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Mr. B

2017 Spring Meet Totals

Wagered: $9,483.00

Cashed: $6,611.45

Net Loss: $2,871.55

ROI: -30%

APRIL 28

SPOT PLAYS

Race 1
$50 to Win & Place on #1 INTERNET SUCCESS (4-5 ML)    CASHED FOR $52.50
$20 Exacta 1-4
$20 Pick 3 1-6-5
The irony of this selection is that Mr B has not had much internet success over this meet. So rather than try to rescue everything in one day, I'm not going to try to beat the chalk much on the last day. These are small fields with only a couple of goods horses in each. Not a great way to close a meet. This favorite in the opener today drops in class after getting claimed last time at Oaklawn, but a good purse here compensates for that. Lanerie gets on and this should give him a good start to the day as he takes 9 mounts (3 likely favorites) in an attempt to try to catch Rosario in the jockey standings. Rosario probably only has 3 mounts, and Lanerie trails by 3 wins.

Race 7
$20 to Win & Place on #7 PRIVATE CLIENT (9-2 ML)
$1 Trifecta Key Box 7 with 3,6,9,10,11
$10 Double 7-7
I couldn't feel confident enough to back any true longshots today, so 9-2 might be your best price today if my handicapping is correct. Proctor has a talented filly here and was impressive in a crushing maiden special weight win at Saratoga last summer.She faltered in her try against winners at Kentucky Downs and has been on the shelf since then. This looks like a great spot for a confidence building come back win despite the almost eight month break and now clear workout pattern.

$0.50 PICK 4's

Races 2 thru 5
Race 2    6-4
Race 3    5-4-7
Race 4    9-8-3-1
Race 5    7-2-6
Total: $36

**Special $0.50 Pick 5 play** -- race 6 offers good value on a card that doesn't offer much, so I'll play this for the first time this meet
Race 6    7-6-4-3-5
Race 7    7-6-10-3-11-9
Race 8    7-6
Race 9    4-3
Race 10  12-1-9
Total: $180

Races 7 thru 10
Race 7    7-6-10-3-11-9
Race 8    7-6-2
Race 9    4-3
Race 10  12-1-9-16
Total: $72
APRIL 27

SPOT PLAYS

Race 2
$20 Double 1,2 with 4    CASHED FOR $216.00

Race 3
$50 to Win & Place on #4 RITZY LASS (3-1 ML)    CASHED FOR $240.00
$10 Exacta Box 4-5-6    CASHED FOR $96.00
It was difficult for me to land on a Best Bet on this card, because I think most of the these races have multiple top contenders. I expect Thursday will have much fewer short price horse winners than Wednesday did. So let's make some money here with a horse that deserves to be favorite here, but will probably go off at a solid 3-1 price given some of its "outsider" characteristics. Penn National shippers to Keeneland don't usually deserve much consideration, but this mare takes what still might be the largest class drop in the field. She was stakes placed only last fall, so a drop all the way down to a $16k claimer is a big drop. The front wraps last time and the poor result might scare off some, but I think a better explanation is that those lameness fears are just cover for a newly assigned trainer, Matt Kordenbrock, to sneak an unknown shipper in here (no Kee works) and get a qualifying race to establish starter allowance eligibility without too much worry of getting claimed at the end of this meet. 

Race 6
$1 Trifecta Key Box 7 with 1,2,3,6,9

Race 8
$20 to Win & Place on #7 AWESOME THOUGHT (15-1 ML)
$5 Exacta Box 1-7-8
$1 Trifecta Key Box 7 with 1,5,8,11
$10 Double 1,7 with 8,9    CASHED FOR $66.00
This gelding ships in from Oaklawn for a try on the turf. Most of experience has been on the dirt, but he seems to possess good early speed and should be well placed early on or near the lead. He last race was a career best speed figure, which along with a jump up in class indicate he might be really sharp right now. And most importantly, this is also Mr K's longshot of the day too! 


$0.50 PICK 4's

Races 2 thru 5
Race 2    2-1-7-3-8-6
Race 3    4-5-6
Race 4    2-10-6-8
Race 5    2-9-5-7-6
Total: $180    CASHED FOR $47.30

Races 6 thru 9
Race 6    7-2-3-1-6-9
Race 7    6-7-5
Race 8    7-1-8-5-11
Race 9    8-9-6-4-5-3
Total: $270    CASHED FOR $75.15

APRIL 26


SPOT PLAYS


Race 2

$5 Exacta Box 5-11

$5 Pick 3 5,11 with 4,6 with 3,12


Race 3

$10 Exacta Box 4-6

$10 Double 4,6 with 3,12     CASHED FOR $59.00     


Race 4

$20 to Win & Place on #3 KOWBOY POSSE (15-1 ML)

$5 Exacta Box 3-12

$1 Trifecta Key Box 3 with 1,10,12

$20 Double 3,12 with 4      CASHED FOR $98.00

This colt is one of only three horses in the field that have a race under their saddle belt and comes back now for the second time this meet to try the 4 1/2 furlong sprint again. He encountered some traffic trouble in the last race, but did well to keep to it and finish 4th as a longshot. The jockey and trainer are winless, so the price should be huge again. But I think experience counts with two year old sprinters and I will take a shot here to beat a bunch of first time starters from the barns of Ward, Pletcher, McPeek, and Asmussen. Yeah, that seems crazy doesn't it.


Race 5

$50 to Win & Place on #4 MAKARIOS (8-5 ML)    CASHED FOR $180.00

$20 Exacta 4-1    CASHED FOR $96.00

$20 Double 4 with 1,12     CASHED FOR $138.00

OK, now back to something much chalkier. This Zito runner had a nice showing on opening day jumping to a Grade 3 race straight from his maiden win and finishing a solid 3rd, beaten by only 1 1/2 lengths. This spot today is easier and with the extra half furlong it gives Lanerie more time to unleash that closing kick that the colt showed last time. The biggest threat is that there isn't much speed in here, so the #1 horse might try to win it from the front end and will need to be caught, so that keeps me from making the #4 a single in the pick 4's which both use this 5th race..

 
$0.50 PICK 4's


Races 2 thru 5

Race 2    5-11-12-6-7

Race 3    6-4-1-2

Race 4    3-12-10

Race 5    4-1

Total: $60    CASHED FOR $25.05


Races 5 thru 8

Race 5    4-1

Race 6    1-12-4-6-3

Race 7    ALL

Race 8    9-8-6-12-13

Total:$175    CASHED FOR $250.00


APRIL 23

SPOT PLAYS

Race 3
$50 to Win & Place on #1 GRATEFUL (9-5 ML)    CASHED FOR $70.00
$20 Exacta 1 over 4,5
$10 Pick 3 1 with 3,4,6 with 4,7,8
Pletcher and Castellano have teamed up to go 4 for 4 in the last two weeks, and look likely here to go 5 for 5. The two horses that finished in front of this filly in her last race have gone on to win a race since that, so it is likely that her 3rd place finish back in January was against a high quality group. If she runs that same race, she will prove to be faster than this field and a solid 5 furlong workout at Keeneland indicates that she is ready to run. The pace scenario sets up nicely for her to deliver a rally in the stretch in what should be a comfortable win.

Race 5
$20 to Win & Place on #7 BOOKMAN (15-1 ML)    CASHED FOR $660.00
$5 Exacta Box 4-7-8
$1 Trifecta Key Box 7 with 2,4,8,10
$10 Double 7 with 1,7    CASHED FOR $495.00
City Zip is one of my favorite underappreciated sires for sprinters, and this 3 year old colt shows the potential to light up the toteboard today in this maiden special weight sprint. The dam has 4 winner from 5 starters, so you know it is probably just a matter of time before this one gets it done, and I like the confidence of jumping up to the MSW level at Keeneland from his humble beginnings at a Turfway Park maiden claimer. The colt has been working out at Keeneland all winter and spring, showing some nice 4 and 5 furlong workouts on the dirt track. He gets Lasix for the first time today, and I expect Jimenez to try to take him straight to the lead and never look back.  It's getting late in the meet, but it only takes one horse! 

$0.50 PICK 4's

Races 2 thru 5
Race 2    6-4-5
Race 3    1-5-4-6-9
Race 4    6-4-3-5-1
Race 5    7-8-4-10-2-5
Total: $225

Races 6 thru 9
Race 6    7-1-5-8
Race 7    ALL
Race 8    1-11-5-12-9-8
Race 9    13-6-3
Total: $216    CASHED FOR $264.50
APRIL 22

SPOT PLAYS

Race 1
$20 Double 4,5 with 2

Race 2
$50 to Win & Place on #2 MESOMA (7-2 ML)    CASHED FOR $80.00
$20 Exacta 2 with 1,7
$20 Double 2-6
Trainer Chris Hartman knows how to play the claiming game and drops this gelding down to a beaten claimers level after trying optional claimers twice at Oaklawn after a smart claim to start that meet. There were no real excuses for the poor last out effort, but that level might be above his head at this point in his career. This 6yr old only has 10 career races, so health problems have certainly been an issue, but he has been in the money 70% and if any of his back class shows up here, he should romp. Joe Bravo has the option to win either on the lead or off the pace with this versatile runner,

Race 4
$5 Exacta Box 3-4
$10 Double 3-4

Race 5
$20 to Win & Place on #4 BELLE HILL (8-1 ML)
$5 Exacta Box 4-6-7
$1 Trifecta Key Box 4 with 1,2,5,6,7
$10 Double 4 with 3,7
Watch out! The first time this meet that Mr. B and Mr. K agree on the Longshot Bet of the Day. So you might not get the 8-1 morning line odds, but it still should be a decent price. The layoff is obviously the big question mark, with only one race in 18 months. Perhaps her third trainer since she was a regular West Coast stakes runner can be rewarded for his patience. I like seeing a 6 furlong workout ahead of a route race, so I think the mare will be fresh. There isn't much early speed in this race so expect her to be on or pressing the lead if she is ready to run.

Race 7
$10 Exacta Box 3-5-6    CASHED FOR $207.00

Race 9
$0.50 Trifecta Key Box 4 with 2,3,5,6,11
#4 Itsinthepost (4-1 ML) is in great form now, coming off of a career effort last out to win the Grade 2 San Luis Reye at this distance at Santa Anita. There are certainly other horses in here with stronger back class, but none are as sharp right now. A bounce is possible, but shipping in from California is a big vote of confidence from the connections.  

Race 10
$20 to Win & Place on #8 NAPLES MIST (15-1)
$10 Exacta Box 2-8
$1 Trifecta Key Box 8 with 2,4,5,6,9
The well bred favorite, #2 Awestruck, will be tough at short odds, but I would rather take a chance with this first-time starter in the night cap. This filly is conditioned by a small barn trainer, who wins 40% with first-time starters. A consistent training program shows a series of positive workouts and I like the jockey assignment (21% winning percentage in sprints). This is a Medaglia d'Oro filly out of a dam that has produced 2 winners from her 4 starters. Time to bust out the big mutuels -- it is getting late in the meet...

$0.50 PICK 4's

Races 2 thru 5
Race 2    2-1-7-6
Race 3    6-5
Race 4    3-4
Race 5    4-7-6-1-2-5
Total: $48

Races 7 thru 10
Race 7    3-6-5
Race 8    6-7-3-5
Race 9    4-6-11-5-2-3
Race 10  8-2-9-4-5-6
Total: $216    CASHED FOR $98.90

APRIL 21

SPOT PLAYS

Race 1
$20 Double 5-6

Race 2
$20 to Win & Place on #6 SAIL AHOY (2-1 ML)
$20 Exacta 6 over 2,5
$20 Double 6 with 8,10
While much of the field is only a few races past their maiden win, the McGaughey hasn't won in two years but was competitive when thrown into graded stakes company as a two year old. So the talent was there, but given the poor form since, it seems like the connections have found a soft spot to get that second career win. I expect Saez to keep him close to the pace and sweep to the lead on the turn for an easy win in what should be a chalky early daily double.

Race 8
$20 to Win & Place on #1 HER LOVE FOR PAPPY (8-1 ML)
$5 Exacta Box 1-2-12
$1 Trifecta Key Box 1 with 2,6,10
$10 Double 1-5
She should be quickest out of the gate and the #1 post suits her well to pop out to the lead. Her turf form is unknown, but a solid workout and cutting back 1/2 a furlong here seem to be in her favor. This is a wide open race so the price should be right here for some good payoffs.

Race 9
$50 to Win & Place on #5 UNBRIDLED MO (4-5 ML)    CASHED FOR $122.50
$20 Double 5 with 2,11
There isn't much value here, but sometimes you just need a win! The name alone should tell you that this is a quality, high upside racehorse. Pletcher has her placed in a very comfortable spot which should allow another confidence building win before testing later this year if she is ready for bigger stakes. 


$0.50 PICK 4's

Races 2 thru 5
Race 2    6-5
Race 3    8-10-9
Race 4    5-4-3
Race 5    5-9-2-6-10  
Total: $54

Races 7 thru 10
Race 7    8-2-4-5-1-3
Race 8    1-2-6-10-3-4
Race 9    5-3
Race 10  2-11-9-1-10-6
Total: $216
APRIL 20

SPOT PLAYS

Race 7
$20 to Win & Place on #10 FLEET BERTIE (10-1 ML)
$5 Exacta Box 1-7-10 ($30)
$1 Trifecta Key Box 10 with 1,2,7,9,11 ($60)
This mare has been off since October, but the long layoff concern is countered by a series of very solid workouts recently here. I think the firm turf course will suit her well.  

Race 9
$50 to Win & Place on #9 KAHRUMANA (2-1 ML)    CASHED FOR $70.00
$10 Exacta Box 9-12
This Chad Brown filly fought gamely in defeat in her debut race, losing by a neck, Today's competition seems inferior and I look for an improvement in her speed rating and finish, which should easily allow her to handle this field of slower horses.

$0.50 PICK 4's

Races 2 thru 5
Race 2    8-5
Race 3    2-8-3
Race 4    3-5-10
Race 5    3-12-8-6-5-11
Total: $54

Races 6 thru 9
Race 6    3-7-5-9-4-1
Race 7    10-1-7-9-2-11
Race 8    5-2-6-7-4
Race 9    9-12
Total: $180

APRIL 19


SPOT PLAYS


Race 3

$20 to Win & Place on #5 QUALKRIS (6-1 ML)

$5 Exacta Box 2-6    CASHED FOR $177.50

$20 Double 5-6

This filly has improved with every start and solid breezing workouts  suggests another improvement is likely today at a good price. She always has shown the ability to be forwardly placed, but has sustained her position better under the Stidham barn and with the switch to turf. Jockey James Graham jumps on for the first time, and although he has been cold overall lately, he is a quality turf jockey and he and Stidham has paired to win 4 of their last 9 tries on the turf.


Race 6

$50 to Win & Place on #1 KIRBY'S PENNY (2-1 ML)    CASHED FOR $190.00

$10 Exacta Box 1-5-7    CASHED FOR $80.00

$20 Double 1 with 1,9

It is tough to trust any of the horses on the card today as my Best Bet, but I like taking a look at these horses that come back on short notice to get in two races during the Keeneland meet. On opening day, this filly romped to a 10 length win for Wes Ward and then was claimed and given to trainer John Ortiz. Today there is a jump in class and a stretch out to two turns, all indications that this horse is still super sharp and ready to run big again. She gets a more favorable inside post this time, so should have no trouble getting to the front while saving some energy for the stretch under Channing Hill.


$0.50 PICK 4's


Races 2 thru 5

Race 2    9-6-1-7-5-3-8

Race 3    2-6-1

Race 4    6-7-10

Race 5    7-3-5-12-4

Total: $157.50


Races 5 thru 8

Race 5    7-3-5-12

Race 6    1-7-5

Race 7    9-1-11-12-8-6

Race 8    2-9-5-10-8-6-7

Total: $252    CASHED FOR $380.90


APRIL 15

SPOT PLAYS

Race 7
$50 to Win & Place on #6 BIRD SONG (3-1 ML)
$10 Exacta Box 1-4-6
$20 Double 6 with 7,10
What time is it? Alright, y'all he got 24 seconds to get to the quarter pole. Keeneland, have you heard? We got an early pace setter called "the Bird". He don't need no fitness or no versatility, he just needs four legs and a good break and everybody say with me, come on now "Win!" Hallelujah!

Race 11
$20 to Win & Place on #5 THIRTEEN SONGS (10-1 ML)
$5 Exacta 1-5-8
$1 Trifecta Key Box 5 with 1,4,8,12

Here are "thirteen songs" from the last WOXY Modern Rock 500 that would make a fine playlist to describe a day in the Keeneland life of Mr. B.

My Favourite Game - The Cardigans
Bad Luck - Social Distortion
Loser - Beck
Where is My Mind? - Pixies
Divine Hammer - Breeders
Alive - Pearl Jam
Optimistic - Radiohead
The Distance - Cake
Whip It - Devo
Redemption Song - Bob Marley & the Wailers
Get On The Bus - Royal Crescent Mob
Stay Up Late - Talking Heads
Senses Working Overtime - XTC

$0.50 PICK 4's

Races 2 thru 5
Race 2    9-6-10-7-8-4-3
Race 3    5-2-4
Race 4    5-4-9-1
Race 5    1-2-7-10-9-6
Total: $252    CASHED FOR $53.60

Races 7 thru 10
Race 7     6-1-4
Race 8     10-7-12-1-8-4
Race 9      4-10-2-1-5
Race 10    1-6-8-5
Total: $180

Races 8 thru 11
Race 8     10-7-12-1-8-4
Race 9      4-10-2-1-5
Race 10    1-6
Race 11     5-1-8-4-12
Total: $150
APRIL 14

SPOT PLAYS

Race 6
$50 to Win & Place on #9 MOANA (9-5 ML)    CASHED FOR $245.00
$10 Exacta Box 3-4-9
$20 Double 9 with 8,11    CASHED FOR $184.00
This filly is only making her 2nd career start after running 2nd as odds on favorite in Florida last month. Just a repeat of that race would be plenty good enough to handle today's field. Her father, Uncle Mo has been a hot sire, proving that his exciting career ended too early, and Moana looks to have the same fluid running style.  The pace scenario is tough to predict here, but Johnny V rides for Pletcher and they know their way to the winners circle.

Race 9
$20 to Win & Place on #1 BLACKTYPE (6-1 ML)
$5 Exacta Box 1-3-9    CASHED FOR $358.00
$10 Double 1 with 4,6
This looks like a wide open Makers Mark Mile with a lot of very talented horses at a tricky distance. I think Blacktype will be overlooked because he has been away from the races since November and because the #1 post isn't ideal for a horse that comes from off the pace. But he has been working consistently in Florida so he should be a fresh horse and to step up to a Grade 1 try here is a very confident sign from the connections. Rosario rides for the first time, so it will be interesting to see if he takes back as he has in recent races or tries to get him out and on or near the lead from the #1 position. I hope he takes the former option and stays patient with what should be a hot pace up front. This horse has been improving with age.
 
$0.50 PICK 4's

Races 2 thru 5
Race 2    6-4
Race 3    3-4
Race 4    3-5-4-9-7-2-10
Race 5    8-3
Total: $28

Races 7 thru 10
Race 7    8-11-12-14-4
Race 8    2-8-7-9
Race 9    1-3-9-4-8-7
Race 10    6-4-3
Total: $180

APRIL 13

SPOT PLAYS

I like a lot of longshots today, so rather than trying to guess which ones will hit, I will spread with some exotics.

$1 Pick 3s
Race 1    1,3,5,7 w/ 1,3,5 w/ 4,5    Lost $24
Race 2    1,3,5,6 w/ 4,5,8 w/ 3,12    Lost $24
Race 3    4,5,8 w/ 3,12 w/ 10,11    Lost $12
Race 4     3,8,12 w/ 7,10,11 w/ 2,10    Lost $18
Race 5     7,8,10,11 w/ 2,10 w/ 1,5    Lost $16
Race 6     2,3,10 w/ 1,3,5 w/ 1,2     Lost $18
Race 7     1,3,4,5 w/ 1,2,4 w/ 2,13     Lost $24

$1 Trifecta Key Box
Race 2    5 with 1,3,6,8     Lost $36
Race 4    12 with 3,8,11     Lost $18
Race 5    10 with 4,7,8,11     Lost $36
Race 6    10 with 2,3,5      Lost $18

 
$0.50 PICK 4's

Races 2 thru 5
Race 2    5-1-3-6-8-4 
Race 3    4-5-8
Race 4    12-3
Race 5    11-10-7-8-4-1-6
Total: $126

Races 6 thru 9
Race 6    10-2-3-8-6
Race 7    1-5
Race 8    1-2-4-7-11-6
Race 9    13-2-3-10-11
Total: $150    CASHED FOR $553.25
APRIL 12

SPOT PLAYS

Race 3
$20 to Win & Place on #5 BRUNERSTOWN (12-1 ML)  SCRATCHED
$20 Double 5-6
$1 Trifecta Key Box 5 with 2,4,7,8 ($36)
Wednesday Keeneland cards are not the highest quality and this maiden claimer can be won by a longshot with early speed that no horses want to catch or pass late. The addition of Corey Lanerie is a positive and I expect him to start to get into the familiar winner circle a little more as this meet progresses. The gelding is a sprinter with consistent early speed, so setting the pace should be an uncontested task in this route race. Can he last? Legit question but I like the jockey change and the step up in class.

Race 4
$50 to Win & Place on #6 EMPRESSOF THE NILE (2-1 ML)    CASHED FOR $80.00
$20 Exacta Box 2-6 ($40)     CASHED FOR $188.00
$20 Double 6 with 2,9 ($40)
$10 Pick 3 6-9-8
The best winter turf racing happens at Gulfstream Park, so I consider those shippers a notch above the others and this filly has had good couple of efforts in Florida. It looks like she is cycling up to a peak effort today in her third start of the season. Ortiz will have to make sure that the speed horse, #2 Secede, doesn't break away from the pack, but his #6 horse looks the most fit and capable of loving the 1 1/8 Keeneland turf course.  

$0.50 PICK 4's

Races 2 thru 5
Race 2    6
Race 3    5-7-8-4-6
Race 4    6-2-4
Race 5    9-2-1-8-7-3-6
Total: $52.50

Race 5 thru 8
Race 5    9-2-1-8-7-3-6
Race 6    8-5
Race 7    11-4-2-8-6-3
Race 8    1-2-7-3
Total: $168

APRIL 9

SPOT PLAYS

Race 3
$20 Exacta Box 3-4 ($40)
$20 Double 3,4 with 4,9
This is a small six horse field and it really seems to come down to a simple plot of #3 Dear Elaine leading the pace of seeing whether #4 Lady Foghorn can run her down. Trying to get going here with a chalky exacta and setting up a double for the next race.

Race 4
$20 Win & Place on #9 TIPSY KITTEN (8-1 ML)
$20 Double 9 with 8
$1 Trifecta Key Box 9 with 1,2,4 ($18)
Leparoux was hot yesterday with three wins and he is looking like he might be ready to partner up with the Ramsey's for another jockey/owner meet leader title this Spring. This colt makes the second start of his 3yr old season and looks to move forward after chasing horses wide in a 3rd place finish at Gulfstream. There are not as many blue bloods in this maiden special weight as there usually are at Keeneland, so I expect to see another Kitten's Joy colt finally show dominance on the turf and break his maiden today at nice odds.

Race 7
$50 Win & Place on #10 TAKE THE STAND (4-1 ML)
$20 Double 10 with 3,4 ($40)
This horse is probably the classiest horse in the race, taking a shot last year at the prestigious Grade 1 Arlington Million and finishing 3rd in the Baruch Hndicap at Saratoga. Today is the first start in 7 months, but he has been actively training in Florida for Bill Mott and should be ready to run today against an easier field. The outside post is a mild concern given his front running style, but that is offset by the confidence shown in jockey Castellano signing on for the first time with this one.

Race 8
$20 Double 3,4 with 5 ($40)

Race 9
$20 to Win & Place on #5 TICKER TAPE PARADE (12-1 ML)
$1 Trifecta Key Box 5 with 2,3,6,7,10 ($60)
Trainer Tom Proctor does a good job of finding good spots for his horses at Keeneland and there are a lot of signals that he is confident in this horse's chances today at long odds. First, he is stepping up to a tougher MSW here and I think he was encouraged by what he saw in this one's turf debut last out at Tampa. He finished 3rd after a very tough trip where he got bumped and steadied at the start and then got crowded in the upper stretch. Secondly, the workouts have been sharp this year, including a nice bullet work at Keeneland on Friday. And finally, he picks up a top Keeneland jockey in the high percentage winner Florent Geroux.

$0.50 PICK 4

Races 2 thru 5
Race 2    10-11-6
Race 3    4-3
Race 4    9-4-2-6-1-11-12-5
Race 5    8-6-5-3
Total: $96

Races 6 thru 9
Race 6     6-9-13-4
Race 7     10-8-6-1-5-9-2
Race 8     4-3  
Race 9     5-6-3-7-2-9
Total: $168    CASHED FOR $274.30

APRIL 8

SPOT PLAYS

Race 3
$20 to Win & Place on #1 WOODLAND WALK (10-1 ML)
$20 Double 1,2 with 9,12 ($40)
$1 Trifecta Key Box 1 with 2,3,6,7,8 ($60)
Cheap speed always tempts me when I get a good price, and he is one I will try. Hopefully the owners, Dawghouse Stables, fare better than their spring break trip here last year when they were blasted in a Grade 2 turf sprint ("done early" sounds like a happy hour comment line). The gelding has been off since last October, but trainer Doug seems to have found his way to the barn again and has had WW ripping off bullet works at Keeneland North (aka Turfway Park). Interesting side note: the trainer received a one year suspension in 2013 from the West Virginia Racing Commission. One year is a long one...and from a bottom rung circuit...but he has served his time and I'm sure is bringing a fresh horse to Kee. Importantly, this horse can hit the 90 Beyer needed to win this and with a "clean" break from the pole position, he might be able to lead them all of the way if not challenged early. See, it only took me until day 2 of the meet to start taking stabs! 

Race 4
$50 to Win & Place on #12 SWITZERLAND (8-5 ML)
$20 Double 12 with 1,2 ($40)
$10 Exacta Box 9-10-12 ($60)
This colt drew a lot of money at the windows in his debut at GP this winter as an odds on favorite in what likely was better competition than he faces today. He just couldn't get past the winner and was carried out to a 2nd place finish, but those early pace ratings blow away the others in here. He is bred to be a top notch pure sprinter, by Speightstown out of a Indian Charlie mare, and I see a clear lead early and an easy wire-to-wire win. Of course with inexperienced maidens it could always be that they struggle with taking the lead and get a case of that horrible seconditis disease. It's also possible that one of the first-time starters pulls off a freak performance, But looks to me like the best single of the day.


$0.50 PICK 4's

Races 2 thru 5
Race 2    8-2-3-6
Race 3    2-8-3
Race 4    12
Race 5    2-1-8-4
Total: $24

Races 7 thru 10
Race 7     2-7-4-6-9-3
Race 8     6-1-5-4-3
Race 9     2-6-1-3-4
Race 10    4-3
Total: $150

Races 8 thru 11
Race 8     6-1-5
Race 9     2-6-1-3-4
Race 10    4-3-7-6-2
Race 11    2-6-12-7
Total: $150
APRIL 7

SPOT PLAYS

Race 2
$50 to Win & Place on #2 RHODIUM (8-5 ML)    CASHED FOR $140.00
$20 Double 2-2
This old mare keeps milking these starter allowance races and snuck in a cheap claiming race last year to stay eligible to compete against these weaker horses. A short price seems likely, but nothing wrong with cashing a ticket early in a meet. A pretty easy race to forecast it seems -- the mare always breaks well and none of these horses can stick with her early and none are good enough to run her down at the end. If this horse does lose, you have to really take that as a sign to avoid the speed horses for the rest of the day.

Race 5
$10 to Win & Show on #3 SECONDHAND JUSTICE (20-1 ML)
$1 Trifecta Key Box 3 with 5,7,8,10 ($36)
Steps up in class a little bit here, and really probably needs an uncontested lead and a track that is speed favoring to win. But the odds should be rewarding and I think she certainly can improve enough to get into the trifecta.

Race 6
$20 to Win & Place on #6 TAP OF WAR (15-1 ML)
$10 Exacta Box 4-6
$1 Trifecta Key Box 6 with 2,3,4,12 ($36)
This is the only filly in the field without turf experience, but her breeding, War Front out of a Tapit mare, suggests that she should be quite adept at a turf route. She was a debut winner as a 2 year old and recently made a Grade 3 showing last out (toss that poor effort because she had a bad start). She is still lightly raced and the addition of Albarado gives her an experienced Keeneland rider.

$0.50 PICK 4s

Races 2 thru 5
Race 2     2 
Race 3    ALL
Race 4    1-5
Race 5    3-7-5-8
Total: $24

Races 7 thru 10
Race 7     5-13-6-9-12 
Race 8     3-4-6-1-2-7
Race 9     4-5-8
Race 10   11-3-4
Total: $135