2023 Spring Meet Totals Wagered: $6,722.00 Cashed: $3,064.89 Net Profit: -$3,657.11 ROI: -54%
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2,3,4,7 with 2,4,5,7,10,16 with 1,4,7 with 1,3,7 with 2,3 Total: $216 (before scratches)
Race 2 $50 to Win on #7 HOLLYWOOD BOULEVARD (15-1 ML) This filly is the only one in the race with experience -- all others are many their debut today. Often, that experience helps and in this case the first effort was a slow break at the start and an uninterested finish. But it is worth noting that the workouts have been regular and trainer Catalano recognizes her pedigree is more turf than dirt. Plus, turf is a tough place to start for the other first timers, who are dealing with other horses for the first time.
Race 5 $500 to Win on #3 WE THE PEOPLE (4-5 ML) I've been burned enough times by the Irad Ortiz chalk this meet, and it is only fitting that I go for it again with my final best bet of the meet. Coming in off of a long layoff? Check, off since September. Front runner with other early speed challenge? Check, his brother's horse shows better early pace figures. Trainer pattern? Check, the patient Pletcher wins at only 12% first time out when he gets a horse from another trainer. OK, there are the three reasons he will lose. Why am I betting him then? #1 class - only graded stakes winner in the field and 4th in last year's Belmont stakes, #2 speed figure dominance, and #3 Irad owes me big!
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 2,8,16 with 3,10 with 4,5 with 1,4 with 3,4,9,11 Total: $48 (before scratches)
Race 10 $200 to Win on #11 WICO (7-2 ML) $50 Exacta Box 3-11 This is my special meet closing final play. Chad Brown's horse (#3) is a logical favorite, but this colt took a big step forward with that maiden win last out at Turfway, and it is quite possible that he is very well suited to be a turf route horse with good early speed, which plays well at Keeneland.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 3,8 with 1,2,7,10 with 2,3,4,7 with 2 with 4,7,9 Total: $48 CASHED FOR $84.41
$200 to Win on #8 MANCHESTER (8-5 ML) CASHED FOR $656.00 There is a speed figure advantage here that is masked by this maiden's weakening stretch finishes. A cut back to sprint from route should bring a better closing kick for this one. Unless Ward's first time starter, #3, runs much better than expected, Manchester seems to be the class of this field.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 4,7,9 with 1,3,6 with 3,4,7 with 1,2,3,4 with 1,2,12 Total: $162 Lost
Race 7 $50 to Win on #12 MO SHIRO (15-1 ML) SCRATCHED The connections here are slumping (like Mr B), so the price should be right for this filly who finally broke her maiden last out at Fair Grounds. She showed controlling speed in that race and finished "in hand". She seems well bred for the turf, and her fastest races have been on turf or a sloppy track.
APRIL 26 Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 2,5 with 11,12,16 with 3,6 with 6,7,9 with 1,2,4,7,11 Total: $90 CASHED FOR $81.50
Race 2 $50 to Win on #11 LIQUID ADDICTION (8-1 ML) Lost, 4th This gelding was a beaten favorite in his debut at Turfway, and now switches to the turf sprint course where the breeding looks solid. Jockey Irad Ortiz picks up the mount and he actually has a rare positive ROI on these Keeneland turf sprints with 6 wins in 15 starts. Has the early foot to be in contention and this looks like the right price in a competitive MSW field.
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 6,7,9 with 1,2,4,7,11 with 4,7,9 with 3,5,6 with 4,7 Total: $135 CASHED FOR $31.28
Race 6 $200 to Win on $9 BOUND FOR NOWHERE (2-5 ML) Lost, 2nd Today this horse races as a 9 year old for the first time, and it is noteworthy that the track record is a winning one for him in these seasonal debuts, which always are a cut below the higher graded stakes targets Ward pursues in the summer with this one. He is 3 for 6 lifetime at Keeneland and has only been out of the money once. Should be a very professional win.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 5 (1,2,3) with 8,11 (5,12) with 3,5 (8) with 2,3 (4,6) with 5,11,12 (1,7,8) All A ticket $12 ($270 with B's) CASHED FOR $24.81
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 5,11,12 (1,7,8) with 1 (3,5) with 6 (3,5,7) with 2,5 with 2,6,12 (4,13) All A ticket $9 ($204 with B's) Lost
$50 to Win on #11 PIONEER'S EDGE (10-1 ML) Lost, 5th This filly gets the services of a top jockey today in Flavien Prat and Woodbine's all weather surface runners usually do well on the Keeneland turf. She has been wintering in Florida, preparing for today's four year old debut with a consistent strong of 5 furlong turf works. This is a consistent runner that just needs to find the right level of competition and I think this wide open race is the right spot for her to shine.
Race 7 $200 to Win on #6 LIMITED LIABILITY (2-1 ML) CASHED FOR $414.00 I ran a query to find all of the favorites with Irad Ortiz on board. Bet what you want here, but I'm going to keep Martingaling this until I get my money back. Enough is enough Irad!
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,6 (4) with 3,4 with 3,5,6,9,10 (1,7) with 4,7 (1,2) with 3,8 All A ticket $40 ($160 with B's) Lost
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 1,11 (6,7) with 7 (4) with 3,8,9 (1,2) with 2,4 (7) with 6,8,11 (2,3) All A ticket $18 ($191 with B's) Lost
Race 7 $200 to Win on #7 SOCIALLY SELECTIVE (1-1 ML) Lost, 2nd It seems like Irad Ortiz has run second every time Mr B picks him as his lock, yet here we go again... And what's not to like: won her debut at Saratoga last summer, ran a nice 2nd in her 3 year old debut in an Oaklawn Stakes, and now brings a top speed figure to this Keeneland allowance in what should be an even sharper effort second off of the layoff.
Race 10 $50 to Win on #11 NOBODY LISTENS (8-1 ML) Lost, 4th I hope nobody has been listening to these spot plays this meet because the record has been dismal. But it never is too late to turn it around -- this is horse racing after all -- and this horse likes to win -- a 50% career winning percentage (10 for 20), which is rare. Obviously such a record would not have been compiled at Keeneland, but speed is speed, and this gelding is intriguing in this turf sprint. He needs the lead, but if nobody goes with him, you should get a good longshot winner to close the day.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 6 with 1,3,4,6 with 3 with 1,7 with 1,4,7,12,13 Total: $20 Lost
$50 to Win on #2 CURRENT (20-1 ML) SCRATCHED It is not too often that Mr B and Mr K both put a 20-1 shot as their top pick. I think what the morning line make might be missing is how meaningful the class drop is here (only horse that hasn't been in a true claiming race over the past year) and also how successful the trainer is on class drops (34% winner).
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 1,3,4,5 with 6,8 with 1,2,4 with 2,4 with 2,4,9 Total: $72 Lost
Race 8 $200 to Win on #2 FAST AS FLIGHT (2-1 ML) Lost, 2nd Trainer Bryan Lynch has been cold at Keeneland, with only 2 wins in the last 26 starts. But he has a winning ROI with his horses coming off of a short layoff like this 6 week freshening and he seems well intended for this spot with Irad up.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1,3 with 4,8,16 with 1,2,3,7,8 with 4,7,9 with 9,11,15 All A ticket $135 Lost
$200 to Win on #1 DIALHERUP (1-1 ML) Lost, 2nd Her first two starts carry superior speed ratings versus the rest of this small field and she was very competitive against what was likely tougher competition at Fair Grounds. This should be graduation day.
Race 3 $50 to Win on #1 NOW THAT ICAN ROCK (10-1 ML) Lost, 3rd This colt improved a lot in his second start at Turfway and if we see another step forward today, it would be good enough to break the maiden. The early speed shown and pace held rank higher than the rest of the field here, and if he can get a good jump, the inside post will be to his advantage. Running 2nd in a Turfway MSW at 94-1 and now 10-1 in a Keeneland MSW? I expect odds way longer than 10-1.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 9,11,15 with 4 (1,8) with 1,2,5 with 1,6,7 with 5,6,7,11 (8,9) All A ticket $54 ($243 with B's) Lost
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 3 (6,11) with 1,5 (6) with 5,10,13 (1,3) with 4,6 (7,8) with 2 (4,7) All A ticket $6 ($128 with B's) Lost
Race 3 $50 to Win on #5 CARMEL SUNRISE (30-1 ML) Lost, 9th This longshot filly has shown some improvement in her two previous starts in the Eric Reed barn. This is a bad crop of maiden claimers, so I'm latching on to the positives here of strong pace figures and the pick up mount for Florent Geroux.
Race 4 $0.50 Pick 5 4,6 (7,8) with 2 (4,7) with 1 (3,10) with 2 (1,3) with 2,9 (8) All A ticket $2 ($60 with B's) Lost
Race 7 $200 to Win on #7 FILM STAR (5-2 ML) CASHED FOR $428.00 This has been a disappointing string of races for this Brad Cox runner who broke his maiden with a 9 length romp last summer at Ellis Park. After a couple of months off since shipping from Oaklawn, he seems poised to show a winning race if he races with the same speed and pace he has shown previously.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 1 (3,5,7) with 5,7 (1) with 7,13 with 3,5 with 2 (4,8) All A ticket $4 ($60 with B's) Lost
$200 to Win on #1 AMERICAN PURE (8-5 ML) CASHED FOR $502.00 I encouraged that this Oaklawn shipper gets Joel Rosario to jump on board in a first race claimer. The colt just missed by a nose last fall in his only other Keeneland try, and a sharp workout last week here indicates that he likes the track. From the #1 post, look for Joel to try to put him on the lead in a race without much early speed and keep him there.
Race 5 2 (4,8) with 2,7,9,10 (3,8) with 5,12 (4,6) with 4,7 (2) with 2 (1,4) All A ticket $8 ($162 with B's) CASHED FOR $40.76
Race 9 $50 to Win on #2 FABRICATE (10-1 ML) Lost, 7th Irad Ortiz grabs the mount for this Mahoning Valley trained mare off of a 7 month layoff. Hmm. This looks like a smart claim for an unheralded trainer and if the mare can get back to her form from 12 months ago, she will pop this field at a price. After a nice 6 furlong gate work, expect her to run well off of the layoff today.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 3,7 with 4 (6,10) with 5,6,8 (11,12) with 4,5 (7,8) with 6,9 All A ticket $12 ($104 with B's) Lost
Race 5 $50 to Win on #6 BABY BILLY (10-1 ML) Lost, 4th Lots of changes here to give hope to the idea that today's outcome might be different than the last race: return to Lasix, blinkers off, class drop, favorable jockey change, return to winning surface and distance. Let's get back-to-back longshot of the day winners!
Race 7 $0.50 Pick 5 1,4 (7) with 2,11,12 (3,10) with 11 with 2 (5) with 4 (2,3) All A ticket $3 ($33 with B's) Lost
Race 9 $200 to Win on #11 ARABIAN LION (7-2 ML) Lost, 2nd I touted this horse last meet and he just couldn't get past the leader in the stretch. Baffert ships him back here for the Grade 3 try after a couple of sharp works at Santa Anita. There is a lot of early speed in the race, so the setup isn't great for the usual gun for the lead approach from the outside post, but I think that fear will bring some value in the odds and keep the horse above even money. Ortiz can be tactical with the speed I think and ride with confidence that he has the sharpest horse.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 5,8 (6) with 1,3,6,9 (8,12) with 1,7 with 4,9 (2,6) with 3 (1,8) All A ticket $16 ($164 with B's) Lost
Race 2 $50 to Win on #6 INSOLITO (15-1 ML) CASHED FOR $344.50 This 4yo maiden debuted in the Brad Cox barn and was actually the favorite in his first two career races. He flashed that early speed but wasn't able to sustain that pace and that has remained his problem as a 0-9 maiden. So why might try #10 be the lucky one? Well those pace figures are the best among this bunch, so expect him to grab the lead again, but maybe get some easier fractions up front and conserve more energy if the jockey can control him. Also, this is maiden claiming, not maiden special weight, so he is unlikely to face another horse that explodes with potential.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 1,5 with 2,6,7 (1,4) with 2,9 with 7 (2,3) with 8,10 (1,6) All A ticket $12 ($104 with B's) Lost
Race 9 $500 to Win on #7 MODERN GAMES (3-5 ML) Lost, 2nd This is the infamous horse that was scratched at the gate in the 2021 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf but then reinstated -- although removed from the betting pools -- and then went on to win the race. Bettors were able to win money off of him in last year's Breeders Cup Mile, which he won with a big rally and he has been off since then. While betting BC horses off of the 5 month layoff has its risks, the connections here don't play the "needs a race" game, and I expect a Grade 1 effort in the same way he returned from the 2021 BC win. There are some decent horses in here, but nothing that is Breeders Cup caliber.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 7,10 with 9,12 (1,4) with 9 (2,7) with 3,7 with 1 All A ticket $2 ($24 with B's) Lost
Race 3 $50 to Win on #9 AZAMANA EMPIRE (10-1 ML) Lost, 10th These are not the connections that you will see among the meet leaders, but the pace figures suggest a very competitive cruising speed for this maiden and the stretchout to two turns should help her put it all together today.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 1 with 3 (4,11) with 10 (11) with 1,7 with 4,6,7 (2,10) All A ticket $3 ($26 with B's) Lost $200 to Win on #3 SIDEKICK (2-1 ML) SCRATCHED After getting beat twice as a favorite to end the 3 yo campaign, the horse returns off a a long layoff, now in the barn of Steve Asmussen. This seems like one of those horses that especially prepped for this spot to return to the races as a 4 yo.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 6 (3,4) with 7,9 (12,13) with 3,4 with 4,10 (1,6) with 11 (3,8) All A ticket $4 ($80 with B's) Lost
$50 to Win on #6 DOROTA (15-1 ML) Lost, 7th The claiming horses are all very well matched with similar records and not much room for development as older fillies and mares. So the key is finding a) the horses that are fresh & sharp and b) odds that don't respect how even these runners are. Dorota fits both categories well. After a three race winning streak last summer, she went off form in the fall and has been off since November. Fresh or broken? Well she has had good consistent 5 furlong works in March, which suggests she will be ready to run fast and handle 7 furlongs. And we should get a decent price because Fairmount Park is a minor circuit track and the connections are not familiar. They would not have shipped here if they weren't ready to run.
Race 4 4,10 (1,6) with 11 (3,8) with 6 (9) with 2 (8,11) with 1 (3,7) All A ticket $1 ($34 with B's) Lost
Race 6 $200 to Win on #6 MONEY RUN (7-5 ML) Lost, Last No value play here but if you need to cash a ticket, this is your best bet. Asmussen at low odds is a negative ROI proposition over time, but this particular horse looks like the controlling speed in a weak field of starter allowance horses. There is a huge condition advantage here too as this colt is the only horse in the field to have won a race other than a maiden race.
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 10 (1,3,4,7) with 5,6 (1,10) with 2,12 (4,5,8) with 6,8 (1,2,3,5) with 2 (7,9) All A ticket $4 ($212 with B's) Lost
Race 2 $50 to Win on #6 WICKED AGAIN (8-1 ML) Lost, 4th The MSW debut was a very fast race, and this one just couldn't match the winner's early speed that day at FG. But if Asmussen has this one ready to run the same race today, the quick pace of this colt should get the lead early against this bunch.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 5 2 (7,9) with 4,7 with 2,3 with 2,5,9 (8,12) with 5 (3,8) All A ticket $6 ($74 with B's) Lost
$200 to Win on #2 NAKATOMI (2-1 ML) Lost, 4th This 4yo gelding is three for three lifetime at Keeneland and I expect it to be 4 for 4 after today. Tyler should keep him stalking and he should be ready for this graded stakes level in his second start of the year.
Race 7 $0.50 Pick 5 2,3 with 2,5,9 (8,12) with 5 (3,8) with 1,4 (6) with 1,3 All A ticket $6 ($82 with B's) CASHED FOR $3.63
Race 1 $0.50 Pick 5 6,14 (3,13) with 7,11 (8,15) with 3 (4,6) with 1,12 (4,5) with 6 (5,8) Lost All A ticket $4 ($108 with B's)
Race 3 $200 to Win on #3 COMPARATIVE (2-1 ML) CASHED FOR $454.00 It took a few tries for this filly to break her maiden, but it looks like she is finally starting to get it and her 6 1/2 length romp last out was impressive. A sharp 5 furlong workout since coming to Keeneland suggests that the improvement is continuing to happen in her 3 year old season and it looks like big upside is still to come. Brad Cox looks loaded as usual for a big meet.
Race 4 $50 to Win on #1 FANCY LIQUOR (10-1 ML) Lost, 2nd I know there are some flashier shippers in here, but I think the batch of locals shipping from Turfway can surprise here in what looks like the most wide open race on the card. Maker grabbed Irad Ortiz for this one, and that is a good sign as I expect him to hustle the horse into either the lead or something like a ground saving 3rd or 4th. Three 5 furlong works in the past month and three runs at Turfway this winner should have this horse stamina-ready for the stretch run.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 6,8 with 3,5 with 9 (12) with 2,5 (3) with 8 (7,10) Lost All A ticket $4 ($32 with B's)