APRIL 18

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
4 with 8,7,9 with 3,7,8 with 7 with 9,1,8
$13.50 total

$100 to Win on #4 RAGHBA (3-1 ML)     Lost, 2nd
The horse has a case of seconditis,  placing in 5 of 9 starts, but that should create favorable win odds today as the public shies away. Blinkers stay off again today and Johnny V takes his turn.  Her speed figures suggest she is way better than this field, so she just needs to get the lead and create some distance. 

​Race 5
$50 to Win on #9 ROAD TRIPPIN (12-1 ML)     Lost, 5th
The colt goes turf to dirt today and drops down in a maiden claimer today, both smart attempts to improve the form. The horse has some closing ability, so if the pace is competitive, he could sweep the field in the stretch.

​Race 7
$0.50 Pick 5
7 with 2,1,7,6 with 8,1,3,7 with 2,8,9 with 7,10,3
$72 total

APRIL 17

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
6,3 with 5,2,7 with 3,5,4 with 1,3 with 3,10,5,1
$72 total     Lost

​Race 3
$100 to Win on #3 SENZA PAROLE (6-5 ML)     Lost, 2nd
A very troubled trip last time explains the 37 length loss, but ignoring that leaves you with a conclusion that this is the fastest horse in this race based on speed figures. Prat should have her well placed sitting just off of the pace, and she finishes very well in the stretch. Her class ceiling is higher than this NW3 allowance.

​Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
5,2,4 with 3,1,5 with 1,9,7,5 with 6,1 with 5,6,3,1
$144 total     CASHED FOR $29.07

​Race 8
$50 to Win on #8 BIG GARRY (30-1 ML)     SCRATCHED
OK, fair enough, 30-1 ML at Keeneland is an extreme longshot and it probably won't happen for Big Garry to outrun the horses from the big name trainers. But hear me out. A NW1X allowance turf sprint doesn't have a lot of killers in it --unproven horses that are facing winners for the first time or not quite good enough sprinters that would be jumping to stakes races if they were good. What does this gelding have that the others don't (besides the "equipment")? A string of blazing morning works after being off for a couple of months -- drilling 1:00 or less 5f works for 4 straight weeks. Some maybe happier and healthier now? And then go back to her only turf start,  a 5f sprint at CD. Flashed early speed and held on for 5th, only beaten 2 lengths at 85-1.

APRIL 16

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
4,3,1 with 4,8,3 with 12,8,3 with 7,3,1 with 4,6,5,9
$162 total     Lost

Race 4
$50 to Win on #7 ATTERSEE (8-1 ML)     Lost, 2nd
Gaffalione picks up the mount here and will likely have the colt forwardly placed. He ripped a very sharp work last week at Churchill and is a live longshot. This is a weak bunch of claimers, none of which show much interest in gaining ground in the stretch. It might be a merry-go-round race, and that would benefit this horse that will be on or near the lead if he breaks well.

Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
4,6,5,9 with 7,2,4 with 4,5,8,10,2,7 with 4,9 with 8,5
$144 total     Lost

Race 9
$100 to Win on #3 COMMON DEFENSE (3-1 ML)     SCRATCHED
The wins have come at longer distances for this horse, but that stamina can be used here too and no other horse has faster finish times than this one. Jose Ortiz and Kenny McPeek are a great pairing at Keeneland with a 36% win rate and a nicely positive ROI. I like this one better than many of the shorter-priced favorities we will see today.

APRIL 15

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
6,2,1 with 5,9 with 6,7,2 with 8,7,4 with 4,2,5     
$81 total     CASHED FOR $544.43

​Race 2
$100 to Win on #5 JOKER'S CHIC (9-5 ML)    Lost, 4th
This is a weak card today, so my Best Bet is not too imaginative: taking the Wes Ward filly in the 2 year old 4 1/2 furlong sprint. All first time starters here, and Ward is the best at these. Even at short prices, he gets a positive ROI in these given he wins 44% of them, so don't hate on "picking the favorite" here.

​Race 4
$0.50 Pick 5
8 with 4,2,5 with 5,10,6,2,1 with 1,3,2 with 3,1,8,7
$90 total     Lost

​Race 7
$50 to Win on #1 ALSTON (8-1 ML)     Lost, 3rd
The pace scenario will be interesting in this small field.  I have a hunch that jockey Juan Hernandez will try to hustle this one early if he gets a good break from the #1 post. #3 showed early speed last time in the maiden breaker, but I'm not convinced any of these are true pace setters, and at least this #1 horse was intended as a sprinter in previous starts. This one comes in off of a long layoff and shows only 2 career races as a 5 year old, so plenty of question marks. But the workouts have been good and consistent in prepping for this, and I think we could get a surprising form for a trainer that is good off of layoffs.

APRIL 12

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5 
11,10,3,5,8 with 2,5,6,3 with 8,7,2 with 2,11 with 4
$60 total     Lost

​Race 2
$200 to Win on #2 SENIOR OFFICER (1-1 ML)     CASHED FOR $284.00
This late blooming 5 year old gelding who has only 3 career starts seems very likely to match or improve on the last effort at Oaklawn which came after a 1 1/2 year layoff. Not many horses with speed figures this high still qualify for this NW1x allowance level, and this seems like a layup with Brad Cox on the job.

​Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
4 with 2,6,4 with 11,10,7,15 with 6,2,1,9,8 with 2,5
 $60 total     Lost

$50 to Win on #4 EZ CONNECT (10-1 ML)     Lost, 3rd
This is the linchpin race of both Pick 5s today, and of course it sets up as a wide open race that favors a longshot try. Ward brings this first time starter to the track today, and you know how skilled he is with those as well as with young turf horses. 10-1 is worth the shot.

APRIL 11

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
1,5 with 14,2,8 with 6,2 with 7,3 with 10,3,4,2,8
$60 total     Lost

​Race 7
$0.50 Pick 5
1 with 4,3,8,6,10,9 with 5,9,1,6 with 3,1,9,11 with 6,11,9
$144 total     Lost

$100 to Win on #4 CIRO DI MARZIO (4-1 ML)     SCRATCHED
This gelding has been away from the races since last summer but has been working out in the mornings very sharply for the hot Wesley Ward. This former Euro horse has picked up checks along the way with inconsistent appearances, but hasn't won a race since 2023. The oddsmaker must be overly worried about the layoff, but 4-1 would be too high of an overlay for a top Kee trainer, a sharp workout tab, and some pace flexibility.

​Race 10
$50 to Win on #3 DECISIVE WIN (15-1 ML)     SCRATCHED
This definitely qualifies as a mystery horse, shipping cross country for a Grade 3 at Keeneland after a fading 7 length loss in his debut race last month at Santa Anita. The jockey makes the trip too, and is likely feeling good about the sharp early speed he showed in that race and another strong gate work last week at 6f. It is a lot to ask, but the horse does have a good pedigree for this stretch out, and there are plenty of Doug O'Neill trainer angles to like here. 

APRIL 10

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
5,6 with 6,1 with 12,3,2,1,11,4 with 1,2,3 with 8,3
$72 total     Lost

$50 to Win on #5 CHADO (8-1 ML)     Lost, 3rd
I'm a sucker for cheap speed horses and am willing to take a longshot with a chance to wire a field of horses from bigger barns. A small seven horse field here so I hope the jock takes the opportunity to leverage a pace advantage and hustle out this horse to the front.  

​Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
3,4,2 with 12,1,11,9 with 4,7,5 with 2,4 with 5
$36 total     Lost

​​Race 8
$100 to Win on #4 CUT TO THE CHASE (5-2 ML)     CASHED FOR $301.00
She was a beaten odds-on favorite on the poly at Turfway last out, but I can imagine that the horse will run something closer to form of the dominating victory she had here last meet to break her maiden.  She has been working nicely here at Keeneland in the mornings and Wesley Ward has her ready to rip.

APRIL 9

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
4,5 with 2,11 with 8,9,7 with 3,1,8,9 with 2,3,4,5
$96 total     CASHED FOR $15.06

​Race 3
$100 to Win on #8 SWEET SCORECARD (5-2 ML)     CASHED FOR $349.00
This horse is slipping in just under the condition limits of this starter allowance, which makes him a more capable, "classier" horse. He is a needs-the-lead type and even though there are other speedy ones in here, I think he will clear the field early and never relinquish the lead. Gaffalione taking the mount for a trainer he hasn't partnered with is a strong vote of confidence for the likely favorite here.

​Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
2,3,4,5 with 4,2,10 with 6,3,5 with 6,7,2,5 with 1,9,12,4
$288 total     CASHED FOR $1,430.52

​Race 8
$50 to Win on #4 FOND FAREWELL (10-1 ML)     SCRATCHED
Trainer Will Walden picks his spots well here, and Vincent Cheminaud pulls the occassional Keeneland win when he gets a decent horse. The horse won as the favorite at Churchill in his maiden race last summer and has shown consistent closing ability which delivered a win on a poly sprint at TP last month. A turf mile seems like a good idea here for the running style, and this is a wide open race with a likely honest turf pace.

APRIL 8

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
6 with 3,5,7,11 with 2,1,6 with 10,9,6 with 1,7,2
$54 total     CASHED FOR $10.41

​Race 4
$0.50 Pick 5
10,9,6 with 1,7,2 with 6,4,9 with 7,5,4,1 with 8,1
$108 total     CASHED FOR $529.89 

​Race 5
$50 to Win on #1 ANDTHEWINNERIS (8-1 ML)     Lost, 4th
A small field helps the chances of this longshot who will break from the 1 post and likely be in the back of the pack early.  That running style favors a jockey like Leparoux, who will certainly save ground and then find his best run late. This is the right class level, surface, and distance for this Catalano runner. 

​Race 8
$100 to Win on #8 SHARONS BEACH (2-1 ML)     Lost, 2nd
This is a Santa Anita shipper that gets a jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz, so it must be well intentioned by the trainer. The gelding has been facing tougher and competing well in the last three starts at a fast pace. This one should be able to feast a lot at this starter allowance level.

APRIL 4

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
2,1 with 4,8,5 with 5,3 with 7,10,2 with 9,10,5,7
$72 total      Lost

​Race 7
$0.50 Pick 5
7,4,2 with 9,6,2,7,1 with 8,2,1,3,6 with 2,8 with 9,6,3     CASHED FOR $1,411.65
$225 total

$100 to Win on #7 SAUDI CROWN (8-5 ML)     CASHED FOR $201.00
This veteran horse has proven to be a comfortable favorite around this grade 3/stakes level competition. His intention is always to win by getting to the front early, and his top speed figures here for an accomplished trainer/jockey combo in Cox/Prat suggest a rinse and repeat winning effort. He shortens to 7 furlongs here for the first time, but I think he can outbreak the less classy #5 and cruise around the track.

​Race 11
$50 to Win on #9 OTTINHO (20-1 ML)     Lost, 2nd
Mr K and Mr B have both chosen this longshot of the day to upset in the featured Bluegrass Stakes and stamp a ticket to the Kentucky Derby. It is rare to get 20-1 on a Chad Brown colt (and maybe we don't with that heavy KP money lol). The colt showed talent and grit as a 2 year-old, but threw a dull effort in the last stake race, a well beaten 3rd. The key to the intrigue here is the blinkers on move by Chad, an equipment change he does with great success: 30% winning with a positive ROI for one of the most overbet trainers that overall delivers a losing 0.8 ROI.  #6 is the deserving favorite, but could get caught in a pace meltdown that could benefit longshots like this #9 and #3 Great White.

APRIL 3

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
5,3,8 with 1,8,11 with 5,2,9 with 11,10,5,3,12 with 3,1,6 
$202.50 total     Lost

​Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
8,7,9 with 3,6,1,7 with 2,3,4,7,6 with  3,4 with 3,11,5
$180 total     Lost

​​Race 7
$100 to Win on #3 SNEAKY GOOD (9-5 ML)     Lost, 2nd
This is top trainer Brad Cox's only entry today, but a Grade 2 is a good reason to come to work. The filly stayed active racing down south  during the winter, and now returns to the track where she broke her maiden at first attempt. Cox and jockey Prat are a positive ROI pairing, and this one seems the most likely winner of the day just sitting off of the longshot pace setter, #6.  

Race 10
$50 to Win on #3 RAVENOUS (10-1 ML)     Lost, 8th
There is some good buzz with this longshot that is an underwhelming pedigree colt that has been attracting money from bettors and keeps getting top jocks to take the mount -- Prat today. In both races so far he has shown some good closing ability, and I project we might get a hot pace here with a big field and a lot of inexperienced horses that might not like traffic or rating. A beaten Turfway favorite, yes, but I like the race shape here for this one.
​
​
2025 Fall Meet Totals
​Wagered: $7,427.50
Cashed: $8,692.36
Net Profit: +$1,264.86
​​ROI:  +17%

OCTOBER 25

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
​10,12 with 9,6,1,5,3 with 6 with 5,11,12,7 with 11,13,9,10
Total: $80     Lost

​Race 5
$50 to Win on #7 OPERATION TORCH (8-1 ML) SCRATCHED
In his last race, the pace was a little bit too hot for him on the lead, but still managed a 3rd place finish off of a 1 year layoff. Back today at a similar level with some nice workouts under his belt. There is other speed in here, so Johnny V will have to decide whether to gun it again or stalk. Either way, the horse can win at nice odds.

​Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
1 with 3,4,1,5,6 with 2,4,12,5,11 with 11,4,5,6,3,9 with 3,11,12,5,9,1,4
Total: $525     Lost

​Race 9
$100 to Win on #11 HIT SHOW (6-1 ML)     Winner!     CASHED FOR $457.00
​This Chad Brown runner gets some class relief, dropping down to Grade 3. He won here last October and should do it again today.

OCTOBER 24

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
1 with 15,4,1,11,12 with 7 with 8,1,12,7,11,3 with 11,6,3
Total: $45     Lost

​Race 5
$50 to Win on #9 ALL ABOUT YOU (10-1 ML)     SCRATCHED
Leparoux has been a cold jockey of late, but McPeek gives him the leg up today on a good longshot spot. The dirt to turf angle gives some upside here and the barn crowd might be all over this one, so I hope 10-1 holds.

​Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
1,6,2 with 9,3,12,5,10 with 8,5,7,4 with 2,9,6 with 1,3,10
Total: $270     Lost

​Race 9
$100 to Win on #2 PLAY WITH FIRE (2-1 ML)     Lost, 8th
No question that this one will be poised for a big stretch run into a fast pace here. The final quarter speed for this one is impressive and all he needs in a good trip, which Prat is superb at delivering.  Chad Brown picked a great spot for this filly.

OCTOBER 23

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
7 with 1,7 with 6,3 with 2,5,6,9 with 8,9,13,2,10
Total: $40     Winner!     CASHED FOR $192.96

​Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
8,9,13,2,10 with 3,8,4 with 9,7,6 with 4 with 4,1,6,2,8
Total: $112.50     Winner!     CASHED FOR $369.01

$50 to Win on #8 PASEO (20-1 ML)     Lost, 4th
This young filly debuted at Kentucky Downs and while she finished 7th in a pack, she was only a 3 1/2 length loser and made up 10 lengths to get there. That suggests that she might have some late run in her and today that will be useful in a race likely to have a quick pace at a distance that stretches out to two turns. Luan Machado doesn't get the highest profile horses and has still won a couple of races here recently. The 46.8 4 furlong work last week suggests the horse is sharp.

​Race 6
$100 to Win on #3 ANTIETAM (2-1 ML)     Lost, 4th
Pletcher ditches the unsuccessful turf attempts and returns to the dirt today with this maiden. The class drop to maiden claiming is also further relief needed. Any return to the speed figures he put up in his 2yo season will be enough to get the job done, but I expect the trainer will have him even better.

OCTOBER 22

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
1,5 with 7,2,3 with 4,1,8 with 5,1,6,2,3,8 with 7,8,10
Total: $162     Lost


​Race 4
$0.50 Pick 5
5,1,6,2,3,8 with 7,8,10 with 3,8 with 8,1,11 with 3,5,12,11,1
Total: $270     Lost

​Race 6
$50 to Win on #3 HAILSTORM (8-1 ML)     Lost, 5th
The colt hasn't lived up to his Gun Runner, out of a Sky Mesa, mare breeding yet, but showed new vigor in his last race after switching barns to Dave Jacobson. Today he gets the jockey upgrade to Tyler Gaffialione. If that last race represents his new form and speed rating, he will compete well today at this level. If the track is fair today and the pace is honest, this one will be kicking fastest down the stretch.  

​Race 8
$100 to Win on #3 EL PRESTIGIO (4-1 ML)     Winner! CASHED FOR $481.00
I like the chances for a wire to wire score here. The colt has been off since January, but when healthy, can blaze the early fractions faster than these others. Irad Ortiz gets the assignment today for Asmussen. 

OCTOBER 19

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
4,8,5 with 6,1,11,5 with 3,9,7,8 with 2,4,13,14,10,1 with 4,12
Total: $288     Lost
​
​Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
4,12,7 with 6,9,4,13,12 with 9,4 with 7,6,8,2 with 7,5,2,12,9
Total: $300     Lost

$100 to Win on #4 MY NOBLE KNIGHT (3-1 ML)     Lost, 2nd
His last race was kind of a dud but he still fought to hang on to third. Prior to that this gelding has been racing at speed figures that are superior to this field. 

​Race 8
$50 to Win on #7 CUPIDS CRUSH (20-1 ML)     Last, Lost
This mare steps up to try a graded stakes today after an easy win in a state restricted race at Canterbury. She should be ready to run today and with a Keeneland win under her belt late Fall, expect a sharp effort on track here today.

OCTOBER 18

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
5,6 with 4,11,3,1 with 12,7,4 with 6,4,9 with 1,9,7
Total: $108     Lost

$100 to Win on #8 CAPE TRAFALGAR (10-1 ML)     SCRATCHED
This horse has been in the money in all 5 Keeneland starts lifetime, including a win last Spring at this same class level. The new barn hasn't won with him yet and he has only raced once since the April claim, but if he is healthy, this distance and level fit him perfectly. You will probably know by the time they enter the turn. 

​Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
5,3 with 8,4,1 with 8,3,1 with 1,10,14,8,9,11 with 1,12,8,9,7
Total: $270     4 out of 5      CASHED FOR $229.32

​Race 9
$100 to Win on #1 DELIGHTFUL CLAIRE (10-1 ML)     Lost, 5th
This looks like a race where you will need to be on or near the pace, and I expect Rosario to hustle this one out quickly from the 1 hole. She is lightly raced, and I like the confidence the trainer has in swinging for this Grade 2.

OCTOBER 17

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
8,1,5 with 2,7,1 with 7,9 with 4,2,7 with 5,1,3,10
Total: $108     Lost

​Race 3
$100 to Win on #7 PLAZA CUE (7-5 ML)     Lost, 2nd
I think McPeek has the top two contenders in here, so I am giving some extra weight to Irad Ortiz sticking with this hard luck maiden. The filly has shown interest in early speed, which is always good to see with maidens. The question marks might be seconditis concerns, but it is stoo soon to jump to that conclusion. That actualy will make the win odds value better than the place odds.

​Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
2,5 with 11,1,7 with 1 with 5,1,3,7,9,6 with 1,10
Total: $36     Lost

​Race 9
$50 to Win on #5 MONSIEUR CANDY  (12-1 ML)     Lost, 3rd
These odds are pretty long for a horse that has been in the money in 7 of 9 ifetime starts. He did break his maiden at a Keeneland turf sprint, and has good turf sprint bloodlines. Corey Lanerie isn't at the top of the standings like before, but I think he might find some Keeneland magic with this one.

OCTOBER 16

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
3,8 with 7,12,4 with 7,11,9,6 with 2,11,4,1 with 3,2,5,11,12
Total: $240     Lost

​Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
3,2,5,11,12 with 8,4,10 with 7,2,5,4,12,11 with 9,11,3 with 10,9
Total: $270     4 of 5     CASHED FOR $50.40

​Race 7
$50 to Win on #7 MACKMAN (8-1 ML)     Winner!     CASHED FOR $476.00
The horse has been away on an extended layoff since February after a couple of poor showings at Oaklawn. Returning first off of the layoff at Keeneland is a confident signal, and the horse did have a nice 2nd here last Fall. If the horse can simply return to that form, he will win this race, and the small barn trainer is known for winning at a higher rate at the Keeneland meet for an healthy ROI. 

​Race 8
$100 to Win on #9 PROCTOR STREET (5-2 ML)     Winner!     CASHED FOR $213.00
​The pace setup looks favorable here for the filly's proven late kick given several runners that need to be on the lead or at least close to the pace. Keeneland's turf course should play fair, for this beaten Saratoga Stakes favorite, who Gaffalione will ride patiently and confidently for the stretch run.

OCTOBER 15

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
5,1,3 with 4 with 1,2 with 5,7 with 11,3,1,12,7,6
Total: $36     4 of 5     CASHED FOR $45.18

​Race 4
$0.50 Pick 5
5,7 with 11,3,1,12,7,6 with 5 with 1,7,12,6,10 with 7,5,14,11,2
Total: $150     4 of 5     CASHED FOR $42.34
​
Race 7
$100 to Win on #1 TAM TAM (7-2 ML)     Lost, 2nd
This 2yo filly was a well respected favorite on debut at Saratoga, showed quick front running speed, and then faded in the stretch to 3rd.  Blinkers come off today, which might help her competitiveness in the stretch. Lots of first-time starters in here, so somebody new could pop, but I expect her to get a wire-to-wire win from the ground saving #1 post.

Race 8
$50 to Win on #7 LOVELY EMMA (12-1 ML)     Lost, 5th
Another pace play here on the turf, and if she gets the early lead she will be tough to catch (especially if the AE #`13 scratches). Mornings works have been very sharp, so all signs point to this filly being ready to run.

OCTOBER 12

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
4,7,6,5,3 with 5,4,2,10,9,1,7 with 3,4 with 6,8 with 3,8,12
Total: $210     Lost

​Race 5
$0.50 Pick 5
3,8,12 with 6,5,2 with 5,7 with 6,9,12 with 5,12,7,1,4
Total: $135     Lost

​Race 7
$100 to Win on #9 FUTURE IS NOW (7-5 ML)     SCRATCHED
​A good showing today will make her a million dollar mare, and she returns to defend her Franklin Stakes win from last year. She is running her best speed figures recently and she wins often, usually at slim margins, which speaks to her grit. This turf sprint specialist will be tough to beat today.

​Race 8
$50 to Win on #6 LIGHTNING STRUCK (8-1 ML)     Lost, 4th
The trainer takes a second straight class drop, trying to find the right level and I think this is it. The drop can return him to form, which would make him very competitive. He runs best stalking the pace, so if he is within a couple of lengths going into the first turn, I will feel confident. The trainer lost him to a claim in the Spring but claimed him back, which I like to see. 

OCTOBER 11

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
5,8,6,2 with 1,8,5 with 7,5 with 8,4,2 with 10,6,5
Total: $108     Lost

​Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
8 with 3,6,9 with 2,1,9,3 with 7,9,2,5 with 9,5,1,3
Total: $96     Lost

$100 to Win on #6 HILLERITO (9-5 ML)     Lost, 2nd
This mare is 5 for 6 lifetime in an abbreviated career, but she has always grabbed the lead from the get go, and Gaffalione knows how to hustle her up there. With a step up in class here and an extra 1/2 furlong, it might be tougher than prior starts at lower level races, but speed is speed and it would take a bad trip or a track bias against speed to deny her another win.

​Race 9
$50 to Win on #7 DESTINO D'ORO (8-1 ML)     Lost
The Grade 1 QE2 Cup is packed with Keeneland's best trainers, jockeys, and turf runners that are a mix of Kentucky locals, plus East and West Coast shippers that are looking to this race as their Breeders Cup. The best European runners are not here, so this will probably come down to who gets the best trip, and probably who closes best. At today's distance, this filly has a good track record of closing well in the stretch and the move to Irad Ortiz only helps that confidence. 

OCTOBER 10

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
6 with 2,1,5 with 6,12,1,5 with 4,6,9,2 with 3,7
Total: $48     Lost

$100 to Win on #6 TURN UP THE TREES (9-5 ML)     Lost, 5th
This beaten favorite was bumped at the start last out but with a cleaner trip should prove to be the better horse among those same top contenders again here. His consistent early speed works well here in the sprint and the trainer/jockey have combined for a 33% win rate.

​Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
12,4,1,8,11 with 4,11,2,9 with 4,11,8,2 with 8,4,5 with 10,4
Total: $240     Lost

​Race 8
$50 to Win on #4 ALGHERO (10-1 ML)     Lost, 3rd
Both of the tipsheet's longshot bets of the day are here, which highlights how wide open this race looks. This pick is the rare Chad Brown longshot. His colt did nothing at long odds in his debut race at Saratoga, but importantly gets the blinkers on today for his second try. That is a high ROI angle for Chad Brown, and the horse has a pedigree worth believing in at 10-1 odds.


OCTOBER 9

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
7,8 with 4,7,9 with 6 with 2,7,10,8 with 7,5,8
Total: $36     Lost

Race 3 
$100 to Win on #6 MOTOWN DYNAMIC (7-5 ML)     Winner!     CASHED FOR $294.00
This filly should be a shorter price, but might not because of a bias against shippers from second tier tracks like Prairie Meadows. But Jose Ortiz knows he has jumped on the speed of the race here. Expect an easy wire to wire win given a clear pace figure advantage.

​Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
6,2,5,8 with 4,1,7 with 7,5,8,3 with 10,12,11,7 with 8,7
​Total: $192

Race 8
$50 to Win on #7 PARTIR (12-1 ML)     Lost, 4th
This is a well bred French horse that has been training and racing in the US this year for Riley Mott, who keeps a good ROI at Keeneland. The filly breaks slowly, but the pace should be quick allowing her to kick well late.

OCTOBER 8

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
2,3,6 with 7,1 with 3 with 12,7 with 7,1
Total: $12     Lost

​Race 3
$100 to Win on #3 LAUGHNOWCRYLATER (7-5 ML)     Lost, 2nd
Starter allowances often create a class mismatch due to the qualifying conditions, and of the claiming races that made the runners in this field eligible, this horse's November 2024 $50k claimer at Churchill was the highest class. Jose Ortiz returns to try this again, and we a better break and a cleaner trip, this one will outclass these journeyman horses. 

​Race 4
$0.50 Pick 5
12,7 with 7,1 with 3,4,7 with 1,3 with 7,9,8
Total: $36     Winner! CASHED FOR $5,157.61

​Race 7
$50 to Win on #1 CERVARO DELLA SALA (20-1 ML)     Winner! CASHED FOR $387.50
This horse is one for one lifetime at Keeneland, and will likely get an off track again. Anna Meah is a smaller barn trainer, but carries a positive ROI with her runners, especially in allowance races. The pace ratings are good here, so a clean trip from the rail could spring an easy upset at long odds.

OCTOBER 5

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
3,1 with 14,10,4,8,6 with 7 with 9,5,12,11 with 4,3,7,8
Total: $80     Lost

Race 3
$100 to Win on #7 WAVES OF MISCHIEF (9-5 ML)     Lost, 7th
Cease your doubts about this one's ability to handle the dirt. I like that the trainer has resisted the temptation to try the QE2 again this fall and is trying something different to break a drought including shortening to 7 furlongs and blinkers on. Gaffalione should sail away from them and mutilate this weaker field.

​Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
12,9,11 with 7,8,11 with 6,2,5,9 with 5,2 with 6,3,4,9,2
Total: $180     Lost

$50 to Win on #12 RICH CITY GIRL (8-1 ML)     Lost, 9th
This old man's money will rely on this Larry Rivelli sprinter who stands to show some blazing speed from the outside post. Although she showed up as the pace setter for the Grade 1, 1 1/16 mile Alcibiades here last fall, this time she won't have to go too far -- just 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf. If she catches a good break, she will be so far gone. Say money, money!

OCTOBER 4

​Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
1,4 with 2,6,9,11,3 with 6,7 with 4,3,12,10 with 7,3,6
Total: $120     CASHED FOR $33.75

$100 to Win on #1 QUICK TO CHARM (6-5 ML)     Lost, 2nd
This filly has been busy of late in her 3yo campaign and should be much sharper than the others in this bunch. Irad agrees and takes the mount for Mark Casse. I just don't think she cares much for Churchill's surface, and her best here wins easy.

​Race 4
$50 to Win on #4 MONTEREY BAY (8-1 ML)     Lost, 5th
Wes Ward took her to Woodbine this summer where he broke his maiden, and appears poised to make a successful return to the Lexington  home base. Some good works back home and stretches out to two turns for the first time. I expect we will see a good closing kick today in the stretch.

​Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
1,4,7,3 with 5,3,7 with 10,5,3 with 2,6 with 3,7,9,8,4
Total: $180     Lost

OCTOBER 3

Race 1
$0.50 Pick 5
4 with 9,8,1 with 1,12,2,4 with 4,1,5,9 with 6,10,7
Total: $72     CASHED FOR $262.29

Race 4
$100 to Win on #4 SPA PROSPECTOR (6-1 ML)     Lost, 4th
Trainer Tom Amoss looks to do better this October than he did in April, and he should get an early win on opening day here at a good price. He and Jose Ortiz win at a 40% plus clip when they team up. The filly gets a softer spot today after a 3rd place finish at Saratoga in a Grade 3. 

Race 6
$0.50 Pick 5
11,2,10 with 5,4 with 4,12,6,11 with 3,2 with 10,7,3
Total: $72     Lost

Race 8
$50 to Win on #4 AGGRESSIVE LIME (8-1 ML)     Lost, 6th
She won on debut at Kentucky Downs impressively as the favorite, and Cox confidently steps her right up to Grade 2 company today. Gaffalione stays with Mr K's longshot pick, Loveliest, but this filly picks up Flavien Prat, so no concerns there.

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