APRIL 22

I like quite a few longshots today, so I am going to try to capitalize on this by building some bigger Pick 5 tickets and also betting these longshots to win and in exacta boxes.

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
5,10,1,11,7,8 with 4,2 with 7 with 3,6,7,8,4 with 8,4,7,5     ($120)     CASHED FOR $22.70

$20 to Win on #5 ARTOS   (10-1 ML)     Lost, 2nd
$5 Exacta Box 1-5-10   ($30)     CASHED FOR $56.00

Race 4
$20 to Win on #3 TOOTSIE   (30-1 ML)     Lost
$5 Exacta Box 3-6-7    ($30)     Lost

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
8,4,7,5 with 1,6,7,10,12,3 with 2 with 4,2,8 with 9,1,10,2,6    ($180)     CASHED FOR $29.10

$50 to Win on #8 BLUE STEEL   (8-1 ML)     CASHED FOR $240.00
$5 Exacta Box 4-7-8   ($30)     Lost
$1 Trifecta Key Box 8 with 2,4,5,7   ($36)     Lost
Is this a cheap Ohio-caliber horse or a speed horse who dislikes off tracks and turf? This trainer/jockey combo has already popped a winner her at Keeneland and I think it can happen again today. I think there is an opportunity to control the pace today and Miguel Mena doesn't get a lot of mounts anymore, but he wins at a high rate with the few he gets.

Race 6
$20 to Win on #1 QUEEN BRIDGET   (20-1 ML)     Lost, 10th
$5 Exacta Box 1-6-7  ($30)     Lost

Race 8
$100 to Win on #4 DADDY IS A LEGEND (3-1 ML)     CASHED FOR $240.00
$10 Exacta Box 2-4-8   ($60)     CASHED FOR $182.00
$20 Double 4 with 1,9,10   ($60)
We should get a fair price here since this is a 6 yo mare that hasn't run since last September. But it's clear she is a Grade 1 caliber mare and outclasses this field if ready to run.

Race 9
$20 to Win on #9 SISTER'S GHOST  (10-1 ML)     Lost, 4th
$5 Exacta Box 1-9-10   ($30)     Lost

APRIL 21

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
4,7 with 2,1 with 10,3,4,12 with 5 with 3,7,6     ($24)     Lost
With the 8 race card today, there are overlapping Pick 5s. Some small fields in here, but tough to find a confident single. With the overnight snow, there might be more scratches than normal and we will have to see if they keep things on the turf.  **MANY SCRATCHES  & OFF TURF**

Race 3
$20 to Win on #8 PRAIRIE  (8-1 ML)     SCRATCHED 
This one has more of a turf pedigree I think, so check to see if they keep it on the turf today. The horse was favored in his debut last fall and has been favorite in 3 of 4 starts, so you know that he has some backside and pedigree supporters. He returns to two turns today and hopefully those sprints developing a closing ability to showcase today. 

Race 4
$0.50 Pick 5
5,3,4 with 3,7,6,11,2 with 6,7,8 with 9 with 11,1,5,7     ($90)     Lost
Races 5 and 7 have some main-track-only entrants who must be considered if they are off the turf today. That would change this ticket.  **MANY SCRATCHES  & OFF TURF**

Race 8
$100 to Win on #11 TESORINA   (9-2 ML)     Lost, 4th
It's always hard to separate two Wesley Ward runners, but I like the one who has had some starts. A 4yr Ward maiden is a rarity, but the filly has been putting in good works for her season debut today. She has shown early speed in the past and might be well positioned from the outside to just sit off of the early pace. 

APRIL 18

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
3,2,7,6,5 with 5,2,1 with 2,1 with 7,2,1,8 with 5,3,4   ($180)​     Lost

$20 to Win on #3 SCARLETT LACE (12-1 ML)     Lost
$5 Exacta Box 2-3-7   ($30)     Lost
$1 Trifecta Key Box 3 with 2,5,6,7   ($36)     Lost
Leparoux has been cold, but worth taking a shot with him in a wide open turf race.

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
5,3,4 with 1,6 with 3,8,7,1 with 5,7,2,8 with 2,10,7,1,4   ($240)     CASHED FOR $336.60 


Race 6
$100 to Win on #1 ALFIE SOLOMONS   (3-5 ML)     Lost, 3rd
​Sure it looks fishy. But guy is just looking to pare down his barn at the end of the meet. The ole' Maker move -- get the win and the meet title, get claimed, and go forward with your best horses

APRIL 17

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
2 with 5,3 with 10,6,4,2,5,3,1 with 4,3,6 with 10,4     ($42)     Lost
Small fields have plagued Keeneland in the early part of their cards this meet. So the early Pick 5 goes skinnier than the late one. I think the ML oddsmaker whiffed on the likely favorite in the first race, which will probably be the #2. Went wide on the turf sprint in the 3rd leg--not great at handicapping those.

Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
8,5,3,6,1,4 with 4,6,8,3,1 with 1,7 with 2,8,9,3,7 with 6,11     ($300)     Lost
I see a lot of vulnerable favorites in here, so I am going bigger with the ticket today. Fingers crossed that I hit another big one today. 

Race 8
$50 to Win on #1 FINAL JEOPARDY  (8-1 ML)   Lost, 6th
$5 Exacta Box 1-2-7   ($30)     Lost
$10 Double 1 with 2,5,8   ($30)     Lost
Trainer William Morey is obviously finding Keeneland tougher than the Turfway meet he won, but I'm sure this horse would be the favorite if the connections were Ward/Saez. He's the best horse in the race and a sharp gate drill proves he is ready to fire on the big stage.

Race 10
$100 to Win on #6 FINNEGAN (3-1 ML)     Lost, 11th
The 8 year old gelding ran his bet race in 3 years in his Turfway win off of the layoff. Incredibly, he wasn't claimed for $5k and now Wesley Ward steps him up to this starter optional claiming race. That is a big vote of confidence that his form is really good again. Trust in Ward!
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APRIL 16

Race 1
$1 Pick 5
​2,5 with 5 with 2,3 with 3,1,2,5 with 4,3,6,1    ($64)     Lost
Skinny on the front end and doubling the bet size. Lots of tough to beat favorites in the first half of the card. We are seeing jockey Luis Saez start to dominate this meet and he gets his pick of mounts, so you know his well-connected agent, former trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, has him on all of the live horses. 
 
Race 2
$100 to Win on #5 KEEP YOUR DISTANCE  (8-5)     CASHED FOR $190.00
Good older mares like this can keep cashing checks for a while in these Starter Allowance races. Although this one is 0 for 2 lifetime at Keeneland, I think she gets the pace setting lead and outworks this small field in the stretch.

Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
1 with 7,4,9,10,8,6 with with 9,5,6,10,7,8 with 3,5 with 3,5     ($72)     Lost
I think the favorites are much more beatable in here. In the 9th race Grade 3 feature, I think the favorite, Speech will be overbet. Yes, she was a Grade 1 winner here last summer, but couldn't repeat that success in the fall and hasn't been back to the races since her Breeders Cup loss. 

Race 8
$5 Exacta Box 5-6-9   ($30)   Lost
$10 Double 5,9 with 3,5   ($40)   Lost
Tough to find value like this at Keeneland this meet.

Race 9
$50 to Win on #3 GRACEFUL PRINCESS (12-1 ML)   Lost, 3rd
$10 Exacta Box 3-5   ($20)     Lost
$1 Trifecta Key Box 3 with 1,2,5,6    ($36)     CASHED FOR $93.00
$10 Double 3,5 with 3,5   ($40)     Lost
I'm thinking this late developing mare (only 10 lifetime starts at 5yrs old) with leading meet jockey Luis Saez pulls the big upset in the Doubledogdare. Pletcher tabs Saez as they look to repeat this one's best race they paired up for last year at Gulfstream. She ran well that day off of a layoff and the horse has been freshened for today's race. Training pattern looks good and well meant for this spot. Beyer loyalists will turn their nose up at her inferior speed figures, but sometimes pace makes the race and if Saez can get her to the front, they might not catch her.
**The scratch of the #7 horse give the #3 less pace competition--that is a very positive development**

​APRIL 15

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
5,2,8,7,6 with 5,1,3,6,4 with 9 with 2 with 9,11,5,13,3,2   ($75)     Lost
Hopefully the course dries up a bit and we can return to the turf and a fast track. A Wes Ward is my top choice in the two 4.5f MSW sprints, but can't single those with confidence this meet. The 2nd race turf sprint is probably as competitive as the morning line suggests-no horse with a line longer than 8-1. Singling my best best of the day in the 4th leg allows me some bankroll to get wide in the 5th leg, where there are a lot of good turf horses.

Race 4 
$100 to Win on #2 SAINTSATION (2-1 ML)     Lost, Last
$20 Double 2 with 5,9,11   ($60)     Lost
Dropping in class for the third consecutive race and off of a good 2nd place effort, indicates a desire by the connections to find a winning level. Look for Graham to get this horse a clean trip near the pace setters and enjoy the cutback to a shorter distance.

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
9,11,5,13,3,2 with 5,8,3 with 3,7,2 with 2,7,1 with 2,9   ($162)     Lost
Hate to need to go wide in that 5th leg again -- these overlapping P5s put a lot of pressure on that difficult race. Not that it gets easier from there, but some logical contenders and a few longshots in the mix create a value opportunity.

$20 to Win on #9 IMPERADOR  (8-1 ML)     Lost, 4th
$5 Exacta Box 5-9-11   ($30)     Lost
$1 Trifecta Key Box 9 with 2,3,5,11,13  ($60)     Lost
I may regret not just singling this Argentina horse. The Grade 2 try last out might have been too ambitious in the 2nd start off of a long layoff. This class level makes more sense right here. This is a positive ROI trainer whose horses always outrun their odds. The workout tab looks sharp and gives me confidence that this one will fire with early speed that carries.
 
APRIL 14

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
4 with 6,4,2,5,1 with 5 with 9,2,3,10,6 with 13,10   ($25)     Lost
Off the turf now and lots of scratches.

Race 3
$50 to Win on #5 MUBARMAJ  (5-2 ML)     CASHED FOR $90.00
For such a well-bred horse in the Pletcher barn, I am a little concerned about the drop to claiming ranks, but the horse has had poor form and as a 5 yr old has certainly not lived up to expectations. But Todd only brings horses to Keeneland for winning spots and I still believe this horse has a big talent edge over the rest of the more experienced field.

Race 4
$0.50 Pick 5
9,2,3,10,6 with 13,10 with 3,6,7 with 8 with 7,3   ($30)     Lost
Off the turf now and sloppy track. Lots of scratches.

Race 5
$20 to Win on #8 VEZPA (12-1 ML) SCRATCHED
$10 Double 10 with 3,6   ($20)     Lost
Brazilian horses always seem to do well at Keeneland. Long layoff for the mare, but best bred turf horse in here.
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Race 6
$20 to Win on #3 TAKE CHARGE PATTI (8-1 ML)     Lost, 5th
$5 Exacta Box 3-6-7   ($30)     Lost
She's 0 for 15 lifetime, but drops in for a tag for the first time and switches back to dirt where she ran a good 2nd last meet under Bejarano. Good recent work.

Race 7
$20 to Win on #5 ALNASEEM (12-1 ML)   SCRATCHED
European horses are just better turf horses. First time here in the States and off of a layoff, but worth a shot at a big price for the Irish bred.

APRIL 11

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
2,3 with 5 with 7,3,1,4 with 7,5,6 with 1,3,5,4   ($48)     Lost
Looking for either a Ward upset in the opener or catching some bombs again in these small fields

Race 2
$50 to Win on #5 BLACK KETTLE (3-1 ML)   Lost, 4th
I expect an easy early lead and a comfortable pace for this lightly raced mare. Good works suggest fitness and this small weak field doesn't seem to be much of a threat.

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
1,3,5,4 with 3 with 8,10,6 with 2,1,4 with 9,7,3,2   ($72)     CASHED FOR $72.20
Will probably see some scratches here if things come off of turf.

Race 9
$20 to Win on #9 ROBIN'S FANTASY (15-1 ML)     Lost, 4th
$5 Exacta Box 3-7-9   ($30)     Lost
$1 Trifecta Key Box 9 with 2,3,5,7   ($36)     Lost
Maiden special weights on the turf can bring some interesting results. This first time starter has been zipping through workouts on the dirt, so I would stick with him whether this stays on the turf or moves to the dirt track. 

APRIL 10

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
5 with 2,5,1,8 with 6 with 4,1,6,5,2 with 1,5,2,11,7   ($50)     CASHED FOR $25.75
In the first leg, I think #5 will be the dominant controlling speed. Very high on the Best Bet of the day in the 3rd leg (also Mr K's best bet). 

$50 to Win on #5 GET HAMMERED (2-1 ML)     Lost, 5th
The horse has been away from the races for over a year, but is firing good works this spring and speed horses like this often come back ready to sprint. This is a 30% trainer and one of the best jockeys around.

Race 3
$100 to Win on #6 TURNAGAIN TIDE (8-5 ML)     CASHED FOR $160.00
Blazing workout and Cox and Ortiz are lined up to have a monster day. The Into Mischief colt is a late bloomer, a 4 year old racing for only the second time, but the breeding and workout suggests big upside beyond today's likely win.

Race 7
$0.50 Pick 5
3,5,2 with 3,1,2,8 with 1,2,3,9,5 with 1,3,6,2 with 7,11   ($240)     CASHED FOR $8,362.00
Had to go bigger than normal  because I see good value in the late Pick 5 here. If you need to narrow it down, you could single the #3 in the first leg, but there are a few surprise horses in there that could launch the payout even higher. Same with the 10th race. #1 Michelin is the likely winner but there are a couple of others that could leave us with some large will pays going into the last leg.

Race 9
$20 to Win on #1 NOBLE REFLECTION (15-1 ML)     Lost, 5th
$5 Exacta Box 1-2-3   ($30)     Lost
$1 Trifecta Key Box 1 with 2,3,5,9   ($36)     Lost
Although this field already has some graded stakes horses, none of them ran as fast of a race as this gelding did last out when breaking his maiden.  Yes, he is handling two turns today for the first time, but the breeding is good enough to get the added distance. I'm very encouraged by the good works since that big win, suggesting this horse is blossoming at the right time.

APRIL 9

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
1,7 with 4,1,3 with 6,3,5,8,9,11,2 with 4,8,6,12,10 with 1   ($105)     Lost

$50 to Win on #6 EPICUREAN (9-5 ML)     SCRATCHED
A twice beaten favorite that should feel some class relief against a weaker field

Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
5,4,2,1 with 7,9,4 with 5,6,7,2 with 8,5 with 2,4   ($96)     CASHED FOR $4.50
Race 7
$20 to Win on #3 CARIMBA (8-1 ML)     SCRATCHED
This is "the other Ward". The heavy ML favorite, #8 Campanelle,  definitely has the better 2yo resume with a Group 1 win in France, but neither have a 3yo start yet and a lot can change in 6 months at this age. I think Carimba is quicker now (slightly faster work last weekend) and I wouldn't think Ward would be double entered in a non-graded stakes race with Campanelle here if he thought she was invincible.

APRIL 8

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
3,6 with 7,5 with 2,6,4 with 8,4 with 7,6,5     ($36)     Lost

Race 2
$50 to Win on #7 TWILIGHT GLEAMING   (8-5 ML)     Lost, 2nd
It is unusual to be three days into the meet without a Wesley Ward 2yo maiden sprint win, but the natural balance should be returned today at around 1:40pm. 

Race 3
$20 to Win on #2 AFLEET MOMENT (20-1 ML)     Lost, 6th
$5 Exacta Box 2-4-6    ($30)    Lost
$1 Trifecta Key Box 2 with 4,5,6   ($18)     Lost
Stepping up in class after two poor efforts at Turfway certainly gets you long odds - probably even longer than 20-1. So what's the angle here? Well let's just assume that the Tapeta wasn't to his liking and go back to his previous start, which was here at Keeneland last October at the same level. He led through the first half of the race but was contested throughout and faded badly in the stretch. Could he get an easier lead today and not fade this time? Worth finding out at a price. Yes, I am aware that the jockey is 0 for 124 lifetime...

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
7,6,5 with 8,7,2,6,10 with 2,3,5,6 with 1,11 with 7,5,4   ($180)     Lost
This is the best betting Pick 5 of the meet so far. I couldn't find any singles. I know Keeneland bettors are pretty sharp, but I would think payout should be four figures.

APRIL 7

Race 1
$1 Pick 5
 with 6 with 6,3,7,1,2 with 6 with 6,5,3,1,7   ($0)      SCRATCHED -- single in the first leg was a late scratch after flipping in the paddock
Trying to skate by the first two legs with favorites. The first leg is a Wes Ward special--even though he got off to a poor start this past weekend, no reason to think he won't still dominate these 4.5 furlong 2yo MSW sprints. In the 2nd race, #6 Cleveland Simpson is a standout for me and the 2-1 ML odds would represent great value. For a $1 on this thin ticket.

Race 4
$0.50 Pick 5
6,5,1 with 6,5,3,1,7 with 4 with 3,9,11,10,2,1 with 6  ($45)     Lost
Overlapping Pick 5s today, but using a couple of singles here. 

Race 5
$20 to Win on #6 NEVER CONTENT (8-1 ML)     Lost, 5th
$5 Exacta Box 3-5-6   ($30)     Lost
$1 Trifecta Key Box 6 with 1,3,5,7   ($36)​     Lost
The filly has only offered mild improvement in her first four starts as a midpack runner. But the turf breeding is solid and 8-1 is a juicy price for successful connections like Repole/Maker/Gaffalione.

Race 6
​$50 to Win on #4 DON'T FORGET (9-5 ML)     Lost, 2nd
Just superior speed ratings here against a weak field. 

APRIL 3

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
1 with 7,3,1 with 7,5 with 4,13,3,9 with 2,5,1,9,8   ($60)     CASHED FOR $82.50
Pletcher's horse, Ghazaaly, should be ready to fire in the first race. Big prices from the rest of the way,

Race 3
$50 to Win on #7 KING'S MISCHIEF (10-1)     Lost, 6th
$5 Exacta Box 5-6-7  ($30)     Lost
Did not show much as a 2 year old, but rebooting here under Ian Wilkes for a 3 year old debut should prove more successful. Well bred and workouts suggest fitness and laying of a hot pace today.

Race 7
$0.50 Pick 5
1,3,6 with 2,9,13,7 with 5,2,4 with 5,3,2,1 with 4   ($72)     CASHED FOR $67.00
Singling the odds on Kentucky Derby favorite, Essential Quality in the final leg

APRIL 2

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
2,1,7 with 1,5,6 with 8,7,3 with 4 with 10,4,7,2,3,6   ($81)     Lost
Not singling the Ward 2yo horses in 1st and 3rd leg although they are most likely winners. Keying on the Al Stall horse in the 4th race, #4 Carribean Capper, who dominated in her debut race at FG. The 5th race is wide open and the best betting race on the card today. The favorite is unlikely to win and it will be a full field scramble on the turf course.

Race 4
$10 Double 4 with 4,10   ($20)     Lost
Pairing a single with a couple of longshots

Race 5
$1 Trifecta  4,10 with 2,4,7,10 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,10   ($30)    Lost
#10 Azrael grabs the service of one of the best turf jockeys around, Florent Geroux, and #4 La La Land could lay back early and close with a rush in a race that might have some pace. Expecting the favorite to fizzle.

Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
​2,12,1,8 with 8,3,5,4 with 2 with 5,1,4,2 with 9   ($32)     Lost
Lots of well bred ones to consider in the 6th race. The 7th race features a couple of good Ward horses, but not going all in on Ward today and hoping for a price in this race (or the other legs). Tough to beat the favorites in races 7 and 9. Hoping for my longshot of the day to score in the 9th race, #5 Barrister Tom at 12-1 ML. 

Race 9
$20 to Win on #5 BARRISTER TOM  (12-1)     Lost, 4th
$10 Double 5-9     Lost
This gelding looks to be the clear pace setter if Van Dyke gets a clean break and the Keeneland turf course can favor speed at times. Blinkers off might help here and the horse has been working out very well and can win this as a fresh horse off of a 3 month layoff. 

Race 10
$50 to Win on #9 PRECIPITATE (3-1)     Lost, 2nd
This is Chad Brown's only runner on opening day and Castellano's only mount. After a couple of 3rd place finishes on the dirt down in Florida, I suspect they are excited to make it late to Keeneland today to get this filly on the turf. 

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