8,2,9,6 ($300) CASHED FOR $42.70
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 5,1,3,6,8 with 8,1,9 with 11,9,3,8 with 3,1A,6,5 with 2,3,4 ($360) CASHED FOR $210.20
Race 8 $20 to WPS on #11 SOVEREIGN APPEAL (10-1 ML) CASHED FOR $196.00 $20 Double 9,11 with 1,3 ($80) Lost $5 Exacta Box 3-9-11 ($30) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 11 with 3,5,6,8,9 ($60) CASHED FOR $316.30 I think this is a wide open race and expect the big barn trainers (Pletcher, Brown, Cox, Asmussen) to get overbet here. The value in the race is this 10-1 ML filly who looks to really improve while adding blinkers. This trainer is an impressive 5 of 15 when adding blinkers, and a look at the PPs here suggest this will be a good move for this outside breaking horse. Without the blinkers, the filly never really broke well and seemed uncomfortable in a pack of horses. The best move was in her 2nd place finish where she rallied up the rail with no horses to her inside. Her race there was much faster than any of these other fillies have run, and that ability should be on display today.
Race 10 $50 to WPS on #6 TWIRLING WILDCAT (6-1 ML) SCRATCHED Trainer Wesley Ward is well known for his prowess with 2 year olds like this one, but the stats show that his win rate isn't really any different with older horses. Where he really excels is with class drops, and especially drops from MSW to MCL, where the win rate is 39%. I would discard the debut showing on turf, which was likely just an experiment and an experience. This horse is bred for any surface and she show some good speed.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 6 with 7,5,2,4 with 7,4,5,8,9,2 with 7,1,4 with 8,3,1,7,4,9,13 ($252)
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 7,1 with 8,3,1,7,4,9 with 1,2,6,3 with 7,5,3,1 with 8,1,9,6 ($384)
Race 5 $20 to WPS on #8 FRONT MAN (30-1 ML) Lost, 6th $10 Double 3,8 with 1 ($20) Lost $5 Exacta Box 1-3-8 ($30) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 8 with 1,3,4,7,13 ($60) Lost You won't get a more wide open race than this, with a favorite that is more likely to finish out of the money than in the money and full field of 12 in a turf allowance. Both Mr B and Mr K see this as the race to pick their longshots today. Go as wide as you can in the multi-race wagers. Front Man is the choice for me here because when you dig in to the pace analysis in his last two races you see a horse that stalked a very very slow pace (25+ and 50+ for 1/4 and 1/2 fractions), but still improved position in the stretch and they came home fast in the end (22 & 23 last quarter fractions). With a more honest pace, I expect this one to close down the stretch very well, similar to his maiden win at this distance.
Race 6 $100 to Win & Place on #1 QUEEN NEKIA (1-1 ML) CASHED FOR $120.00 $20 Exacta 1 over 2,6 ($40) Lost $20 Double 1 with 5,7 Lost This mare just simply outclasses the field. She has been racing in graded stakes races this year and the rest of the field has been claimers. The starter allowance conditions here allow this mismatch to happen because this one raced in a claiming race back in 2019. Needs an honest pace t close into, but Gaffalione who jumps on is no dummy.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 6,1,3,2 with 7,6,2,4,8 with 4,2 with 1,6,7,4 with 4,3,8,1 ($320) Lost
Race 6 $100 to Win and Place on #6 GOLDEN PAL (8-5 ML) SCRATCHED $0.50 Pick 5 1,4,6 with 6,7,10,1,8 with 4,7,10,11 with 4,2,3 with 9,1,8,11,3 ($450) Lost
Race 8 $20 to WPS on #2 HIDDEN ENEMY (8-1 ML) SCRATCHED
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 4,3,6 with 8,4,1,5 with 2,5,4,6 with 5,7 with 4,1,2 ($144) Lost
Race 3 $100 to Win & Place on #2 PICO D'ORO (3-1 ML) Lost, 5th $100 Double 2-5 Lost $20 Exacta 2 over 4,5 ($40) Lost This colt broke his maiden in a stakes win at Ellis Park, so not the usual jump in class here for a non-winner of 2 lifetime. The key to success in that victory was jockey Joe Talamo (back on today) keeping him wide in a sweeping closing move. This colt hasn't liked the inside traffic, but trainer William Morey looks to fix that problem today by taking off the blinkers, which should make the horse perform much better. This son of Curlin out of a Bernardini mare has a top pedigree and looks to have a lot of upside. And he has been drilling his morning workout pattern with stamina building 5 furlong breezes. The colt rolls today.
Race 4 $50 to Win on #5 BELLAMORE (8-5 ML) Lost, 2nd $20 Double 5 with 1,4,9 ($60) Lost With Chad Brown favorites like this, you might not get value, but you get wins. Long-time KP fans know that I give a lot of extra credit to young horses that debuted at Saratoga, and this filly ran a good second last month in her maiden special weight race first time out as a 2-1 favorite. She was fast, and anything close to a repeat of that performance will be enough to dominate this field.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 4,8,5,1,2 with 1,7,3,5 with 2,4,5,1 with 8,7,4 with 6,1,7 ($360) Lost
Race 8 $20 to WPS on #2 DALIKA (10-1 ML) Lost, 4th $10 Exacta Box 2-4-5 ($60) Lost $20 Double 2,4 with 7,8 ($80) Lost Hopefully my longshot pick doesn't scratch like yesterday because this looks like a speed horse that could steal the race in the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes. He impressive win last month at Kentucky Downs really demonstrated that she has the ability to make the step up in class. This is a horse that worked on improving her finishing ability in a string of turf sprints earlier this year, but as a turf route horse she looks best on the front end. If she can outbreak the #6 horse and grab an easy lead, I think Saez can keep her on top the whole way for a big upset.
Race 1 $50 to Win on #5 PATRIOT'S WAR (9-2 ML) Lost, 2nd $20 Exacta Box 1-5 ($40) Lost $20 Double 1,5 with 1,7 ($80) Lost $0.50 Pick 5 5,1 with 7,1,10,8 with 1,5 with 5,1,7,2,4,3 with 4,9,10,1 ($192) CASHED FOR $11.00 The favorite is formidable, but Patriot's War should really love the switch to dirt for the first time and could pull the upset. Workouts at Ellis have been consistently sharp and we might see the gelding getting involved a little early in the pace. Trainer Brendan Walsh doesn't get overbet like some of the bigger names and his runners are generating a positive ROI. This is the value play.
Race 5 $100 to Win & Place on #4 SUPER QUICK (4-1 ML) Lost, 3rd $20 Double 4 with 4,9 Lost Half of the field is first-time starters in this maiden special weight contest, and I'm not expecting them to displace this Ellis Park debuter from the winner's circle. In last year's Fall Meet, of the 33 MSW races, only 5 of the races were won by firsters (15%), even though they represented 34% of the fields. The pick here was well bet on debut and showed early speed and I see a big step forward against a relatively weak field.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 9,4,7 with 8,5,4 with 4,9,3,2,5,6 with 4,2,7 with 3,5,11,2,10,7 ($486) CASHED FOR $411.40
Race 8 $20 to WPS on #8 COPPER TOWN (12-1 ML) SCRATCHED This was my Longshot of the Day on the last day of the short July meet, and at 12-1 this horse fought hard to hold the lead before relenting to finish second. After a super easy win at Belterra -- more of a workout with purse money -- this horse takes the big jump to a Grade 2 sprint for Wesley Ward, who is known to pull off upsets in big races. This horse likes Keeneland and has the early speed to pull off the wire to wire upset if left uncontested on the front end.