APRIL 26

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
9,7,10,5 with 7,5,4,1 with 7,3 with 5,4 with 7,10
Total: $64
Expected payoff: $3,562
Win probability: 5%

Race 5
$100 to Win on #7 BLUE CREEK (20-1 ML)
This gelding is out of a lower percentage East Coast barn, so the intrigue comes from them shipping into Keeneland off of a 5 month layoff and picking up turf all star jockey Florent Geroux. The works have been sharp and I suspect this 3 year old debut will show something much better than the past performances from the 2 year old season where he showed some late kick occasionally but mostly was an also ran.

Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
4,1 with 9,1 with 6,8,4,1 with 7,8,5,3 with 2,3
Total: $64
Expected payoff: $1,484
Win probability: 6%


Race 10
$200 to Win #2 DOMINGO (3-1 ML)
​Let's close the meet with an easy winner! Anything close to the speed of the last effort will get the job done here, but I think the 3 year old colt has even more upside. 

APRIL 25

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
4 with 3,7,4,5 with 2 with 8,5 with 10,5,9,6,2
Total: $20     Lost

Race 3
$100 to Win on #2 KEROUAC (12-1 ML)     Lost, Last
Small fields here today as we finish the last couple of days of Keeneland.  Jose Ortiz jumps on this gelding making his 2024 debut and the Thomas barn has been working him out consistently here at Keeneland, so he she run fresh. They are taking the blinkers off, which might help with the persistent fade he showed when racing with them on.

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
10,5,9,6,2 with 2,7,3,4 with 1 with 9,11 with 8,10
Total: $40     CASHED FOR $9.88

Race 8
$200 to Win on #9 STYLE POINTS (2-1 ML)     CASHED FOR $666.00
The last two races were runner-up showings, but the speed ratings stand out vs. this bunch even in defeat. This step down from graded stakes level should be all the competition relief needed to get the job done.

APRIL 24

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
2 with 1 with 6,3,9 with 7,10 with 5
Total: $3     Lost

Race 4
$0.50 Pick 5
7,10 with 5,6 with 5,2 with 3 with 11,6,10,9,12,5
Total: $24     Lost

Race 7
$200 to Win on #3 HOWL (9-5 ML)     SCRATCHED
She got cooked in the early Grade 1 pace last out at Santa Anita in December, but regroups here in a much easier spot. She is best with a stalking trip. Romped here in her debut last fall, and I expect her to repeat that brilliance.

Race 8
$100 to Win on #11 VESTURE (8-1 ML)     Lost, 4th
This is her 2nd start in the Bill Mott barn, and I like the move to get her back on the turf, where she debuted at Saratoga. This is a 2nd time Lasix effort and I like the fact that she comes back for the second start this meet with Jose Ortiz picking up the mount.

APRIL 21

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
6,3,7 with 2 with 9,10,1,3,12 with 7,11,2 with 2,10,7,6
Total: $90     CASHED FOR $164.79
Expected payoff: $10,538
Win probability: 9%

$200 to Win on #6 SITTTIN ON GO (8-5 ML)     CASHED FOR $482.00
In starter allowance races, you get some big mismatches in speed ratings, because of the protection against claiming level type of horses getting taken away from the owners. And that is the case here with this gelding simply demonstrating in recent races that he is simply a faster horse than this field. There are a couple of quicker horses in here, so he may need to lay off of the pace a little bit, but Irad knows how to do that.

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
​2,10,7,6 with 7 with 1,4,6,3 with 1,5 with 2,4
Total: $32     Lost
Expected payoff: $2,734
Win probability: 5%

Race 7
$100 to Win on #1 VALENTINA DAY (12-1 ML)     Lost, 6th
​The #4 Mott Euro shipper will get all of the attention, but it's worth chancing that the favorite is vulnerable in her US debut, and I think I have the longshot that could pull the upset. After grabbing the lead and stopping badly last time at Turfway, the trainer takes the blinkers off here. It was the first start in over six months, so maybe there was some fatigue too, but both angles offer opportunity for improvement today. Also, this mare is best as a turf horse I think, and she returns to that surface today. Her best recent work was on a muddy track, which usually translates well to turf performance.  Corrales is as good as these other jockeys, he just doesn't usually get as many of the good horses.

APRIL 20

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
1,7,6,5 with 10,7,3,12 with 5,6,4 with 13,4,1 with 6,9,2
Total: $216     Lost
Expected payoff: $10,724
Win probability: 7%

$100 to Win on #1 PUT THE CRAZY AWAY (10-1 ML)     CASHED FOR $620.00
We have a maiden race here to open the card without any Ward horses to worry about, and this is a great spot to go longshot shopping. The rail horse here has consistently shown early speed and grabbed some in the money finishes, but has not yet graduated while bouncing around three different barns. Claimed last out by a trainer who hasn't been to Keeneland for awhile, I can see a path here with a good break. The horse has been on the artificial surface at Turfway since last year, but it is noteworthy that her best race was on the dirt in an Aqueduct maiden claimer. 

Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
11,10,12 with 3,8,7,9 with 4,11 with 4,9,5 with 2,5,1
Total: $108     Lost
Expected payoff: $3,125
Win probability: 10%

Race 9
$200 to Win on #4 KINGSBARNS (2-1 ML)     CASHED FOR $536.00
Grade 3 horses are usually either resetting or stretching, and this well-bred horse is the former. He won the Louisiana Derby last year as a 3 year old, but got cooked on the front end in the Kentucky Derby. He had a nice little win off of the layoff down at Gulfstream last month demonstrating a closing kick and seems ready to climb the ladder again. A versatile horse with talent from top connections.

APRIL 19

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
8 with 9,10 with 1,2,4,5 with 8,4 with 10,9
Total: $16     Lost

Race 4
$200 to Win on #8 RUN JALEN RUN (9-5 ML)     Lost, 3rd
None of the first time starters here seem like a threat, so it really comes down to the consistent and pronounced speed figure advantage that Joe Sharp's colt has. Of course the main knock is that he has lost more races (7) than any of the others in the field, and 3 times as the favorite. So why burn money on him again? I think the colt is rounding out his toolkit as a three year-old, and has been showing better early speed in the last two starts. Tyler stays on the mount, which is encouraging.

Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
3 with 11 with 3,7,4,6 with 6,3,5 with 10,11
Total: $12     Lost

Race 9
$100 to Win on #6 HIDDEN CONNECTION (10-1 ML)     Lost, 2nd
This mare returns to the same race, where she ran a hard fought 2nd at 11-1 odds. She was the pace setter that day and just got caught, but it was her only try at Keeneland and remains one of her best efforts. She has not tailed off though, and has remained a Grade 3 level contender when at her best. She comes in off of a layoff and seems fresh with a solid series of morning works.


APRIL 18

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
6 with 1,2 with 7,4,6 with 3,1,5 with 12,4,7
Total: $27     Lost

Race 4
$100 to Win on #9 ROUTE RUNNER (8-1 ML)     SCRATCHED
Perhaps the 5th place finish at the same level last out at Oaklawn makes the public think we have a longshot here, but I will definitely give this Asmussen runner the benefit of the doubt coming back after a six month layoff. I find it to be a good signal that the race was followed up by a sharp workout, and now ships in to a marquee meet and grabs the services of the top jockey. 
​
Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
12,4,7 with 7,1,2 with 13,1,14,8 with 7,9,2,1 with 6,1
Total: $144     Lost
Expected payoff: $14,739
Win probability: 8%

Race 6
$200 to Win on #7 SECRET CRUSH (6-5 ML)     Lost, 3rd
The race seems to set up well for this Pletcher colt, with the stablemate drawing the inside post and likely showing enough speed to keep a brisk pace against the other main contenders who all prefer to be up front. With a good trip Irad, should have an easy finishing move that gets him in the winners circle.

APRIL 17

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
6 with 2 with 6,2,4,3 with 9,3,6 with 3,6,2,4
Total: $24     Lost


Race 4
$0.50 Pick 5
9,4,3,8,6 with 3,6 with 5,3 with 2,11,8,9 with 6,8 
Total: $80     Lost

Race 5
$100 to Win on #3 DANCING NANCY (8-1 ML)     Lost, 8th
A couple of wake-up angles here that could help shake off the poor form this Joe Sharp filly has shown: 1) turf-to-dirt shipping back from Fairgrounds, and 2) a jockey upgrade to the meet-leading jockey, Tyler Gaffalione.  I see her as a likely pace setter give some solid early speed pace she showed in her maiden win at CD.  She was a beaten favorite as a 2yo here last Fall, and I think she can return to Keeneland as a winning longshot.

Race 8
$200 to Win on #6 INDY MAGIC (6-1 ML)     CASHED FOR $998.00
Most first-time starters are overbet, but I think this one might actually offer decent odds today if people overlook how sharp the late bloomer gelding's last workout was. He clocked in a 5f time under a minute off of the gate and anything similar to that pace will leave the rest of this field in the dust. 

APRIL 14

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
10,8,7,6,5 with 1,2,9,8 with 7 with xx with 1,5
Total: $      SCRATCHED


Race 2
$200 to Win on #1 QUINCY RIDER (2-1 ML)     Lost, 4th
He couldn't repeat his debut romp last out as the beaten favorite against winners for the first time, but the #1 post can be a good spot for his early speed and we get the jockey upgrade to Geroux. A couple of nice works at Keeneland show he isn't just a synthetic track horse.

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
1,5 with 3,8,7,9 with 12,7,6 with 6,9,3,1,4 with 8,7
Total: $120     Lost
​
Race 9
$100 to Win on #8 BEUYS (8-1 ML)     Lost, 5th
This Irish-bred has been stateside for most of his productive career, and stretches out to a very European distance here with 12 furlongs on the turf. Third start today with Maker and also third different jockey tried by Maker, and this well travelled horse might emerge as the classiest today if he can avoid the troubled trips. 

APRIL 13

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
1,3,4 with 3,4,5 with 12,3,4,6 with 1,9,3 with 9,2,12,5,1
Total: $270     Lost
Expected payoff: $4,288
Win probability: 11%

Race 4
$100 to Win on #1 BRODY (15-1 ML)     Lost, 6th
Half of this maiden special weight field is first-time starters, but I prefer a longshot here that already has some racing experience. Each of his five races have shown speed figure improvement, and the gelding is running with more early interest. The horse might be quick enough to grab the early lead from the #1 post, and this could be a surprise wire-to-wire score if the firsters aren't anything good.

Race 7
$0.50 Pick 5
8,11,9,6 with 2,7,1,3 with 6 with 2,9,8,10 with 9,1,2,8
Total: $128     Lost
Expected payoff: $4,232
Win probability: 7%

Race 9
$200 to Win on #9 GINA ROMANTICA (3-1 ML)       Lost 7th
This proven Grade 1 mare is two-for-two at Keeneland, and seems to be the best of the three Chad Brown runners, who obviously dominate in these big turf races. She is coming off of a layoff, but her works have been very sharp and I expect her to edge the others out at the wire.

APRIL 12

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
6,10,1,3,9 with 6 with 2 with 8,2,11 with 10
Total: $7.50     CASHED FOR $1.38

Race 3
$200 to Win on #2 THE PRINCE'S SPUR (5-2 ML)     Lost, 2nd
A 5 furlong workout the cooks faster than 1 minute is always noteworthy at this level, and that recent drill after his last start suggests this horse is sharp and his speed rating advantage can be trusted. Bauer is a high percentage, positive ROI trainer who is selective in choosing winning spots. 2nd race off of the layoff with a nice work seems like a winning formula here. 

Race 5
$100 to Win on #8 SUMMERINTAHOE (30-1 ML)    SCRATCHED
The long 30-1 odds are more about the low percentage connections rather than the horse. This might be the runner that steals the race on the early lead. It is his first start on turf and his first two turn try.  He has shown early speed as a sprinter a few times, and against non-winners of 1 other than maiden, I think is is poised to grab a big lead early here with a cleaner break. Loose on the lead longshot is one of my favorite plays.

Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
8,2,12,5,7 with 12,10,9,14 with 11 with 4,6 with 8,1
Total: $40     Lost

APRIL 11

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
8,3,2,1 with 8,9 with 6,4 with 8,1 with 4,1,7
Total: $48     Lost
Expected payoff: $1,617
Win probability: 5%

Race 4
$500 to Win on #8 JEFFERSON STREET (1-1 ML)     CASHED FOR $635.00
While this Bill Mott-trained colt is 0 for 2, his speed ratings make him an absolute standout against this weaker field. He has been working consistently in Florida this spring and looks ready for graduation today. The odds won't be great, but this seems like a spot for a well needed cash.

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
4,1,7 with XXXX with 7,10,5 with XX with 10,9,7,6,8
Total: $ SCRATCHED
Expected payoff: $9,851
Win probability: 11%

Race 8
$100 to Win on #1 READY TO PURRFORM (12-1 ML)     SCRATCHED
Cox and Geroux are a formidable turf pairing (30% win rate on turf with a positive ROI) and while the horse hasn't cashed in his prior two Keeneland starts, I think the jockey might use the #1 post position to put him in the race earlier than some of the recent starts and hope to recapture some of the early speed form the horse showed when winning a Grade 2 at Saratoga as a 3 year old.

APRIL 10

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
3,9,5 with 1,7 with xx with 3,12,11,8 with 10,7
Total:  SCRATCHED

Race 4
$0.50 Pick 5
3,12,11,8 with 10,7 with 1,15,16 with 5,3,8 with 8
Total: $36     Lost

Race 6
$100 to Win on #1 OVERBORE (20-1 ML)     Lost, 4th
This gelding gets back onto the turf today with Machado aboard, who piloted some good efforts last fall. This was a Saratoga runner-up a couple of years ago when in the Ward barn, and has since been stuck at this NW1 condition. There are signs of improvement within the more recent outings and if Luan can get a ground saving trip behind an expected hot pace, it will just taking some racing luck to find the lane for a winning stretch drive.

Race 7
$200 to Win on #5 ROCKETEER (7-2 ML)     Lost, 3rd
There are some chalkier horses in the 3rd and 5th races that could also be best bets, but I wanted to offer some apparent value here with this Brad Cox runner who makes his second start. He won here in his debut race as a 2yo, and comes back to try winners today. That is always a challenge (one several others are making here too), but Cox has good percentages with this move--and most other trainer angles, including blinkers off and sprint to route. And adding Tyler Gaffalione jumps all of the win rates. I would love 7-2 odds, although favoritism is more likely.

APRIL 7

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
X with 4,3,8,7,2,1 with 6,1,7,11,4,5,2 with 2,9,3,6 with 11,4
Total: $168      SINGLE in FIRST RACE SCRATCHED    
Expected payoff: $2,887
Win probability: 13%

$200 to Win on #6 SWEET KAUFY (2-1 ML)     SCRATCHED
The first two days have been cold for Mr B, so we will try to start off the Sunday with what is tried and true: Wesley Ward winning the two-year old 4 1/2 furlong sprints. Of course there are two Wards in here, which could make this hold true, yet Mr B whiffs again, but I like the chances of the Irad mount quite a bit. This filly also has been training in Florida, prior to Keeneland, which means she was with a higher regarded colony, rather than the Turfway barn for the other Ward. This is a good post position for this distance too. Best bet and keying in the Pick 5. Fingers crossed for what should be an easy romp.
​
​Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
11,4 with 2,5,4,3 with 4,6,1,8 with 1,6 with 1,8,5
Total: $96     CASHED FOR $39.87     
Expected payoff: $4,662
Win probability: 9%

​Race 6
$100 to Win on #2 CLAIRE'S JETE (12-1 ML)     Lost, 6th
This first time starter is out of a barn that wins at a high rate at Keeneland, with trainer and jockey combining for a 7 out of 14 win rate. Bauer's success with debut runners is also very high, winning at a 38% clip. Those are very encouraging stats for a 12-1 shot.
​
APRIL 6

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
3,8,4 with 6,3,4,5,7,2 with 6 with 1 with 14,9,7
Total: $27     Lost
Expected payoff: $439
Win probability: 7%
​
​Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
2,9,4 with 9,2,4,11,10 with 6,8 with 3,4,1 with 6,3,2
Total: $135     Lost
Expected payoff: $4,611
Win probability: 7%

$200 to Win on #2 WICO (4-1 ML)     Lost, 3rd
He was a beaten favorite in his first start of the season at Turfway, but Ward has kept him working regularly since and he should be sharp today. He won here last meet at the same distance and Irad Ortiz takes the mount, which is a good sign.

Race 11
$100 to Win on #8 INJUNCTION (10-1 ML)      Lost, 4th
He hated Oaklawn last time out which a lot of horses do, so I will excuse that dirt effort and look back to the horse's turf performance which is what he shifts to today. Last year he had a nice third at the competitive Kentucky Downs, and followed that up with a heartbreaking loss by a head here at Keeneland. Jose Ortiz takes the mount which is an upgrade.

APRIL 5
​
Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
5,9,1 with 12,11 with 6,4,1 with 6,1,9 with 5,2,7
Total: $81     CASHED FOR $8.28
Expected payoff: $6,340
Win probability: 9%

Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
6,5 with 9,4 with 5,8,6 with 4,6,7 with 3,9,7,1 
Total: $72     Lost
Expected payoff: $3,414
Win probability: 5%
​
Race 9
$100 to Win on #4 HALINA'S FORTE (8-1 ML)     Lost, Last
The filly runs around two turns for the first time today and tries graded stakes company for the first time, so it is understandable why old time handicappers who want a horse to prove themselves first might let this one go off for a decent price. But the Keeneland Spring meet can be all about the fresh horse with good trainer/jockey combos, and this one fits that bill. Her three year old debut was most impressive of the bunch, and it looks like she has become a fast and classy filly. 

Race 10
$200 to Win on #3 GUINEVERE (6-1 ML)     Lost,  10th
After a troubled start in the debut at Turfway, the filly stuck with it and finished 3rd. This beaten favorite has been blazing the workouts at Keeneland since that February outing for Wesley Ward. Sure this is a turf route, but two sub-1:00 works at 5 furlongs on the dirt is far quicker than the other horses in the field. A cleaner start and we are likely to see her controlling the speed and sustaining that pace against some less than spectacular maidens. I think the turf course will be an easy adjustment.

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