2017 Fall Meet Totals Wagered: $10,615.00 Cashed: $11,487.10 Net Profit: +$872.10 ROI: +8%
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 5,6,8 with 4,3,9 with 4,3,2,7,9,1 with 9,12,7,1,11 ($135) CASHED FOR $94.45 Closing day! Ready to finish it out strong.
Race 3 $10 to Win & Place on #4 PETTY GAMBIT (5-1 ML) CASHED FOR $37.00 $5 Exacta Box 3-4-9 ($30) CASHED FOR $92.00 This $15k maiden claimer is the bottom of the barrel for Keeneland races (a disturbing trend), but it does give some of the also ran jockeys a chance to get some purse money. This Corey Orm mount definitely fits at this level from a speed rating perspective and I think the turnback in distance will help him manage the early fractions. Somebody has to win this race!
Race 4 $10 to Win & Place on #4 BAPA'S PRIDE (6-1 ML) Lost, 8th $1 Trifecta Key Box 4 with 1,2,3,7,9 ($60) Lost This looks like a well bred first time starter by Quality Road out of a mare that has one winner from one starter already. While the barn usually doesn't fire hard in debut races, this one has been working consistently well in the mornings at Keeneland and might be ready to pop. Watch the tote board for further conviction.
Race 6 $50 to Win & Place on #9 MISS GRACER (3-1 ML) Lost, 3rd $10 Exacta Box 2-4-9 ($60) Lost I expect that this Uncle Mo filly will be the controlling speed switching back to dirt here . Corey Lanerie seems to be getting hot as this meet closes out.
Race 7 $0.50 Pick 4 9,10,8,2,6 with 8,2,1,3 with 5,2,6 with 5,2 ($60) Lost Let's hit this and take our money west next week!
Race 8 $20 to Win & Place on #8 STAR QUEST (8-1 ML) Lost, 3rd $20 Exacta Box 2-8 Lost $20 Double 2,8 with 5 ($40) Lost Sometimes there is one race in the past performances that is kind of a diamond in the rough, but shows a horse's potential of how good she can be. For this filly, I am looking at her maiden win at Churchill back in May. She kept within a few lengths of a blistering pace and then closed well for an easy win at 14-1. Now she just drilled a bullet work at Keeneland last week and in her 2nd start off of a layoff she should be closer to the pace this time and hopefully make a strong stretch rally like she did in her maiden win.
Race 9 $50 to Win & Place #5 HONORABLE DUTY (9-5 ML) Lost, Last $20 Exacta 5 over 2,6 ($40) Lost This is a nice Grade 2 appetizer ahead of the Breeders Cup action next week, and I think the winner will be the more formful Honorable Duty here who showed a classy, easy win off of the layoff in the Grade 3 Lukas last out. Lanerie will likely choose to sit just behind Neolithic who will likely tire at this 1 1/8 distance.
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 4,6,2 with 5,7,4 with 1,3,6 with 9 ($13.50) Lost Let's get this party started right!
Race 4 $100 to Win on #1 THIRSTFORLIFE (8-5 ML) CASHED FOR $180.00 $20 Double 1-9 CASHED FOR $62.00 He had a nice win here last fall against better and comes back with in good form for Casse/Albarado.
Race 5 $100 to Win on #9 DADDY IS A LEGEND (9-5 ML) CASHED FOR $160.00 $20 Double 9 with 2,8 ($40) CASHED FOR $84.00 Despite a big field, things look pretty chalky here for a field of 2yr old fillies. With a couple of turf starts already against what was probably tougher competition in New York, this filly should benefit from that experience today and make her daddy proud (Scat Daddy).
Race 7 $20 to Win & Place on #3 UNMOORED (15-1 ML) Lost, 8th $5 Exacta Key Box 3 with 6,9 ($20) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 3 with 1,2,6,9 ($36) Lost $0.50 Pick 4 3,9,6,1,2,11 with 9,7 with 8,3,1,9,4 with 5,3,4 ($90) CASHED FOR $245.00 The colt ran a decent race at Kentucky Downs last month, and those shippers have been hot at Keeneland this meet. Three very strong works since that race indicate fitness and sharpness right now, and he could show a lot ability down the stretch.
Race 10 $5 Exacta Box 3-5 ($10) Lost
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 7,1 with 1,2,7,8,9,3,5,6 with 7,10,8 with 2B,7,11 ($72) Lost The 2nd leg here (race 3) has a group of seven jockeys who have 5 wins in 186 mounts in the last 14 days. That's pretty brutal, but the is almost like a maiden jockey race, so maybe they get their chance with most of the good national jockeys vacating Keeneland this week. Go Julie Go!
Race 6 $50 to Win & Place on #8 VICTORY LANE (5-2 ML) CASHED FOR $70.00 $20 Double 8 with 1,8 ($40) Lost $0.50 Pick 4 8,7,9 with 8,1,5,2 with 10,5,12,9 with 2,7,6 ($72) Lost Trainer Shug McGaughey picks some good spots at his hometrack and this 2yo colt seems to be developing nicely toward a winning race. He showed good sprinters early speed in his debut at 6 furlongs, and then stretched out to 1 1/16 and closed with a mild gain. The blinkers go on today, and I get the sense that this horse has been properly prepped to put it all together together against a field that seems less talented.
Race 7 $10 Exacta Box 1-5-8 ($60) Lost $1 Trifecta Box 1-2-5-8 ($24) Lost $20 Double 1,8 with 10 ($40) Lost Trying to catch a price with a couple of longshots in the mix in a race that is more competitive than the odds will likely suggest.
Race 8 $10 Exacta Box 5-10 ($20) Lost $1 Trifecta Box 5-10-12 ($6) Lost $20 Double 10 with 2,7 ($40) Lost The #14 horse is an also eligible, but would definitely be the horse to beat if she is in. This #10 longshot has a good chance to run well with a good workout recently and a running style that could pick up the pieces in what will probably be a hotly contested pace.
Race 9 $20 to Win & Place #2 MONEIGH MOPROBLEMS (8-1 ML) Lost, 8th $10 Exacta Box 2-6-7 ($60) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 2 with 3,4,6,7,10 ($60) Lost Could you guess that this is an Uncle Mo son? Well ignore the cheesy name and just make note that Mr B and Mr K both agree that this longshot is the likely winner here in this MSW on the Turf. The horse has been away from the races since February and has now been gelded. But he seems to be training well including a sharp workout at Keeneland and a gate drill at Belmont this month. The Kentucky Downs shippers will get most of the play because that has been a good angle this meet, but this George Weaver trainee should be ready to roll at a price today.
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 2,6,7,5,3,1 with 8,5,2 with 4,1 with 3,1,5 ($54) CASHED FOR $62.40 Maiden races are the bookends here.
Race 5 $20 to Win & Place on #3 MAXIMUS LUCK (30-1 ML) Lost, Last $1 Trifecta Box 3 with 1,2,5,7 ($36) Lost $0.50 Pick 4 3,1,5,7,2,6,9 with 4,6,12 with 6,1,4,9,3 with 6,7,10 ($157.50) Lost The trainer is going with the Keeneland-debuting jockey that has been getting mounts at Mountaineer and Belterra, rather than Julie Burke, who rode him in his 40 length defeat the last time he was in Kentucky. Why in the world try this extreme longshot, after it lost by 27 lengths this month at Belterra? Well, I think it all starts with the idea that this horse was gelded since that last race. And since then, drilled a nice bullet work. And the stretchout in distance is one of this trainer's few winning angles. This might be a new horse that could get loose on the lead. Try your luck...
Race 6 $100 to Win on #4 EIGHT TOWN (3-1 ML) CASHED FOR $360.00 $10 Exacta Box 4-6-12 ($60) Lost $1 Trifecta Box 4-6-12 ($6) Lost $20 Double 4 with 1,6 ($40) Lost I love the Speightstown sprinters and this one ships in from New York after a MSW win. He has had a couple of fast workouts over the Keeneland track since getting here, and he fits well in this NW2L allowance. He seems like a grinder that has hang around and ascend to the lead as the early speed tires. Albarado has had some good rides this meet, and I like having him up here.
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 4,5 with 2,1,11,9 with 5,13,1,6,3,12,11,10,9 with 7,6 ($72) Lost Let's keep the streak going today
Race 4 $10 to Win & Place on #5 DREAMOLOGY (8-1 ML) Lost, 6th $5 Exacta Box 1-5-13 ($30) Lost This colt really has the pedigree to handle both the switch to turf and the stretchout to 1 1/16 miles today. In her debut race at Churchill at 5-1 odds, he had an awkward start but did well to advance position throughout the race. He has had a couple of good works since, and definitely looks poised to improve in his second start. The trainer/jockey combo aren't every day winners at Keeneland, but the can pop the occasional upset.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 4 10,9,7,15,12 with 6,3,4 with 9,2,7,10 with 2,6,9,8,4 ($150) CASHED FOR $587.25 The late pick 4 is always a challenge at Keeneland
Race 7 $50 to Win & Place on #6 ONE THIRTY NINE (3-1 ML) Lost, 3rd $10 Exacta Box 3-4-6 ($60) CASHED FOR $184.00 $20 Double 6 with 2,9 ($40) Lost Albarado has really been riding well this meet and has handed me some crushing defeats, but today I am on his side and this colt should benefit from Robby getting on him. He has shown to be a good worker in the mornings, and his three races have been good experience builders. His 2nd place finish was 4 lengths ahead of the 3rd place finisher last out (in a field of 11), so he certainly ran a well enough to win at this level.
Race 8 $20 to Win & Place on #9 DADDY'S BOO (10-1 ML) Lost $10 Exacta Box 2-7-9 ($60) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 9 with 2,6,7,10 ($36) Lost $10 Double 9 with 2,6 ($20) Lost The name doesn't really sound like the name of a graded stakes winner. And when you have been the favorite in 9 straight races (winning 7 of them), I think the public is telling you that your horse should be trying something a little bit tougher. The recognition is that this is a really fast horse on the turf, and she could be dangerous on the lead here. The 1 1/2 mile distance is a big question mark, but the trainer only brings his horses down from Chicago that he thinks are live.
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 5,1,9,8 with ALL with 7,8 with 11,1,10,9 ($96) CASHED FOR $515.70 The 2nd and 4th leg seem wide open.
Race 4 $100 to Win on #7 KIRBY'S PENNY (6-5 ML) Lost, 2nd $20 Double 7 with 11,1,10 ($60) Lost $20 Exacta 7-8 ($20) Lost $10 Pick 3 7 with 11,1,10 with 5,11,4 ($90) Lost Keeneland doesn't have too many locks or singles, but this is probably my highest confidence Best Bet of the meet so far for what it's worth. She has won 4 of her last 5 races as she has climbed the conditions ladder, including two wins at Keeneland in the Spring. Her workouts have remained sharp since her last effort and she gets a top jockey today in Ortiz (5 wins in last 11 mounts). While all horses hit a class ceiling at some point, this filly is still among company that shouldn't pose a problem -- no multiple stakes winners in here. And he speed ratings suggest that there won't be any faster horses today, so I expect a pace pressing trip and an easy victory today.
Race 7 $0.50 Pick 4 2,5,7,9,11,12,13,1 with 8,9,1,11,4 with 8,11 with 9,1,5,7,3,4 ($240) CASHED FOR $202.20 An all filly pick 4! Need to see this ticket scratch down, but the payout should be in the thousands today.
Race 8 $20 to Win & Place on #8 SWEET STELLA (15-1 ML) Lost, 9th $10 Exacta Box 8-9 ($20) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 8 with 1,4,9,11 ($36) Lost $10 Double 8,9 with 8,11 ($40) CASHED FOR $182.00 One thing that trainer D Wayne Lukas is know for is putting young horses in races that are over their heads and this filly is no exception. She lost badly in all 3 graded stakes tries, which happened to be dirt routes -- the opposite of what she is being asked to do today in this turf sprint. So why today? She has always been a fast worker in the mornings, and a recent bullet work on the sloppy track could be a good sign. She did break her maiden on the turf here at Keeneland last year. Her last two races since a layoff have been sprints, and she gets an easier class spot here today than last time out. Often these turf sprints are won by turf sprint specialists, but there aren't really any of those in here (other than the AE's).
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 5,8,7 with 5,3,1,6 with 3,4,1,7,5 with 11,3,10,2,1 ($150) Lost
Race 4 $10 to Win & Place on #3 WISHIHADA (5-1 ML) Lost, 8th $5 Double 3 with 3,11 ($10) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 3 with 1,4,5,7 ($36) Lost Nice to see Geroux grab the opportunity to ride this Canterbury shipper. This is a horse with a lot of early speed, and I think she could steal the race in her first try for the barn of trainer Tammy Domenosky.
Race 5 $20 to Win & Place on #11 KENTUCKY KITTEN (8-1 ML) Lost, 9th $10 Double 3,11 with 2 ($20) Lost $1 Trifecta Box 3-10-11 ($6) Lost $5 Exacta Box 3-11 ($10) Lost There was a day where a Kitten's Joy colt, owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey, trained by Mike Maker, on the turf, would have been the odds-on favorite. But today, even with the assignment of a top national jockey, the horse is likely to be a longshot. Sure a turf route is a tough debut race task, but this horse is bred for it and with a consistent tab of solid workouts, I expect this one to run like a champion.
Race 6 $50 to Win & Place on #2 COMMANDEERING (2-1 ML) CASHED FOR $60.00 $20 Double 2 with 8 ($20) Lost The last race out at Belmont was not great, but if you throw that race out, this horse is a standout that shouldn't find much challenge in finally breaking his maiden here (the #5 horse is really the only other threat). The stretchout to 1 1/8 miles is a good move by Pletcher because the horse has had a tendency to hang in a lot of his races. Look for a peak effort in his third race off of a layoff.
Race 7 $0.50 Pick 4 8,4,2,9 with 6,2 with 1,7,12,10,6,5 with 9,5,8,13,2,11,4,10 ($192) Lost This will probably scratch down to a more reasonable ticket.
Race 1 $50 to Win & Place on #3 IT'S THE TRUTH (8-5 ML) Lost, 4th $20 Double 3-3 Lost This filly has been bouncing around the mid-Atlantic tracks, operating from trainer Graham Motion's home base of Fair Hill Farm in Maryland. So this trip to Keeneland is a first, as is dropping this horse into the claiming ranks. She is a front-running sprinter stretching out today against a small field of mostly milers and two-turn horses. I expect her to have no problem getting the extra distance against this group of lesser quality fillies and expect the jockey's instructions will be to go to the lead and ride with confidence.
Race 2 $50 to Win & Place on #3 MARLINSPIKE (3-1 ML) CASHED FOR $80.00 $0.50 Pick 4 3,4,2,6,7 with 9,1,2 with 3,2,10,13,11,8 with 5,3,8,1,6 ($225) Lost This well-bred Tapit filly out of the 3 yr old filly champion mare Surfside was bet heavily of course in her debut race at Woodside, but got caught late as the even money favorite and finished 2nd. Since then, she has been working very well, including two bullet works and two 6 furlong workouts, which I always like to see. This should prepare her well for the stretchout to 1 1/8 miles today, and the longer distance should reflect some of her top level breeding.
Race 4 $50 to Win & Place on #3 MISS KATIE BUG (3-1 ML) Lost, 6th $10 Exacta Box 2-3-10 ($60) Lost The combination of Dale Romans and Robby Albarado have won 6 of their last 12 together at Keeneland, and this looks like another winning spot. This is one of the best 2 year olds in the Roman's barn and a bullet work at Churchill this week suggests it is all systems go. The route race and dirt-to-turf move are a little bit surprising to me, but I take it as a sign of confidence and a curiosity to know what this young filly can do.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 4 8,5,4,10,3,9,2 with 4,5 with 13,6,2,3,7 with 10,3,9 ($105) Lost Left big money on the table yesterday with an unbelievable beat in the last leg of the late pick 4. If you didn't catch it, watch the race replay and see the aggressive, unnecessary "winning" move by the replacement jockey on the #2 horse only to have a beaten horse that was gassed come back to pass a horse that was even more gassed. I've seen a lot of races and it was surely something that happens 1 out of 10,000 races(about the same rate at which I criticize jockey's rides). Hoping for redemption today (which is foolish because horse racing never works that way).
Race 8 $20 to Win & Place on #13 MANITOULIN (8-1 ML) Lost, 7th $5 Double 13 with 2,10 ($10) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 13 with 2,3,6,7 ($36) Lost The outside post isn't ideal because it certainly puts this horse wide into the first turn, but I'm not too concerned because this horse has a closer's running style and a 1 1/2 mi distance is plenty of time to get good tactical position. While a graded stakes win here would be his first, the rest of the field is comparable and the is a good fit from a class level perspective. He won here at Keeneland in the Spring Meet and comes off of a nice win last out at Belmont. I think there will be enough speed in front of him for things to set up nicely for a sweeping move down the stretch.
Race 9 $20 to Win on #10 CHARM OFFENSIVE (8-1 ML) Lost, 7th $1 Trifecta Box 3-9-10 ($6) Lost
Race 1 $20 to Win & Place on #1 HEADLINER (12-1 ML) Lost, 6th $1 Trifecta Box 1-2-4-5 ($24) Lost $5 Double 1 with 3,6 ($10) Lost The good bloodlines haven't shown up yet in this Tapit gelding, but his dam produced a 3yo graded stakes winner. While he hasn't shown much on the track in his 3 starts, he keeps dropping in class, most recently at the challenging Saratoga, and faces his easiest field yet today. There are no published workouts since that last race two months ago, which is very intriguing, and I expect that today we will see a new horse.
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 6,3,5 with 4,1,3,5 with 3,4,7,6,9 with 1,3,7,6 ($120) Lost Wednesday cards mean shorter fields, but it is really tough to find singles on today's card.
Race 3 $10 to Win & Place on #4 SHADOW TRACER (12-1 ML) Lost, 3rd $1 Trifecta Box 1-3-4-5 ($24) CASHED FOR $23.60 $5 Double 4 with 3,4 ($10) Lost This colt ran second to the #1 horse here last Spring at 70-1 odds and then piled up 4 straight wins after that at lesser tracks. What he brings to the table consistently is early speed and he is kind of a limited to wire to wire wins. The challenge today is that the #2 horse to his inside also is likely to take the same strategy. But this horse has the advantage of showing that he likes Keeneland and if he does happen to get an uncontested lead, I wouldn't expect him to falter in this short field sprint.
Race 5 $50 to Win & Place on #1 WHITE GOLD (9-2 ML) CASHED FOR $80.00 $10 Exacta Box 1-3-7 ($60) CASHED FOR $149.00 $20 Double 1 with 2,6 ($40) Lost $0.50 Pick 4 1,3,7,6 with 2,6,9,4,10,7 with 12,1,9 with 5,9,2,3 ($144) Lost I struggled to land on a Best Bet today, so I decided to go with somewhat of a longer odds runner than normal. When I tell you that he is a beaten favorite last out at Belterra, you might think I have lost my mind, but the filly does have better speed ratings than the rest of the field and drops into the claiming ranks for the first time today for a high percentage trainer. With a good break and a clean trip, I think this horse will run away with it at a new price.
Race 6 $50 to Win and Place on #2 SIR SAHIB (2-1 ML) Lost, 3rd $20 Exacta Box 2-6 ($40) Lost $20 Double 2,6 with 1,12 ($80) CASHED FOR $2,108.00 This colt ran 3rd in his debut race last out in what has proven to be a key race, with both the winner and runner-up having gone on to win subsequent races. What will make this horse the likely favorite here in the strong closing move, picking up 8 lengths going very wide during the race. Since then, he has impressed in his workouts and seems ready for a peak effort today. My only hesitation is the pace scenario, which might not set things up for his big closing kick. The #6 horse here had a troubled start last out, but I think will show good early speed today and could be dangerous on the lead.
Race 1 $50 to Win & Place on #5 WHATEVERYBODYWANTS (2-1 ML) CASHED FOR $95.00 $20 Double 5 with 5,6 ($40) Lost This horse has gone off the rails over the past year, falling from being a graded stakes contender as a 3 yr old to a badly beaten favorite last out in a $20k claiming race. But he was claimed in the last race and seems poised for improvement under new trainer Robertino Diodoro. Workouts for the new barn suggest his health is fine, and the trainer has good winning percentages off of the claim (25%) and with beaten favorites (28%), suggesting the new connections know where to place a horse. Look for jockey Corey Lanerie to reacquaint this horse with the winners circle.
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 5,6,8 with 5,2,6,1 with 3,5,6,4,7 with 11,14 ($60) Lost Smallish fields, but a couple of longshots in here with a chance to make this playable.
Race 4 $20 to Win & Place on #3 MARENGO ROAD (10-1 ML) Lost, 4th $10 Exacta Box 3-5-6 ($60) Lost $10 Double 3 with 11,14 ($20) Lost No doubt that the big name classy horse in the race is Shining Copper, Mr K's best bet today, who finished 3rd in the Arlington Million in 2015 and then at the Breeders Cup Turf at Keeneland that year blew a 20 length lead and ended up losing by 21 lengths. But I will try to beat that 7yr old today with Marengo Road, a mid Atlantic shipper for Michael Trombetta. I would expect him to sit behind a front running Shining Copper and looks for him to attack on the stretch drive.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 4 7,8,3,6,5,2,1 with 10,1,5,7,6,3,4,8 with 4,7,12 with 6,8 ($168) Lost Almost forgot to bet this until Mr K reminded me.
Race 7 $10 to Win & Place on #10 GALILIANCO (8-1 ML) CASHED FOR $103.00 $5 Exacta Box 1-5-10 ($30) Lost $5 Double 10-4 Lost $5 Pick 3 10-4-6 Lost It didn't seem like this filly liked the turf at all in her debut race at Kentucky Downs, so I look for a much improved effort on the dirt today. Wes Ward's ability to get 2yr olds to run well is something you can bank on at Keeneland, and a couple of good workouts on the dirt since the filly's last start suggest all is well. Also Mr K's longshot bet of the day and he has been hot this weekend!
Race 8 $100 to Win on #4 CORBY (2-1 ML) Lost, 3rd $20 Double 4-6 Lost The filly has had a bad case of seconditis during her career win only 1 win (by a nose) and 6 place finishes. But there is no doubt she is the fastest horse in the race, so how will they break this problem today? I think the route-to-sprint-to-route pattern is a good attempt. Just shaking up the normal cadence of a race might help improve her ability to finish alone. Only win money for me!
Race 9 $100 to Win on #6 GIRLS KNOW BEST (3-1 ML) CASHED FOR $260.00 This is a fast filly and she is coming into this race off of a career best effort. She will likely be the pace setter, but I don't view her exclusively as a needs-the-lead type. Win 4 wins in 8 starts, you know she knows how to find the wire. Today's $40k claiming level is well within her class ability.
Race 1 $5 Exacta Box 1-3-6 ($30) CASHED FOR $181.50 $1 Trifecta Box 1-3-6-8 ($24) CASHED FOR $333.60 $5 Double 3,6 with 9 ($10) Lost This is an open claiming race to start today's card and it is indeed wide open. #3 Hugh B. is cheap in class, but has the best early speed and should play a big role in the outcome. #6 Noshackleshere is still trying to find the right competitive level and drops in class today.
Race 2 $100 to Win on #9 LIGHTNING DOVE (3-1 ML) Lost, 2nd $20 Double 9 with 5,9 ($40) Lost $0.50 Pick 4 9,7 with 5,9,2,12,6,10,7,4 with 7,5,6,1,4 with 2,1,9,5,11,7,8 ($280) Lost This was a highly thought of Uncle Mo filly that never really made it happen on the track as a 2 yr old, and during this 3yr old season the connections have been consistently dropping her in class to find a winning level. And it looks like the claiming ranks is where that is. She has been off a couple of months and returns to Keeneland, where she broke her maiden. With some good workouts it seems like a smart move to try her back on the dirt for the first time in almost a year. And big time jockey Mike Smith gets out of the jocks' room early to ride this big potential filly who still has time to develop in a stakes horse. Race 3 $10 to Win & Place on #5 MISS BLUE DOT (5-1 ML) Lost, 4th $5 Exacta Box 5-9 ($10) Lost $5 Double 5,9 with 5,7 ($20) Lost This filly had a troubled trip last time out at the MSW level, where she might have finished in the money otherwise. The 2nd place finish two races back at the maiden claiming level was a good baseline to indicate that she at least belongs at this level. These experiences are often underrated when you have a field of some many first-timer horses that might be better bred and haven't lost. But this trainer wins at a good 19% clip with maiden claimers, and I will side with the race experience in this large field. Race 4 $10 to Win & Place on #7 CONQUEST WILDCAT (6-1 ML) Lost, 4th $5 Exacta Box 5-6-7 ($30) Lost You will get a price here because the trainer has been cold, but the class drop is a necessary move and will really put the horse in a more winnable situation. A 19 length defeat can bring some honesty to a barn, and this is a well bred sprinter that has put up winning speed ratings when at this level. This horse can handle a quick pace today, and I expect him to rate just behind the leaders and then finish well late.
Race 6 $20 to Win & Place on #11 LOUP (20-1 ML) Lost, 8th $10 Exacta Box 7-8-11 ($60) Lost $1 Trifecta Key Box 11 with 1,3,5,7,8 ($60) Lost A bullet work last week at Keeneland caught my attention -- a 59s 5 furlong work from the gate. Two year olds are not supposed to be doing that, but a look at this colt's dam, Avalanche Lady, shows some precociousness with three winners out of four starters and some big success as a two year old by Loup's half brother, Swipe, who ran 2nd in the Breeders Cup Juvenille at Keeneland and was multiple graded stakes placed. I am quite surprised at the 20-1 ML.
Race 7 $0.50 Pick 4 6,10,4,7,8,11 with 9,4,1,5,14 with 10,11 with 8,5,1,6,12,4 ($180) Lost You are going to need a big ticket today to take this one down.
Race 1 $100 to Win on #7 THE WEEF (7-5 ML) Lost, 3rd $10 Exacta Box 2-4-7 ($60) Lost $20 Double 7 with 6 ($20) Lost The filly race a nice 2nd last time -- just wasn't a match for the winner. But she showed good early speed and Geroux is back for a second try with this smaller barn trainer, Rodolphe Brisset, who also is currently the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts. This filly looks to be clearly the best among the experienced runners here and has consistent workouts at Keeneland, so unless one of the first time starters blitzes her (not likely in a MCL), The Weef looks like a good way to start off a fun Friday card.
Race 2 $10 to Win & Place on #6 NITE OF THE HUNTER (5-1 ML) Lost, 4th $0.50 Pick 4 6,2,3,7 with 5,8,2,4,1 with 3,2,12,6 with 12,8 ($80) Lost This experienced claimer always shows good speed, but never seems to be around for the finish. But I like the trainer's move of claiming him at his bottom level last out and now stepping him up in class and cutting him back in distance. Throw out the last race as a beaten favorite and this horse would be the public choice in this race. This winner would be a nice start to the infamous 22% takeout, early Keeneland Pick 4.
Race 5 $100 to Win on #12 FLASH N' DANCE (3-1 ML) Lost, 2nd $20 Double 12-9 ($20) Lost $10 Pick 3 12-9-5 ($10) Lost What a feeling it would be to see this horse cross the line first in this full field of 12 (plus our AE's waiting to fill any holes). In her two prior races, she has shown that she can stalk or run on the front end. That versatility will be important given the outside post, but she should have the experience to rate well behind others.
Race 6 $0.50 Pick 5 9 with 5 with 3,7,9,1 with 10,8,1 with 7,3,4 ($18) Lost Let's try to single some chalks early and see what happens in the later legs.
Race 7 $100 to Win on #5 PROMISES FULFILLED (2-1 ML) CASHED FOR $220.00 $0.50 Pick 4 5,4,1 with 3,7,9,1,6,4 with 10,8,1,4 with 7,3,4,2 ($144) Lost The Keeneland October meet is packed with 2yr old maiden races, but here is fun one for previous winners. The likely favorite here was very impressive in winning his debut race in what might prove to be a faster time than we will even see today in this allowance race. It is hard to imagine anyone running with him in the early stages, so absent some unforeseen mishap, this colt should be 2 for 2 lifetime after today. Race 8 $10 to Win & Place on #3 ERVSAYSLETHERGO (12-1 ML) Lost, 7th $5 Exacta Box 3-7 ($10) Lost $5 Double 3-10 ($5) Lost You might need to take out a loan to bet all of Mr B's plays today! If you take out the last race from this horse's past performances, you can see the early speed, but with the cutback in distance I don't expect to see her on the lead. The trainer does well with the route to sprint moves, winning 22%.
Race 9 $5 Exacta Box 8-10 ($10) Lost $10 Double 10-7 ($10) Lost Out of the 14 North American thoroughbred tracks running today, the Buffalo Trace is the only graded stake race in America this Friday. With a full field in here, there are great odds to be had whether it is former Breeders Cup runners, shippers from 7 different tracks, or unheralded jockeys getting a chance to boost their career. Several handicappers will pass the opportunity to bet this race due to a boycott of Keeneland in protest of management increasing the takeout rate on several bets. Their boycott has appeared to be successful so far with handle declining materially so far this meet. I wish them luck in getting the industry to lower takeout rates. But for the wide majority of these protesters, their desired outcome of lower takeout rates will only cause them to lose less, not win more. Also, worth noting that you can get a DelMar shipper here at 30-1 ML odds in the #10 Indriya. She hasn't won in two years. Raises the old handicapper question: "Why is she here? And why did her no name jockey come here with her?"
Race 1 $10 Win & Place on #5 NO LIMIT (8-1 ML) Lost, Last $5 Double 5-6 ($5) Lost This is a pretty weak maiden race by Keeneland standards (well, you can kind of say the same thing about today's entire card), so I like this class dropper who has basically been overmatched in his prior three starts. His half sister is Grade 1 winner Birdatthewire.
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 6,8 with 2,9,10,5,6 with 5,2,4 with 6,4,7,5 ($60) Lost Cheap races, big prices. Playing a lot today to try to capitalize.
Race 3 $10 Win & Place on #2 COURT'S RULING (15-1 ML) Lost, 7th $5 Double 2 with 2,5 ($10) Lost Another class dropper (maybe). Hard to evaluate the races and although those Hazel Park and Mountaineer wins last year won't count for much with bettors, they are a clue that this horse still has a nice rally style when the class level is right. Jon Court -- no relation -- has his best chance of the meet to make a splash today.
Race 4 $50 Win & Place on #5 MYDRINKSELECTION (5-2 ML) CASHED FOR $80.00 $20 Double 5 with 4,6 ($40) Lost Trainer Mike Maker already wins at a nice 20% clip, but he wins at twice that percentage when trying for back to back claiming wins with a horse. Many claiming-oriented trainers tend to get too aggressive with placement, especially after a big 7 3/4 length win like this filly had last time out at Indiana Downs. But Maker realizes that the game is about cashing checks for his owners, and that peak efforts are usually not followed by another huge step forward and that when a horse is in good form, it is more profitable to put it in a winnable spot. So with a huge effort last time out, a bullet work since then, and just a mild step up in class, this horse looks ready to ring the register. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione needs to be careful not to get caught in a speed duel with the cheaper #2 horse.
Race 5 $20 to Win & Place on #6 HEZA KITTEN (10-1 ML) Lost, 4th $5 Exacta Box 4-6-7 ($30) Lost $5 Double 4,6 with 6,9 ($20) Lost It is kind of hard to imagine that you will get 10-1 odds on a Wesley Ward 2-yr old...Kitten Joy colt...in a maiden race...at Keeneeland...that happens to be the KP Longshot Bet of the Day...of BOTH Mr. K and Mr. B! Granted, there are a lot of big name trainers in here with some very expensive sales grads and well-bred homebreds. But Ward is an exceptional 24% winner with first time starters, and jockey Joe Bravo has the right experience and grit to handle this big field racing on the turf.
Race 7 $0.50 Pick 4 4,8,3,7,11,10,6,9 with 4,8,7,6,3 with 8,1 with 3,5,4,1 ($160) Lost Assuming your bankroll is still intact by now with all of the plays today, this late pick 4 should pay well enough to cover a bigger than normal ticket.
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 5,1 with 1,5,9,2,7 with 4,3 with 3,4 ($20) Lost Three 2-yr old races are part of this tricky pick 4.
Race 3 $20 to Win & Place on #1 CALL ME (8-1 ML) Lost, 4th It is usually pretty foolish to go against Wes Ward horses in a 2-yr old race at Keeneland, but this colt debuts today for another successful trainer, Brad Cox, who has a very solid 19% winning percentage with first-time starters. All of the dam's progeny have been winners. Looking for a price here in a group of marginal quality 2yr old maidens.
Race 5 $0.50 Pick 4 3,4 with 1,4,13,2 with 2,10 with 10,12 ($16) Lost
Race 6 $100 to Win on #1 C Z ROCKET (5-2 ML) CASHED FOR $190.00 $20 Exacta Box 1-4 Lost $20 Double 1-2 CASHED FOR $62.00 A big sweeping win in her debut race at Saratoga suggests that this colt is ready to make the quick jump up to an NW1x at Keeneland. He brought an $800k price tag in the sales, and shows the promise to recoup that fairly quickly. The workouts since the last start have gotten progressively better with the five week break suggesting that the big speed figure can be repeated. The other City Zip colt in here, #4 Zipp On By will probably be the one to catch, so we might have an exciting finish with two offspring of one of the best sprinting sires.
Race 7 $50 to Win & Place on #2 RUSHING FALL (3-1 ML) CASHED FOR $165.00 The Jessamine has an interesting mix of 2-yr old shippers from different tracks. I really value the quality of the NYRA shippers, and this filly's debut win on the turf at Belmont was super impressive. While certain to be the favorite off of that win and with the connections of Chad Brown/Javier Castellano, I expect this filly to have a rapid upward career trajectory and she should easily be up for this Grade 3 test.
Race 1 $100 to Win on #8 NORTHERN SCREAMER (8-5 ML) CASHED FOR $140.00 $20 Double 8 with 3,5 ($40) Lost It looks like the Ramsey/Maker connections didn't see much upside with this recent claim after she didn't run a step in first off of the claim at Kentucky Downs on the turf. So they have her back down into a $10k claimer on the dirt, which seems like a bigger drop than necessary and usually a red flag, but for these connections it is not. The Ramseys are always determined to be the leading owners at the Keeneland meets and are willing to drop these claimers way down in class to get an easy win, even if it means the horse getting claimed away. Look for Saez to have her prominent early.
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 3,5,2 with 8,4,7,3 with 3,1,5,4,7,6 with 1,10,15 ($108) Lost
Race 6 $20 to Win & Place #4 STORM ADVISORY (8-1 ML) CASHED FOR $68.00 $10 Exacta Box 1-2-4 ($60) CASHED FOR $391.00 $20 Double 4-5 Lost $0.50 Pick 5 4 with 5 with 13,3,9,1,4,8 with 6,8,11 with 4,5,6 ($27) Lost In a short field that is void of early speed, I expect this longshot to steal the race. Corey Lanerie gets the mount and he is usually a good judge of pace and should be able to milk things along.
Race 7 $100 to Win on #5 MIA MISCHIEF (1-1 ML) CASHED FOR $150.00 $20 Double 5 with 3,13 ($40) Lost $0.50 Pick 4 5 with 13,3,9,1,4,8,14,12 with 6,8,11,3,5 with 6,5,4 ($60) CASHED FOR $252.40 This is a very green, but talented 2 yr old who looked like she was going to run away with the win in her debut race, but then goofed around and got caught in the stretch. Asmussen puts his go-to jockey, Ricardo Santana Jr., on this time and he should more successfully get her to stay to the task. You never know what the first time starters will do at Keeneland, so watch the tote board for hot money, but this odds-on favorite looks too dominant.
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 4,6,5 with 9,6,1,11 with 6,2,11,8 with 2,5,8 ($72) CASHED FOR $1,120.50 These are probably the four most difficult races of the day, so hopeful to get a couple of prices here.
Race 4 $20 to Win & Place on #6 ECLIPSED MOON (15-1 ML) Lost, 6th $5 Exacta Box 2-6-11 ($30) Lost $5 Pick 3 6,2,11,8 with 2,5,8 with 4 ($60) CASHED FOR $1,463.50 A nice workout earlier this week caught my attention with this young colt, who had previously been an average morning worker but perhaps likes the Keeneland surface or maybe is sharp for his return to Kentucky. He tried the always competitive MSW level twice at Saratoga, and while he didn't hit the board, he had some excuses with bad breaks. I'm hopeful for a cleaner start this time, but this race is packed with early speed so I'm not too concerned about a slow start because he seems inclined to finish well. You always have to watch the tote board at Keeneland in these 2 year old races, but I'm looking for the upset here.
Race 5 $5 Exacta Box 2-5-8 ($30) CASHED FOR $593.00
Race 7 $50 to Win & Place on #4 ROCA ROJO (2-1 ML) Lost, 3rd $20 Double 4 with 4,11 ($40) Lost $0.50 Pick 4 4 with 4,2,9,8,3 with 7,2,8,10 with 14,11,7,9 ($40) Lost Today should be the day this mare gets her first Grade 1 win as the likely heavy favorite in the First Lady Stakes. I expect a patient, confident ride from Castellano as the speed from the outside sets the pace. On the far turn, this horse should show a closing kick that will drive her to the front for an easy win.
Race 8 $5 Exacta Box 2-4 ($10) Lost
Race 10 $5 Exacta Box 7-14 ($10) Lost
Race 2 $0.50 Pick 4 5,7 with 3 with 1,4 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,9 ($14) Lost Singling the Best Bet of the Day in Race 3
Race 3 $100 to Win on #3 COLONEL DAN (3-1 ML) Lost, 6th $20 Double 3 with 1,4 ($40) Lost $10 Exacta 3 over 2,6 ($20) Lost Obviously leaning pretty heavily on this claimer to get the meet started off right. While counting on a non-winner of two lifetime gelding might seem risky, I do expect that the connections have finally found a class level where this horse can compete and win his first non-maiden race. In fact, the trainer is a 28% winner with beaten favorites, which indicates an urgency to find that right level after a losing race. Jockey Corey Lanerie has tried different running styles with this gelding as the pilot in two previous tries, and I expect that he will have him a little bit closer to the pace today. The recent past performances say to me that this one is cycling up for a peak effort today. I expect Lanerie to be hot this meet with a lot of good assignments for many of the top Kentucky-based horses.
Race 7 $0.50 Pick 4 2,4,8,9 with 4,5,11 with 1,6,10 with 5,8,11 ($54) Lost Some nice longshot potential in the late Pick 4 today.
Race 8 $20 to Win & Place on #4 LOOSE ON THE TOWN (12-1 ML) Lost, 5th $10 Exacta Box 4-5 ($20) Lost $10 Double 4,5 with 1 ($20) Lost I have much respect for some very talented big name horses in this BC prep race like Limousine Liberal, which just missed winning this race last year by a nose, and Whitmore, a Kentucky Derby runner in 2016 (and Mr K's best bet today). But big names also let you get some other good horses at great bargain odds, and I think the juicy odds on this runner are worth a wager. The 6 furlong distance on the dirt probably suits this Speightstown gelding the best, and Saez is a talented jock who will put this horse on or near the lead early. The horse fights hard every race and is now racing the fastest races of his career and seems ready for a Grade 2 challenge.
Race 10 $20 to Win & Place on #5 IMPOSING WILL (15-1 ML) Lost, 9th $5 Exacta Box 5-8-11 ($30) Lost This is a very peculiar entry in this 1 1/2 mile turf route, because here is a 3yr old gelding who doesn't seem bred for either the surface or the distance yet is here today jumping up in class against older horses off of a win last out for a high percentage Arlington trainer and jockey. I know it sounds like I am giving you a lot of reasons why the horse is taking on too much, but sometimes those "Why are they here?" horses give you some of your biggest wins. I will give the connections the benefit of the doubt and guess that they have a shot that is much better than their odds will suggest.