2023 Fall Meet Totals Wagered: $7.899.00 Cashed: $3,693.12 Net Profit: $-4,205.88 ROI: -53%
OCTOBER 28 Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 3,8,7 with 7,6,8,2 with 5,2 with 5,12,10 with 11,9,4,13,7,5 Total: $
Race 4 $50 to Win on #12 HOWL (8-1 ML) You don't get many chances to get Brad Cox at these odds, and I think this first time starter has been training well and is bred to pop some speed from the outside post position today.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 3,6,1,7,8 with 6,2,7,1 with 2,1 with 12,10,8,3,9 with 12,8 Total: $
Race 9 $200 to Win on #12 BEST ACTOR (10-1 ML) And the award goes to Brad Cox and Flavien Plat again on another 12 horse. This colt's talent is popping at the right time and the Grade 2 try is well within his potential. HIs last race was an "in hand" career best and he looks to build on that today.
OCTOBER 27 Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 3,4,6,1,7 with 7,1,3,9 with 5,9,11,3,1,13 with 2,3 with 2 Total: $120 Lost
Race 4 $200 to Win on #2 BUCK MOON (9-2 ML) Lost, 3rd Mr B and Mr K both spotted this one as today's best bet, but be prepared for him to go off at favorite's odds, something like 9-5 or so. The only chance for a square price is if bettors focus on him being a beaten favorite the last three races at the lowly Thistledown and Hawthorne tracks. The trainer has a Keeneland win and wins at a 40% rate when coming back from a 2nd place finish. This runner should make the early lead with a clean break and hopefully we get him drawing off in the stretch without the sweat of praying for the wire in deep stretch.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 3 with 1,3,7,8,6 with 1,6,13,9,2 with 7,1,3,2 with 11,12,4,9 Total: $200 Lost
Race 7 $50 to Win on #1 COTTON CANDY ANNIE (20-1 ML) Lost, 7th There are lots of longshots to consider today, but this one plays a trainer angle, as Armando Hernandez is 3 for 3 at Keeneland and has good overall success in getting class jumpers like this to run well in the spot. This filly raced her best race of her career last out, giving the indication that she might be a blossoming 3 year old as we get late in the year. I look for Corrales to save ground along the rail and then find the hole on the final turn to slip through.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 4,1,5 with 3,5,4,6 with 6 with 1,2,5,7,10 with 3,7,10,5 Total: $120 CASHED FOR $36.18
Race 2 $50 to Win on #3 FREE RAMBLING MAN (12-1 ML) Lost, 3rd This mystery horse has migrated from the Louisiana circuit, but hasn't raced since May. He has been gelded since then and has been working out at Ellis and Keeneland in preparation for this race. He seems to have enough early speed to put himself into the race.
Race 3 $200 to Win on #6 OLGA ISABEL (6-5 ML) CASHED FOR $316.00 It seems as if Brad Cox patiently waited for the right spot this meet with this runner, and she seem to outclass the field here. It would not surprise me if she takes a stalking trip instead of gunning for the lead with some speed inside of her. Cox is the meet leader by 2 wins and Gaffalione is only one behind L Saez, so they are looking for the best spots.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 3,7,10,5 with 4,7,6 with 5,1,2,4 with 1,10,8,5 with 4,5,7 Total: $288 CASHED FOR $1,480.86
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 5,9 with 8,7,5,1 with 10,2 with 4,3,12,6,8,7 with 7,8,3 Total: $ 144 CASHED FOR $261.88
$50 to Win on #5 UNWRAPPED (8-1 ML) Lost, 4th The drop in class into the maiden claiming ranks last time helped his competitiveness and perhaps the blinkers on helped him show more early speed as he grabbed the early lead with sharp fractions for the level. The horse was then gelded and shows two good works recently at Turfway. I expect him to be the controlling speed and think he win like the two turns.
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 4,3,12,6,8,7 with 7,8,3,4,6,10 with 5 with 1,10 with 11,3,6 Total: $108 Lost
Race 6 $200 to Win on #5 SMOOTH WAVES (8-5 ML) Lost, Last This 2 year old filly took the longest of any in the field to break her maiden (in her4th start), but it was in convincing fashion with a 9 length win at Ky Downs. She tried a jump to Grade 2 earlier this meet, but just could get a good position from the #1 post position and finished mid-pack. Against this easier bunch, should should be better placed early and anything remotely close to that maiden breaker speed figure will crush this field.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 6,2 with 4 with 1,6,5 with 1,9,5,7,10 with 6,8,1,10 Total: $60 Lost
Race 2 $200 to Win on #4 FLASHY LASS (9-5 ML) CASHED FOR $674.00 Training very well for the Cox barn, and with blinkers off and a jockey change to the patient Prat, I expect the maiden breaker race today.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 6,8,1,10 with 4,3 with 8,5,9,3 with 11,7 with 3,5,2,6 Total: $128 Lost
Race 7 $50 to Win on #8 LOVELY PRINCESS (8-1 ML) Lost, 4th You never know when McPeek will strike, but graded stakes races are good bets for his mild longshots. Horse is 2 for 2 lifetime at Keeneland so you know this race has been targeted.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 5,7 with 5,2,9,1 with 4,7 with 5,4,1 with 8,9 Total: $48 Lost
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 1,3,4 with 8,6,9,2,3,12,10,7 with 9,7,10 with 6,7 with 4,10,11 Total: $216 Lost
$200 to Win on #1 VERIFYING (1-1 ML) Lost, 5th The wise guys like Mr K seem to be looking to beat this favorite who is taking a break today from the tougher graded stakes competition, but this is the Kentucky Derby pacesetter, who probably just doesn't like the off track. Easy lead, easy win here at 7 furlongs.
Race 8 $50 to Win on #5 POCA MUCHA (15-1 ML) SCRATCHED This horse can show some big closing kick at times and the pace should be hot, especially for a turf race. Bill Mott horses usually get overbet, but I think you might be a square price today
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,3,6 with 2,3,6,7 with 2,11,6,13,1 with 2,6 with 7,11,12,6,14 Total: $300 Lost
Race 3 $50 to Win on #2 NOTORIOUS SIXOHTWO (15-1 ML) Lost, 4th 602 is the Phoenix area code. Mr B needs to rise from the ashes this meet soon!
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 7,1 with 10,6,9,14 with 3,8,6 with 15,13,2,11,5 with 9,11,4 Total: $180 CASHED FOR $14.00
Race 9 $200 to Win on #7 EASTER (5-2 ML) SCRATCHED Mr B's best bets could use a resurrection.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 4,2,3,5 with 4,10,9 with 5 with 3,9,2 with 9,5,11,6 Total: $72 Lost
Race 3 $200 to Win on #5 GIRL AFRAID (2-1 ML) Lost, 7th Trainer Falcone is 3 for 3 with Saratoga to Keeneland shippers. The speed rating is her last race was a big jump which could indicate the 3yo filly is growing into a faster older horse. This starter allowance gives good cover for an easy win pick up.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 9,5,11,6 with 4,2 with 6,10,3,4,12 with 9,11,3,1 with 2,3 Total: $160 Lost
$50 to Win on #9 SAVE THE MISCHIEF (12-1 ML) Lost, 11th The debut race was off turf and I think because of that it can just be thrown out as an experience building public work out. She is back on the intended turf surface and should fly under the radar for some connections that are good at choosing their spot at Keeneland.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 7 with 8,6,7 with 3,8,5,2,1 with 7,5,3,6 with 11,7,12,13 Total: $120 CASHED FOR $17.31
$100 to Win on #7 JUBILENT JOANIE (6-1 ML) CASHED FOR $222 This beaten favorite got caught up in blistering fractions last time at Churchill Downs and I like the blinkers off move from Tom Amoss, which claimed this one at $16k and now jumps up to $30k here. The early speed of this filly should be dangerous against a bunch that doesn't seem as quick. Expecting a wire to wire score.
Race 3 $50 to Win on #3 STEEL RACER (10-1 ML) Lost, 5th Wednesday is the day where the jockey's agent is the best handicapper. The card is weaker and for the few top jocks that stay here during the week, they can pick and choose among the best contenders. Luis Saez, who has more wins in the last two weeks that the other 8 jockeys combined, bumps Corrales here. Follow the agent.
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 7,5 with 11,7 with 4,1,5,2 with 4,5,1,15 with 10,7,3,6,2,8,9 Total: $224 CASHED FOR $155.60
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,9,10,3,5 with 6,2 with 5,1,8,9 with 1,5,7 with 5,6,7,3 Total: $240 Lost
Race 2 $200 to Win on #6 SHOW OFF (8-5 ML) Lost, 2nd Jockey Corrales has been cold (0 for last 31) but the formula for this Brad Cox runner should be simple: just repeat the debut race effort. That speed figure and that wire to wire race style should make this filly 2 for 2.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 5,6,7,3 with 9,11,5,8,3,2 with 5,1,4,8,2 with 3,4,8 with 6 Total: $180 Lost
$50 to Win on #5 MARK OF THE Z (10-1 ML) Lost, 3rd This gelding is in the money at Keeneland turf sprints in 4 of 5 tries with 2 wins including one in last year's fall meet. A fast pace should set things up perfectly for a nice closing kick if Reylu can navigate the traffic.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2,4,10,1 with 7,1 with 6,3 with 1,5 with 2,9,5,8 Total: $64 Lost
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 SCRATCHED with 2,4,6,10,5 with10,9,8,11,6 with 4,10,2,13,12 with 1 Total: $0 SCRATCHED
$200 to Win on #12 DIVE BOMBER (20-1 ML) SCRATCHED The outside post isn't ideal, this horse got bet well up at Saratoga and should outclass this group. The speed is there to get near the front before the first turn and I think the two turns will favor her running style. Brad Cox is a good trainer.
Race 7 $50 to Win on #2 ALTAZOR (20-1 ML) Lost, 6th I expect this horse to try to steal the race on the front end. These Argentina horses are bred to run all day and I like them in these long routes at good odds.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 8,5,2,7,4 with 9,10 with 8,3,7 with ALL with 3 Total: $75 Lost
Race 5 $200 to Win on #3 SMART UNCLE (8-5 ML) Lost, 9th Although trainer Jonathon Thomas is cold at Keeneland (1 for last 21), he does have a 35% win percentage when he gives jockey Florent Geroux the call. This gelding showed alert speed in a turf route at Saratoga last out in a tough MSW but also came home faster than these others have demonstrated at a longer distance. I think he has been pointed to this Keeneland meet to break the maiden today, and a full field should keep the odds value there.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 1,2 with 9,2,7,11 with 9,11,4,2,13,14 with 7,1,2,11 with 3,11 Total: $192 Lost
Race 7 $50 to Win on #9 OCEAN ATLANTIQUE (8-1 ML) Lost, 5th Trainer Mike Maker was high enough on this gelding to try him twice at the Grade 1 level earlier this year and that proved to be too ambitious, but he is back into a better fit from a class standpoint now. He took a tough beat 2nd at KD last out, but I think that was a better race than the other contenders here are coming back from. His consistent and sharp workouts since then indicate he is ready for a positive step forward under Tyler G.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1 with 1,6,3,9,8,7 with 6,8 with 1,10,2,7 with 7,10,3,5,2,6 Total: $144 Lost
$200 to Win on #1 ONE GIANT LEAP (7-5 ML) Lost, 2nd As well known as Wesley Ward has become, he remains a positive ROI trainer at Keeneland. A sharp workout here last week signals the gelding is ready to run. So yes, odds on is likely here but I think cruises to the lead by at least the backstretch and romps while unclaimable in this starter allowance and against a weaker bunch today.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 5,1 with 3,11,8,6,10,12 with 7 with 11,10,6,3,7,4 with 5,10,7,6 Total: $144 Lost
Race 10 $50 to Win on #5 NURSEKRINGLEDANCES (12-1 ML) Lost, 4th Although he has been cold the past month, trainer Ian Wilkes has a positive Keeneland ROI and wins here at twice the rate compared to his other tracks. With this 0 for 12 filly, he has done a lot of experimentation including surface and distance changes, running styles, and today, blinkers on. Leparoux should have a good feel for this horse by now and I expect a closer to the pace effort here with a better finishing kick.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1 with 2,5,4,10,8,11 with 4,2 with 3,6,10,8,1,7 with 7,9,2 Total: $108 Lost
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 3,6,10,8 with 7,9,2 with 7,1,10,12,9,2 with 2,3 with 2,6 Total: $144 Lost
Race 5 $100 to Win on #7 ADIOS MUCHACHAS (12-1 ML) Lost, 6th With a turf-to-dirt angle and a strong final 1/4 time in his winning debut, this Canterbury shipper seems poised to close into what should be a hot pace and pull off the upset. Usually Keeneland bettors rightly favor the best barns and jockeys, but occasionally overlook these perfect fit longshots from non name connections. Wednesdays are made for these types.
Race 7 $50 to Win on #11 DOG RED (15-1 ML) SCRATCHED This gelding was claimed last out at Ellis and returns to Keeneland where he finished a good 2nd place back in the spring. He has won his only race at 8 1/2 furlongs and if he likes the Keeneland track again, could spring the upset in this subpar starter allowance race that doesn't seem to have any strong favorite.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 3,4,5 with 1,2 with 4,6 with 2,3,1 with 1,4,6,2,3 Total: $90 Lost
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 8 with 1,4,9,2 with 4,2,10,7,6 with 2,4 with 12,3,2,5,11,10,8 Total: $140 Lost
Race 8 $50 to Win on #4 SPONGE BATH (8-1 ML) Lost, 7th This 2yo colt was a debut winner at Ellis in a turf sprint and finished a nice 3rd at Ky Downs despite getting bumped at the start. There is probably a lot of speed in here, but not inside of him from the #4 post and he should be well placed early under Gaffalione, which is an upgrade at jockey today. Those Kentucky Downs racing are stamina-building which helps with turf sprints where a lot of runners get gassed on the backstretch.
Race 9 $200 to Win on #2 IDIOMATIC (7-5 ML)CASHED FOR $412.00 She beat her main rival, Nest, by 4 lengths in the last race and I don't see how that 4 lengths gets narrowed today in a 6 horse field. I expect Geroux to be able to secure the lead early and this runner seems to hold and extend those leads down the stretch.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,3,8,6 with 6,3,5,13 with 1,4,5 with 5,1 with 9,3,5,2 Total: $192 Lost
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 9,11,4,8 with 5,1 with 3,2 with 3,9 with 1,4,7,9 Total: $64 Lost
Race 7 $50 to Win on #5 HAPPY SOUL (8-1 ML) Lost, 5th She hasn't won a race since early 2022, but she has been very consistently in the money since then, including a 2nd place finish in this race last year. I like the trainer moves here to shake things up for this presser-style filly: blinkers on and coming back to dirt after a turf campaign this year.
Race 8 $200 to Win on #3 IN ITALIAN (4-5 ML) Lost, 2nd Her stablemate edged her out by a nose in her last race at Saratoga, but she likes Keeneland and probably is a little bit better at 8 furlongs today. She won this Breeders Cup prep last year here, and I expect her to come back as her usual game self and turn the tables on the other Chad Brown runner.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 9,12,8,5,6,11 with 6,1,10,13 with 1,4 with 4,8 with 5,6,11 Total: $144 CASHED FOR $103.38
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 9,8,12 with 8,9,4,2,5 with 10,5,1 with 7,6 with 4,7,5,13 Total: $180 Lost
$200 to Win on #9 TAMMY LYNN (2-1 ML) Lost, 2nd The runner-up debut effort in a big field at Saratoga last month should translate to victory here against mostly first time starters and some local runners. The turf to dirt change is well within her pedigree and her running style looked professional and I agree with the "willingly" comment.
Race 10 $50 to Win on #4 SCRIPT (15-1 ML) Lost, 4th A lot of the main contenders in here gave it a whirl at Kentucky Downs last month, but I like the fresh horse here who hasn't raced since the April meet. It's pretty easy to scroll down the past performances and see that he won here last October off of a long layoff at 6-1. To get there, he will need some pace in front of him, and I think there is a good chance that could happen with some of these outside post longshots gunning early.